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ULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Close $493.12EOD only
Max Pain
$495.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.65
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ULTA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
ULTA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings inferred for 5/28 (58 days out). Current IV elevated at 51%, but crush play timing is tricky due to distance. Best strategy is a short-dated iron condor targeting the 4/10 expiration expected move, with a longer-dated strangle sale for the earnings crush.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 for sharp IV kink and clear earnings date inference; +0 for mixed flow; -0 for data quality
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at the 5/15 expiration (38.1% IV), strongly suggesting earnings on 5/28. The 4/02 expiration (2 days out) has a 49.6% IV, offering a near-term premium selling opportunity.
🎯Earnings date inferred as 5/28 from IV kink at 5/15 expiration (38.1% vs 43.1% in June).
⚠️Gamma flip at ~$360 is far below spot. A drop to that level would trigger accelerated selling from dealers.
📊Strong historical EPS beat rate (75%) but no price move data. Focus on IV setup over directional bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 51%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$0.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-2.3M, P/C 0.76)
Spot vs MP
Near max pain $525 (spot $522.71)
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Below $360, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-28 (58 days)inferred_from_term_structure

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (10d): ±$29.65 (5.7%)
  • 5/15 (45d): ±$54.50 (10.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/15 (38.1% IV) vs. 6/18 (43.1% IV), confirming inferred earnings date. Front-week (4/02) IV at 49.6% is elevated.

Crush estimate: ~5-8 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~33-35% range

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 0.81 suggests slightly more put hedging, but P/C volume of 0.76 shows more call trading recently.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price history provided to calculate.

Directional bias: Positive EPS surprises in 3 of last 4 quarters.

Key Levels

1$360 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$525 max pain (3/27)
3$560 call OI (663)
4EM 4/10: $492.5 - $552.5

Flow Highlights

Massive net put premium at $695-$700 strikes (~$1.2M net sell).

Likely institutional hedging or far OTM put writing for income.

Large net call premium at $410 ($955K) and $360 ($447K).

Significant bullish flow or call spread buying at lower strikes.

Unusual volume in $560C 4/02 (502 vol vs 151 OI, IV 32.5%).

Earnings-week call buying, but at a discount to ATM IV, possibly a cheap upside lottery ticket.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Pre-Earnings Gamma)
Sell $492.5/$487.5P x Buy $552.5/$557.5C 4/10
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $490.00 - $555.00
Trigger: Enter now, close before 4/10 expiration.
Capitalizes on elevated front-month IV (46.4% for 4/10) and pinning near max pain. Wings calibrated to the expected move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 5.7% expected move ($492.5-$552.5).
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside condor wings, especially below $487.5.
Long-Dated Strangle Sale (Earnings Crush)
Sell $467.5 Put / Sell $577.5 Call 6/18
Credit: $28.00-$32.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $30.00
BE: $437.50 - $607.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before inferred earnings (mid-May).
Targets the IV crush from the elevated 6/18 expiration (43.1% IV) down towards post-earnings levels. Wide wings provide a large buffer.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~16% range post-earnings and IV crushes from ~43%.
Underperforms: Earnings move exceeds ~16% or IV expands further into the event.
Put Ratio Spread (Bearish/Bias Neutral)
Buy 1x $515 Put / Sell 2x $500 Put 4/17
Credit: $1.50-$3.00
Max loss: $13.50
Max gain: Unlimited below $500
BE: $498.50
Trigger: Enter on weakness or if stock approaches $515.
Funded by the high put skew and OI at $500. Profits from a drop to the key $500 level (high OI) and benefits from accelerated decay if pinned there. Aligns with gamma flip risk below $360.
Outperforms: Stock declines moderately to near $500, or collapses below $500.
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $515.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 10-day expected move is ±5.7% ($492.5-$552.5). A break below $490 or above $555 invalidates the short condor.
!IV Crush Timing: The main earnings crush is 58 days away. Short-dated plays risk IV expansion if volatility picks up before the event.
!Liquidity: OI (38,910) and volume (9,160) are moderate. Stick to strikes with high OI ($360P, $400P, $500P, $565C) for better fills.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (1-2% risk) due to the high IV environment and potential for large gaps.

What to Watch

?Spot price action relative to $525 max pain and $520 4/02 max pain.
?IV trajectory in the 4/10 and 5/15 expirations for clues on earnings anticipation.
?Unusual activity in the $560C 4/02 for near-term directional clues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.