ThetaOwl

UNH Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Spot reclaims $275 (max pain for 3/27) on sustained volume, with net premium remaining positive.
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $262.50 (key near-term put strike) on heavy put volume, flipping net premium negative.
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 strong net premium & P/C ratio; +1 GEX/flow alignment; -0.5 spot below max pain; -0.5 gamma pinning regime

Watch next session: $270-$272.50 put activity for gamma pinning; Follow-through in $305+ calls for upside conviction

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$83.4M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.64 — strongly call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.67 — moderate call lean in positioning

Aggressive call buying, particularly in far OTM strikes ($160-$180), drives a massive net bullish premium. This is a clear directional bet on significant upside, though current spot is pinned below near-term max pain, suggesting a short-term tug-of-war.

Notable Prints

#1
UNH 4/17 $340 Put
Vol: 780
OI: 104
Vol/OI: 7.5x
IV: 73.0%
Notional: ~$26.5M (780 * 100 * $340)
Intent: Hedge or speculative put purchase
Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (yield generation on a covered position)

Read-through: High IV (73%) suggests premium paid. Given the massive bullish call flow elsewhere, this is likely a large-scale hedge against a long equity or call position, not a standalone bearish bet.

#2
UNH 4/17 $305 Call
Vol: 1,649
OI: 520
Vol/OI: 3.2x
IV: 43.8%
Notional: ~$50.3M (1649 * 100 * $305)
Intent: Fresh directional call buying
Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout bet) or sold (covered call writing)

Read-through: Large volume in a strike ~13% OTM. The 3.2x OI turnover and moderate IV suggest new long positioning. This is a high-conviction bet on a move toward the $300-$310 OI cluster within the April expiry.

#3
UNH 4/2 $270 Put
Vol: 1,682
OI: 869
Vol/OI: 1.9x
IV: 37.1%
Notional: ~$45.4M (1682 * 100 * $270)
Intent: Short-term hedge or gamma trade
Dual read: Bought (protective put) or sold (put writing for premium)

Read-through: Strike is at-the-money. Volume nearly doubles OI. In a gamma pinning regime with spot at $270.59, this is likely a mix of dealer hedging and short-term protection around the pinning level, not a major directional signal.

#4
UNH 4/10 $260 Put
Vol: 1,858
OI: 998
Vol/OI: 1.9x
IV: 55.9%
Notional: ~$48.3M (1858 * 100 * $260)
Intent: Defensive put buying
Dual read: Bought (downside protection) or sold (cash-secured put)

Read-through: Elevated IV (55.9%) and strike ~4% below spot. This is likely protective positioning defining a near-term risk zone. A break below $260 would invalidate the bullish flow thesis.

#5
UNH 4/2 $262.50 Put
Vol: 1,333
OI: 532
Vol/OI: 2.5x
IV: 47.2%
Notional: ~$35.0M (1333 * 100 * $262.50)
Intent: Near-term hedge or speculative put
Dual read: Bought (bearish bet) or sold (premium sale)

Read-through: Another large, near-dated put print. Clusters of activity at $260 and $262.50 create a defined support zone for the next week, aligning with the expected move low of ~$264.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Massive additions in far OTM $160-$180 calls (net premium >$86M). Meaningful buying in $305 calls for April/May.

Put additions: Concentrated in near-term ($260-$272.5) and defensive OTM ($340) strikes. The $340P and $350P show significant net negative premium.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$9.0M) aligns with bullish call flow, reinforcing the pinning/mean-reverting dynamic near current spot.

OI clusters: Major put wall at $200 (38K OI). Major call walls at $500 (22.6K), $600 (16K), $250 (15K), $900 (14.8K & 12.5K). These are extreme strikes acting as long-term magnets, not near-term barriers.

Hedging evidence: Clear. The large $340P purchase and concentrated put flow at $260-$272.5 against massive OTM call buying is textbook portfolio hedging—levered upside bets with defined downside protection.

Max pain context: Spot ($270.59) is below near-term max pain ($275 for 3/27, $267.50 for 4/2). This creates a short-term gravitational pull higher toward $275, supporting the bullish flow bias.

Signal vs Noise

~Far OTM $160-$180 call flow: This is almost certainly a structured trade (e.g., call spread financing, ratio trade) or leverage play. The notional size is enormous but the delta is minimal. It's a bullish signal but not a direct bet on a move to $160.
~Extreme OI at $500, $600, $900 calls: These are likely legacy positions, buy-writes, or speculative lottery tickets. They represent long-term optimism but provide no actionable near-term signal.
~4/2 $270 Put activity: High volume is partly due to gamma pinning and dealer hedging around the ATM strike. It exaggerates bearish intent.
~The $165 Put 7/17 expiry: Low delta, far OTM. Likely part of a complex multi-leg strategy (e.g., diagonal) and not a standalone directional view.

Key Conclusions

🚀Institutions are placing high-conviction, leveraged bullish bets (far OTM calls) while hedging near-term risk.
📌Gamma pinning (+$9M GEX) and spot below max pain create a short-term setup for a grind higher toward $275.
🛡️Key support zone established at $260-$262.50 via put flow. A break below invalidates the bullish thesis.
🎯Upside targets are being set in the $305-$310 zone for April/May, well above the current pinning range.

Read the Flow analysis for UNH for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.