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SNDK

Sandisk CorporationClose $1383.29EOD only
Max Pain
$1330.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$124.55
9.0% from close
Price Gap
-53.29
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.38
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SNDK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
SNDK Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected in ~34 days (May 1-6). IV remains extreme (>100%), creating a high-probability IV crush opportunity. The term structure kink at May 1 confirms timing. Best strategy is selling premium via defined-risk iron condors, given the massive expected move and historical tendency for large upside beats.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 6; +1.0 extreme IV (>100%) for crush; +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV >100% across the curve; crush of 20-30 vol points likely post-earnings.
⚠️Earnings date inferred from IV term structure kink at May 1 expiration. Confirm via company IR.
📈Historical EPS beat rate 100% with large surprises. Directional bias is strongly UP.
💥IV >100% is extreme. Even a successful crush play faces large gap risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extreme (IV 100%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$6.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $131.4M, P/C 1.28)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 8.4% (spot $701.59 vs MP $648)
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Gamma flip ~$250 based on put OI concentration; spot far above, so gamma effects minimal near current price.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-06 (34 days)estimated from term structure kink (IV peak at May 1)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (29d): ±$166.60 (23.8%)
  • 5/08 (36d): ±$90.10 (12.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep upward slope to May 1 (106.1%), then decline. Clear kink at May 1 expiration.

Crush estimate: ~20-30 vol points, back to ~75-80% range

Skew: Mixed skew: OTM puts ($250) show massive OI, but near-term premium flow heavily favors calls (e.g., $700C +$11.2M net).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise EM comparison, but beats are large (e.g., +$2.66 vs $0.03 est).

Directional bias: All 4 recent quarters gapped up post-earnings

Key Levels

1$250 (Gamma flip / massive put OI)
2$700 (Call premium flow magnet, spot near)
3EM 5/01: $535 - $870
4MP 5/01: $700

Flow Highlights

$700C: Net premium +$11.2M (largest single-strike flow)

Strong institutional upside bet or hedge; acts as a magnet with spot at $701.59.

$250P: OI=13,761 (largest OI strike, far OTM)

Likely legacy/hedge positions; minimal near-term impact on pricing.

Unusual: $425P 4/10 vol 1,149 vs OI 161 (7.1x) IV 124.6%

Potential far OTM downside protection buying, but could be a roll.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Defined Risk, Wide Wings)
Sell $550P / Buy $500P x Sell $850C / Buy $900C 5/01
Credit: $18.00-$25.00
Max loss: $32.00
Max gain: $18.00
BE: 532.0 / 868.0
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings if IV remains >100%
Captures extreme IV with wings just outside the 23.8% EM. Defined risk protects against catastrophic gap. Historical upside bias suggests wider call wing.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $550 and $850 (21.6% move either way), IV crushes
Underperforms: Move exceeds 30%+ in either direction
Short Strangle (High Premium Capture)
Sell $500P / Sell $800C 5/01
Credit: $28.00-$38.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $28.00
BE: 472.0 / 828.0
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings, size small
Maximizes premium capture from >100% IV. Breakevens are ~32% from spot, providing a large buffer. Best for high-conviction range-bound play.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $472-$828, IV crushes 20+ points
Underperforms: Gap exceeds 30%+ move, blowout earnings
Bull Put Spread (Directional Bias Play)
Sell $600P / Buy $550P 5/01
Credit: $12.00-$18.00
Max loss: $38.00
Max gain: $12.00
BE: 588.0
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $680
Leverages historical 100% beat rate and upside bias. Lower risk than naked short put, defined loss. Collects high IV premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $600, continues uptrend post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $600, earnings disappoint

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Extreme — 23.8% EM implies a $167 move. A blowout beat could exceed 30% given history.
!IV crush: High probability — IV >100% unsustainable post-event. Expect 20-30 point drop, but timing is key.
!Liquidity: Good — 182 active strikes, 370k OI. Wide spreads on far OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Keep position small (<2% risk capital) due to tail risk from massive EM.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May — if it climbs further, crush play improves.
?Spot vs $700 — call wall and premium flow may act as a magnet/pinning zone.
?Unusual OTM call activity (e.g., $950C 4/10 vol 1,052 vs OI 282) for sentiment clues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.