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XLF

Financial Select Sector SPDRClose $51.10EOD only
Max Pain
$51.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.72
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.63
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLF options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
XLF Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Iron Condor
Invalidation: Price breaks EM guardrails $50.01/$52.18
Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV above VIX (23.3% vs 18.4%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-week elevated at 21.85%; backwardation from 0d to 7d then contango; favorable for premium selling near term

📊Put IV (101%) vs Call IV (40%) at front exp - extreme skew; selling puts risky but high premium

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-619.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$51.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 218,163 (0.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $52; put OI at $51 (218k) near spot; call wall $55-$60; put floor $43-$48

Verdict: Moderate pin risk: heavy put OI slightly below spot may push price toward $52 max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $52.50/$54.00 call spread
Sell call spread above resistance to profit from bearish bias and volatility decay.
Credit: $0.21-$0.25
Max loss: $1.25
BE: $52.75
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if price breaches 51.50.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $49.50/$48.50 put wing and $52.50/$54.50 call wing
Theta decay between support/resistance with defined risk boundaries.
Credit: $0.35-$0.42
Max loss: $1.58
BE: 49.08 / 52.92
Mgmt: Close if price tests short wings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (77%).; long_put: Wide spread (117%).; long_call: Wide spread (130%).
#3
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $49.50 put / buy 2026-06-18 $50.00 put
Captures theta from front-week decay with back-week protection.
Debit: $0.23-$0.29
Max loss: $0.29
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor pin risk; roll if invalidation level breached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (77%).

Risk Alerts

!High put/call volume ratio (3.75) indicates strong bearish sentiment
!Dealer negative gamma (-$619M) may amplify price moves
!Front-week IV backwardation could decay quickly
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.