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SNDK

Sandisk CorporationClose $1542.24EOD only
Max Pain
$1345.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$64.70
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-197.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
53
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.41
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SNDK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
SNDK Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/30 or 5/6 (no explicit date). IV extremely elevated (ATM 106.4% for 4/10), with a steep term structure indicating a massive IV crush post-earnings. Best strategy is a reverse calendar spread to harvest the vol differential. Key risk is a large gap beyond the expected move.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.8% from MP
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 4/10 (106.4% vs 99.5% for 4/17), a 6.9 vol-point drop, signaling a clear crush opportunity.
📅Earnings date provided as 2026-04-30 (EPS Est: $13.93); confirm timing.
⚠️Spot $724.63 is 7.8% above max pain $672.50, increasing pin risk downward.
📊Steep IV term structure (106.4% vs 99.5%) offers clear reverse calendar spread opportunity.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$575.00 — Below $575, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (24 days)provided in earnings data (EPS Est: $13.93)

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (4d): ±$64.40 (8.9%)
  • 2026-04-17 (11d): ±$99.75 (13.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 4/10 ATM IV 106.4% vs 4/17 99.5% (6.9 vol-point drop) and 4/24 97.7% (8.7 vol-point drop).

Crush estimate: ~6-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~100% levels.

Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C volume ratio 1.11).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; historical earnings data lacks price move info.

Directional bias: Not provided; all recent EPS surprises positive.

Key Levels

1$750.00 (GEX pin magnet, call OI cluster)
2$730.00 (GEX pin magnet, near spot)
3$575.00 (put OI cluster, gamma flip)
4$500.00 (put floor, OI cluster)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $750C 4/10 buying (1,636 vol vs 908 OI, net premium +$19.2M)

Large bullish flow targeting upside through earnings.

Unusual $750C 4/24 activity (Vol=2,220 vs OI=195, 11.4x)

Institutional upside bet for post-earnings period.

Strategies

Reverse calendar spread (IV crush harvest)
Sell $730 straddle 4/10 (IV 106.4%) / Buy $730 straddle 4/17 (IV 99.5%)
Credit: $5.00-$7.00
Max loss: $20.00
Max gain: $7.00
BE: Spot near $730 with IV crush >5 vol pts
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings
Directly exploits steep term structure contango (106.4% vs 99.5%) for IV decay.
Outperforms: IV crushes as expected (6.9+ vol-point drop) and spot stays near $730
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond EM bounds ($660.23-$789.03) or IV stays elevated
Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $660/$640P x $790/$810C 4/10
Credit: $8.00-$10.00
Max loss: $22.00
Max gain: $9.00
BE: $652.00
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV >100%
IV crush play; elevated IV (106.4%) and pinning regime support premium decay.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($660.23-$789.03)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >15%
Long strangle (directional bet)
Buy $700P x $750C 4/10
Max loss: $64.40
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 635.6/814.4
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV hasn't spiked further
Historical EPS beat rate positive; flow shows bullish bias but skew favors puts.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >20%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $730, IV crushes sharply

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 8.9% EM for 4/10, but historical volatility high (IV 102.9%) could lead to larger move.
!IV crush may be severe post-earnings; long premium strategies need >30% move to profit.
!Liquidity: OI 404K, volume 112K — moderate but watch wide bid-ask spreads on OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Reduce position size due to elevated volatility and potential for outsized moves.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/10 expiration
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $545P 4/10)
?Spot vs $730 and $750 GEX levels
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.