Earnings Verdict
Earnings inferred for 5/28 (58 days out). Current IV elevated at 51%, but crush play timing is tricky due to distance. Best strategy is a short-dated iron condor targeting the 4/10 expiration expected move, with a longer-dated strangle sale for the earnings crush.
base 5; +1.5 for sharp IV kink and clear earnings date inference; +0 for mixed flow; -0 for data quality
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at the 5/15 expiration (38.1% IV), strongly suggesting earnings on 5/28. The 4/02 expiration (2 days out) has a 49.6% IV, offering a near-term premium selling opportunity.
🎯Earnings date inferred as 5/28 from IV kink at 5/15 expiration (38.1% vs 43.1% in June).
⚠️Gamma flip at ~$360 is far below spot. A drop to that level would trigger accelerated selling from dealers.
📊Strong historical EPS beat rate (75%) but no price move data. Focus on IV setup over directional bias.
Regime Classification
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$0.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-2.3M, P/C 0.76)
Spot vs MP
Near max pain $525 (spot $522.71)
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Below $360, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-28 (58 days)inferred_from_term_structure
Expected moves:
- 4/10 (10d): ±$29.65 (5.7%)
- 5/15 (45d): ±$54.50 (10.4%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/15 (38.1% IV) vs. 6/18 (43.1% IV), confirming inferred earnings date. Front-week (4/02) IV at 49.6% is elevated.
Crush estimate: ~5-8 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~33-35% range
Skew: P/C OI ratio of 0.81 suggests slightly more put hedging, but P/C volume of 0.76 shows more call trading recently.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price history provided to calculate.
Directional bias: Positive EPS surprises in 3 of last 4 quarters.
Key Levels
1$360 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$525 max pain (3/27)
3$560 call OI (663)
4EM 4/10: $492.5 - $552.5
Flow Highlights
Massive net put premium at $695-$700 strikes (~$1.2M net sell).
Likely institutional hedging or far OTM put writing for income.
Large net call premium at $410 ($955K) and $360 ($447K).
Significant bullish flow or call spread buying at lower strikes.
Unusual volume in $560C 4/02 (502 vol vs 151 OI, IV 32.5%).
Earnings-week call buying, but at a discount to ATM IV, possibly a cheap upside lottery ticket.
Strategies
Short Iron Condor (Pre-Earnings Gamma)
Sell $492.5/$487.5P x Buy $552.5/$557.5C 4/10
Trigger: Enter now, close before 4/10 expiration.
Capitalizes on elevated front-month IV (46.4% for 4/10) and pinning near max pain. Wings calibrated to the expected move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 5.7% expected move ($492.5-$552.5).
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside condor wings, especially below $487.5.
Long-Dated Strangle Sale (Earnings Crush)
Sell $467.5 Put / Sell $577.5 Call 6/18
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before inferred earnings (mid-May).
Targets the IV crush from the elevated 6/18 expiration (43.1% IV) down towards post-earnings levels. Wide wings provide a large buffer.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~16% range post-earnings and IV crushes from ~43%.
Underperforms: Earnings move exceeds ~16% or IV expands further into the event.
Put Ratio Spread (Bearish/Bias Neutral)
Buy 1x $515 Put / Sell 2x $500 Put 4/17
Trigger: Enter on weakness or if stock approaches $515.
Funded by the high put skew and OI at $500. Profits from a drop to the key $500 level (high OI) and benefits from accelerated decay if pinned there. Aligns with gamma flip risk below $360.
Outperforms: Stock declines moderately to near $500, or collapses below $500.
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $515.
Risk Assessment
!Gap Risk: The 10-day expected move is ±5.7% ($492.5-$552.5). A break below $490 or above $555 invalidates the short condor.
!IV Crush Timing: The main earnings crush is 58 days away. Short-dated plays risk IV expansion if volatility picks up before the event.
!Liquidity: OI (38,910) and volume (9,160) are moderate. Stick to strikes with high OI ($360P, $400P, $500P, $565C) for better fills.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (1-2% risk) due to the high IV environment and potential for large gaps.
What to Watch
?Spot price action relative to $525 max pain and $520 4/02 max pain.
?IV trajectory in the 4/10 and 5/15 expirations for clues on earnings anticipation.
?Unusual activity in the $560C 4/02 for near-term directional clues.