base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Upward sloping (contango) from 0d to 12m; put skew elevated across expirations
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.7B)
Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,210 (28.9% below spot)
OI concentrations: Major put OI at $737 (max pain) and concentration 215k below spot, put floor $520-$660
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $740.00/$736.00 put wing and $745.00/$755.00 call wing
Sells OTM put and call spreads to collect premium with wide wings to avoid pin risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot reaches $737-745 zone. Adjust wings if volatility spikes.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $740.00/$736.00 put spread
Sells put spread at $740/$736, collecting premium with protection against large drop.
Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $737 or gains reached. Consider rolling if breached.
#3Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $736.00 put + sell $750.00 call
Sells put and call to capture time decay, but exposed to gamma and tail risk.
Mgmt: Monitor closely; close at 30% of max gain or if spot approaches strikes. Use stop-loss.
!Spot break above $760 or below $730 invalidates pinning thesis
!VIX spike above 20 increases volatility risk
!Gamma flip risk if spot falls below $660 (heavy put OI zone)
!Elevated put skew indicates tail risk; consider hedging downside