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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $738.18EOD only

Max Pain

$735.00

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.62

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-3.18

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

2.57

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Downside lean

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

SPY Theta Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 1.0% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV avg 20.2% vs VIX 17.9 (~2.3% premium, favorable for selling)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-end backwardated with put IV spike (75% on 5/15), then contango; puts elevated near term due to pinning

📈IV above VIX, term structure steep, favorable for premium sellers

⚠️Put IV elevated near term; watch event risk on 5/15 and 5/22

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.4B)

Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,223 (28.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI heavy at $735 (28.6% below spot) and structural put floor $495-$660; call OI sparse

Verdict: High pin risk near $735 due to max pain and put dominance; spot at MP suggests reversion, but gamma flip at $530 provides downside cushion

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $735.00/$733.00 put spread

Sell $735/$733 put spread to collect premium with defined risk.

Credit: $0.52-$0.63

Max loss: $1.37

BE: $734.37

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $735 invalidation level.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $740.00/$742.00 call spread

Sell $740/$742 call spread for defined-risk theta capture.

Credit: $1.15-$1.40

Max loss: $0.60

BE: $741.40

Mgmt: Close if spot exceeds $760.41 invalidation.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-06-05 $735.00/$733.00 put wing and $740.00/$742.00 call wing

Sell both wings for premium with wide range.

Credit: $1.66-$2.03

Max loss: $0.00

BE: 732.97 / 742.03

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; adjust if spot approaches either wing.

Risk Alerts

!Put/Call OI ratio 2.54 indicates heavy dealer hedging pressure from put positions

!Term structure put IV spikes on 5/15 (75%) and 5/22 (47.57%) signal event risk

!Spot at max pain $735 but gamma flip far below; downside protection strong but tail risk exists

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.