ULTA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 3; +1 for net premium bearish; +0 for mixed flow regime; -0 for low volume context

Watch next session: Flow around $400-$410 puts; Any OI buildup at the $525 max pain level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$2.3M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.76 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.81 — moderate put lean

Flow is mixed with a bearish tilt in premium. The market is pinned near max pain ($525) with a high volatility regime, suggesting indecision and potential for a sharp move upon resolution.

Notable Prints

ULTA 4/2 $560 Call

Vol: 502

OI: 151

Vol/OI: 3.3x

IV: 32.5%

Notional: ~$28.1K

Intent: Lottery ticket / OTM speculation

Dual read: Bought (bullish bet) or sold (premium collection)

Read-through: Given the low IV (32.5% vs. avg 51%) and OTM nature, this is likely a low-cost, low-probability directional bet for a sharp move higher by Friday. Not a large institutional position.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Top OI calls are far OTM ($300, $565, $450).

Put additions: Significant OI at $360 Put (522) and $400 Put (514). The $400 strike also saw high volume (424).

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially. Positive GEX (+$0.4M) suggests pinning, but bearish net premium and put OI concentration conflict.

OI clusters: Major put walls at $360 (522 OI) and $400 (514 OI). Call walls are less defined but at $565 (663 OI).

Hedging evidence: Yes. The large, long-dated OI in deep OTM puts ($360, $400) is classic portfolio hedging/protection, not a near-term directional bet.

Max pain context: Spot ($522.71) is at the nearest max pain ($525 for 3/27). The overall MP trend is falling ($525 to $470), which is a bearish structural signal.

Signal vs Noise

~The $400 Put with 424 volume vs 514 OI is likely part of rolling or adjusting existing long-dated hedge positions, not new bearish speculation.

~The deep OTM call and put flows in the premium list (e.g., $695, $700, $670) are extremely low probability and likely represent tail-risk hedging or structured product flows, not directional views.

~The high volume in the $410 Call (net +$955K premium) is suspiciously bullish against the broader bearish flow. This could be a spread leg (e.g., call credit spread) or a closing trade, not a standalone bullish bet.

Key Conclusions

🎯Market pinned at max pain ($525) with positive Gamma, favoring mean reversion

🛡️Institutional positioning shows heavy long-dated put hedging ($360, $400 strikes)

⚠️Net premium flow is bearish, but overall volume is low—caution on strong directional reads

📉Falling max pain trend from $525 to $470 is a structurally bearish backdrop

Read the Flow analysis for ULTA for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.