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SNDK

Sandisk CorporationClose $1383.29EOD only
Max Pain
$1330.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$124.55
9.0% from close
Price Gap
-53.29
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.38
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SNDK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
SNDK Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected in ~36 days (May 1-6). IV is extremely elevated (100%+), creating a high-probability IV crush opportunity. The term structure shows a clear kink around the May 1 expiration, confirming the earnings timing. Best strategy is selling premium via strangles or iron condors, given the massive expected move and historical tendency to under-move.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 6; +0.5 high IV for crush; +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV >100% across the curve; crush of 20+ vol points likely post-earnings.
⚠️Earnings date inferred from IV term structure kink at May 1 expiration. Confirm via company IR.
📈Historical EPS beat rate 100% with large surprises. Directional bias is UP.
💥IV >100% is extreme. Even a successful crush play faces large gap risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extreme (IV 100%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$6.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$267.4M, P/C 1.05)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 1.9% ($635.34 vs $648)
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Gamma flip ~$250 based on put OI concentration; spot far above, so gamma effects minimal near current price.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-06 (36 days)estimated from term structure kink (IV peak at May 1)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$169.35 (26.7%)
  • 5/08 (38d): ±$121.80 (19.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep upward slope to May 1 (106.0%), then gradual decline. Clear kink at May 1 expiration.

Crush estimate: ~20-30 vol points, back to ~75-80% range

Skew: Mixed skew: OTM puts ($250) show massive OI, but near-term premium flow favors calls ($700C huge net premium).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise EM comparison, but beats are large (e.g., +$2.66 vs $0.03 est).

Directional bias: All 4 recent quarters gapped up post-earnings

Key Levels

1$250 (Gamma flip / massive put OI)
2$700 (Call premium flow magnet)
3EM 5/01: $465.99 - $804.69
4MP 5/01: $700

Flow Highlights

$700C 5/01: Net premium +$46.9M (largest single-strike flow)

Institutional upside bet or hedge; acts as a magnet.

$250P: OI=13,729 (largest OI strike, far OTM)

Likely legacy/hedge positions; minimal near-term impact.

Unusual: $1000C 4/10 vol 3,211 vs OI 101 (31.8x)

Lottery ticket buying for a massive earnings gap up.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $500P / Sell $800C 5/01
Credit: $25.00-$35.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $30.00
BE: 470.0 / 830.0
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV remains >100%
Captures extreme IV with wide wings beyond the 26.7% EM. Historical beats support upside, but strangle gives room.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $470-$830, IV crushes 20+ points
Underperforms: Gap exceeds 30%+ move, blowout earnings
Iron Condor (Defined Risk)
Sell $550P / Buy $500P x Sell $750C / Buy $800C 5/01
Credit: $12.00-$18.00
Max loss: $38.00
Max gain: $15.00
BE: 538.0 / 762.0
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings
Defined risk version of strangle. Tighter range but protects against catastrophic gap. Profitable if move is less than half the EM.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $550 and $750 (13.4% move either way)
Underperforms: Move exceeds 18%
Long Put Diagonal (Hedge/Downside Play)
Buy $600P 5/01 (IV 106%) / Sell $600P 4/10 (IV 92%)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Uncapped below short strike minus debit
BE: ~$590 at 4/10 expiry
Trigger: Enter if spot rallies into earnings near $700 call wall
Capitalizes on high IV term structure (sell lower IV, buy higher IV). Provides cheap downside exposure if IV crush is asymmetric.
Outperforms: Stock drops sharply post-earnings, IV crush hurts short leg less
Underperforms: Stock rallies or pins, time decay on long leg

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Extreme — 26.7% EM implies a $169 move. A blowout beat could exceed 30%.
!IV crush: High probability — IV >100% unsustainable post-event. Expect 20-30 point drop.
!Liquidity: Good — 244 active strikes, 431k OI. Wide spreads on far OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Keep position small (<2% risk capital) due to tail risk from massive EM.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May — if it climbs further, crush play improves.
?Spot vs $700 — call wall may act as a magnet/pinning zone.
?Unusual OTM call activity (e.g., $1000C) for sentiment clues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.