SE Theta Gang Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
Theta Verdict
Confidence:3 / 10
base 2; +1 high IV; +1 pinning regime; -1 low liquidity
IV Environment
IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 65% — Extremely elevated. Favorable for premium selling.
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Humped at 45-80 DTE (IV ~61-66%), lower in near-term and far-dated.
IV >60% across most expirations provides rich premium.
Low liquidity may cause wide bid-ask spreads.
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: At max pain ($82.00 vs spot $82.81).
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$572K).
Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Below $80, negative gamma could accelerate selling.
OI concentrations: Call wall $87.50 (6.6K OI), Put wall $80.00 (2.8K OI).
Verdict: Favorable — Spot at max pain with positive GEX suggests a pinning environment, supportive of credit strategies.
Premium Opportunities
#1
put spread
Sell $80/$75 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Targets major OI support at $80 (2.8K OI) below the gamma flip. High IV (~62%) provides good credit. Defined risk suits low-liquidity chain.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if SE closes below $80. Assume wide bid-ask (~$0.30).
#2
cash-secured put
Sell $75 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
High IV yields substantial premium. Strike is 9.4% below spot and below the $80 gamma flip, providing a buffer. Suitable for those willing to take assignment.
Mgmt: Roll down/out if put tested. Close at 70% profit. Be aware of wide spreads (~$1.00).
#3
call credit spread
Sell $87.50/$90 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Targets the massive call OI wall at $87.50 (6.6K OI). Shorter DTE capitalizes on theta decay in a pinning regime. Defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit. Exit if SE closes above $87.50. Assume wide spreads (~$0.20).
#4
iron condor (illustrative)
Sell $75/$80P x $87.5/$92.5C, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Illustrative only. Places short strikes at key OI levels ($80P, $87.5C) within the expected move ($68.61 - $97.01). High IV boosts credit.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if any short strike is breached. Execution risk is high due to low liquidity and 4 legs.
Risk Alerts
Low Liquidity: With 167,851 total OI, bid-ask spreads are wide. All credit estimates are theoretical and execution may be poor.
Gamma Flip at $80: A close below $80 could trigger accelerated selling as dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing to amplifying moves.
Earnings 5/12 (est.): ~6 weeks out. Avoid selling naked options into this event. Close or roll positions before the announcement.
Unusual Put Flow: Large premium flow into Dec 2026 $70 Puts ($-4.9M net) suggests institutional downside hedging.
Volatility Skew: High IV in mid-dated expirations (May-Jun) may compress if volatility normalizes, leading to IV crush on long-dated shorts.
Read the Theta Gang analysis for SE for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.