Term structure: Steeply inverted (49.6% in 2 days down to ~38% in 30-45 days).
Spot vs MP: At max pain $525 (spot $522.71).
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$0.4M — mean-reverting).
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Gamma flip ~$360 is far below spot, indicating pinning/range-bound behavior is the dominant regime near current price.
OI concentrations: Major Put OI: $360 (522), $400 (514), $500 (394). Major Call OI: $300 (1481 - likely erroneous), $565 (663), $450 (608).
#1put spread
Sell $500/$490 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Sells into high IV (~38%) at 45 DTE. Strikes align with major OI put support at $500 and $490. Position is $22 below spot, outside the 10-day expected move ($468-$577).
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if ULTA closes below $510. Assume wide bid-ask; use limit orders.
#2call spread
Sell $540/$545 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Defines risk on the upside near the 24-day expected move top (~$565). The $540 strike is above the near-term max pain levels and recent call walls. Sells elevated IV (~40%).
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit if ULTA closes above $535. Assume wide bid-ask; use limit orders.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $500 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For sellers willing to take assignment. Collects rich premium (~3% of strike) at strong OI support. 45 DTE provides time for theta decay and management. Breakeven is 6.7% below spot.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if tested. Close at 70% profit. Be aware of assignment risk below $500.
#4iron condor (illustrative)
Sell $500/$490P x $540/$545C, exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Illustrative due to low liquidity. Combines the put and call spread ideas into one defined-risk range trade. Capitalizes on pinning regime and high IV. Range ($500-$540) is within expected move.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit entire position if either short strike is breached. Execution may be difficult; leg in separately.
!Low Liquidity / Wide Spreads: Only 38.9K total OI. Credit estimates are theoretical; assume bid-ask spreads >$0.50. Use limit orders.
!Earnings in ~8 Weeks (est. 2026-05-28): Do not hold naked short options through this event. Plan to close or roll out before late May.
!Inverted IV Term Structure: Highest IV is in the front week (49.6%). Selling near-dated premium carries higher gamma risk.
!Unusual Put Flow at $400: Large net premium paid for $400 puts ($724K). Suggests some institutional hedging or bearish bets far below.
!Erroneous OI Alert: $300 Call shows 1,481 OI with minimal volume. This data point may be flawed; ignore it for analysis.
!Gamma Flip Far Below: At ~$360, it's not a near-term threat, but a break below $500 could accelerate selling as dealers become net short gamma.