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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $686.10EOD only

Max Pain

$674.00

Next expiry Apr 14, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.49

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-12.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.25

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

SPY Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19 (from Pre-Computed Fields)

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 17.7% vs VIX 19.12 — ATM term vols ~15.4% (32d) are depressed relative to VIX

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Term structure is modestly upward sloping into summer (ATM 15.3%–16.4%), little short-dated skew opportunity; near-dated IV very low (1d–7d low single digits to mid-teens).

⚖️Low IV (Avg 17.7%, 32d ATM ~15.4%) reduces per-contract credit but large dealer pinning (GEX +$2.3B) supports range-bound decay

💰Heavy call flow and GEX concentration at $685-$686 provide reliable theta for short calls/wings near spot

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by $9.10 (spot $686.10 vs MP ~$677.00) — ~1.34% above max pain

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$2.3B) — concentrated near-term positive gamma around $685-$686

Gamma flip: ~$535.00 — Gamma flip ~ $535 — well below spot; not a near-term concern for pin dynamics but marks structural long-term put support

OI concentrations: Call OI wall and GEX: $685 (55,531 OI, +$763.9M GEX), $686 (GEX +$474.6M) ; Put clusters concentrated much lower (660/650/635); Max pain ~ $677 across expirations

Verdict: Favorable — strong near-term pin magnets at $685-$686 support defined-risk credit sales (short strikes near those levels), but monitor for movement below $675 area

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 2026-05-15 (32 DTE) 665/660 put spread (30-45 DTE target)

Low IV but strong GEX pinning around $685-$686 and max pain ~677 compresses downside; 665 is inside the 1-week EM lower bound ($675.18) but well above structural put floor, giving asymmetric odds in favor of decay.

Credit: $0.30-$0.45

Max loss: $4.70

BE: 664.70

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; roll down or close if SPY closes below $675.18 (1w lower EM). Cut losses if spread value reaches 60% of max loss or price closes below 660 on daily timeframe.

iron condor

Sell 2026-05-15 (32 DTE) 670/665 put spread + 700/705 call spread (both 5-point wings)

Range trade sized inside the 1-week EM [$675.18-$697.01] with dealer pinning near $685-$686; low IV reduces credit but pinning reduces tail risk for the wings. Balanced risk both sides with defined max loss.

Credit: $1.10-$1.45

Max loss: $3.55

BE: 666.45 / 701.45

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is tested (daily close inside short strikes), tighten stop/close that side or roll 5–10 strikes further out for debit if liquidity allows. Exit full position if SPY closes a day below $665 or above $705.

covered call

Buy 100 shares SPY and sell 2026-05-15 (32 DTE) 695 call (covered call)

Collects elevated call-side flow concentrated around $685-$690; May15 695 provides decent upside buffer inside 1-week upper EM ($697.01) and generates yield in a low-IV environment while keeping upside optionality limited.

Credit: $1.50-$2.10

Max loss: Large (stock downside) — reduced by premium received

BE: Net stock cost minus premium; approx $684.60 - $684.00 depending on premium

Mgmt: Take profit on option premium at 70% of max (close short call); buy back if SPY rallies and closes above 695; cut underlying if SPY closes below $675.18 (protect capital) or hedge with puts if more than 5% drawdown.

calendar (defined timing)

Sell 2026-04-17 (4 DTE) 685 call and buy 2026-05-15 (32 DTE) 685 call (calendar), roll weekly sells

Near-term IV for 4d is low but the heavy short-dated call flow around 685–686 and positive GEX make short weekly calls expensive on the short leg and accelerate theta; low overall IV limits size but repeated weekly sells can compound decay.

Debit: $0.30-$0.70

Max loss: Limited to net debit paid

BE: Requires spot near 685 at short expiry to realize time decay; no single breakeven number (calendar behavior)

Mgmt: Sell next weekly if short leg expires worthless; close calendar if short-dated leg goes deep ITM (short delta >0.35) or if SPY closes outside 1-week EM [$675.18-$697.01]. Cut losses if long-dated leg halves in value or if net debit loss >50%.

Risk Alerts

!Max pain cluster centered ~$677 across expirations — spot above now; sudden weakness into $675 area would threaten short call positions as dealers unwind pinning.

!Low IV environment (Avg IV 17.7%, ATM ~15.4% for 32d) reduces per-contract credit and increases position sizing risk — avoid oversized naked positions.

!GEX pinning concentrated at $685-$686: while helpful for decay, any fast directional thrust away from this magnet (e.g., surprise macro or flows) can accelerate moves due to large DEX exposure.

!Unusual near-dated put flow at $683–$686 (multiple high-volume prints for 4/13–4/14) — could indicate short-term tactical hedges; monitor intraday prints before selling weeklies.

!Gamma flip ~ $535 and structural put floor $495-$650 are far below spot — tail support exists but don't rely on long-dated structural support for short-dated wing risk.

Read the Theta analysis for SPY for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.