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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $744.78EOD only

Max Pain

$743.00

Next expiry Jul 6, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.41

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-1.78

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.35

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Upside lean

Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 2, 2026 close

SPY Theta Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 12, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV (19.0) > VIX (16.7) – elevated premium

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping (contango) from 0d to 12m; put skew elevated across expirations

📊Dealer GEX +$1.7B suggests pinning at $737 max pain

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.7B)

Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,210 (28.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Major put OI at $737 (max pain) and concentration 215k below spot, put floor $520-$660

Verdict: Spot near max pain $737; pin risk elevated due to put OI concentration; gamma flip far below at $530

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-06-18 $740.00/$736.00 put wing and $745.00/$755.00 call wing

Sells OTM put and call spreads to collect premium with wide wings to avoid pin risk.

Credit: $5.90-$7.21

Max loss: $2.79

BE: 732.79 / 752.21

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot reaches $737-745 zone. Adjust wings if volatility spikes.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $740.00/$736.00 put spread

Sells put spread at $740/$736, collecting premium with protection against large drop.

Credit: $1.11-$1.35

Max loss: $2.65

BE: $738.65

Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $737 or gains reached. Consider rolling if breached.

Short strangle

Sell 2026-06-18 $736.00 put + sell $750.00 call

Sells put and call to capture time decay, but exposed to gamma and tail risk.

Credit: $15.61-$19.07

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 716.93 / 769.07

Mgmt: Monitor closely; close at 30% of max gain or if spot approaches strikes. Use stop-loss.

Risk Alerts

!Spot break above $760 or below $730 invalidates pinning thesis

!VIX spike above 20 increases volatility risk

!Gamma flip risk if spot falls below $660 (heavy put OI zone)

!Elevated put skew indicates tail risk; consider hedging downside

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.