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SE

Sea LimitedClose $86.55EOD only

Max Pain

$90.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.45

4.0% from close

Price Gap

+3.45

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.68

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward drift bias toward $85-$88, but trapped in a high-volatility, pinning regime. Confidence: 6/10. The market is structurally anchored near-term by dealer gamma and max pain, but elevated IV and mixed flow create a noisy, range-bound environment.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6. GEX positive supports pinning/range, but net premium negative and IV >60% indicate high uncertainty and potential for violent moves. The rising max pain trend provides a multi-week bullish undercurrent.

Supports: GEX +$572K (pinning), spot at max pain ($82), rising MP trend to $100+
Conflicts: Net premium -$4M (bearish flow), IV 65% (extremely high), P/C vol 0.58 (call-heavy but premium negative suggests selling)

📌Strong pin at $82-$80 via GEX and OI.

⚠️IV 65% — extreme volatility priced in.

📈Max pain ladder rises to $100+ — structural bullish gravity.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 65% is extremely high — favors selling premium for decay, but tail risk is elevated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$572K concentrated near $80 — strong pinning force, dealers are long gamma and will hedge to suppress volatility.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C vol 0.58 shows call volume dominance, but net premium -$4M implies those calls were likely sold (covered or naked).

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $82.81, directly aligned with near-term max pain — reinforces the pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a clear, sustained upward trend from $82 to $100+ over the next 16 expirations. GEX sign is positive and stable, and the flow regime (net premium negative, call OI building) supports a gradual, volatility-suppressed grind higher. This is not a one-week pin event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$80.37$85.24

Gamma pin dominates; break below $80.37 (EM low) triggers dealer hedging sell-off toward $80 support.

Next 1 week

$77.43$88.19

Max pain drift higher to $85 (4/17) and $88 (4/24) provides directional gravity; resistance at $87.50 OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$75.79$89.82

Rising max pain trend and structural call OI walls ($88-$240) act as magnets; failure below $77.43 (1w EM low) invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $82 (2026-03-27); $80 (2026-04-02); $82 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $80.37/$85.24; 1w $77.43/$88.19

Support: $80.00

Resistance: $87.50 · $240.00 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,778

Structural: **Call OI walls** at $87.50, $100, and the extreme $240 are multi-expiration caps. The **$80 put OI** (2,778 contracts) is the near-term floor. The rising max pain ladder ($82 → $100+) is the most important structural signal, indicating where pin gravity shifts over time.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+572K

DEX: +5.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,778)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$572K is concentrated around $80 (put OI of 2,778). Dealers are long gamma here, meaning they sell into rallies and buy dips to hedge, **amplifying the pin**. A move **below $80** flips gamma sign, potentially accelerating a sell-off as dealers sell spot to delta-hedge.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 65% is extreme — stock-specific vol is rich versus any broad market measure. This provides a strong edge to **premium sellers** if you believe the pin holds.

Term structure: **Humped**: Near-term (2d-17d) IV ~52-53%, then a **massive spike to 61.7% at the 45 DTE (5/15)** expiry, which aligns with the next earnings season (est. 5/12). This is a classic earnings vol kink.

Skew: The ~8-9 vol-point differential between the 5/15 expiry (~62%) and surrounding months presents a **calendar spread opportunity**. Sell the rich 5/15 vol, buy a lower-IV expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$4.0M bearish. P/C vol 0.63 and P/C OI 0.74 show more call activity, but the negative premium suggests these are likely **call sales** (covered calls or naked writes) rather than bullish bets.

Directional prints: 1) **$97.50 Call**: +$6.06M net premium — large, likely **sold** given overall net premium negative. 2) **$70 Put (Dec '26)**: -$4.87M net premium, 5K vol vs 179 OI — could be a long-term protective put purchase or a bullish put sale. Given the context, **bullish put sales** are more consistent with the rising MP thesis.

Unusual: **$70 Put Dec '26**: Volume 5,003 vs OI 179 (27.9x) at IV 59.6%. This is a structural position — either a multi-month hedge or a premium sale far OTM.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$80**: Break below triggers dealer delta-hedge selling, could accelerate downward move.

!**Extreme IV (65%)**: While good for sellers, a volatility spike (VIX surge) could cause severe mark-to-market losses on short premium positions.

!**Earnings Volatility (est. 5/12)**: The kink in term structure at May expiries prices in an event; pinning regime may break ahead of it.

!**Macro / Sector Drag**: If broad market sells off, the high IV could lead to disproportionate downside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	GEX positive supports range, but VIX context unknown and IV >60% adds tail risk. Edge is Moderate-Weak due to high IV alone.	Vol expansion breaks wings; gamma flip at $80.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $80/$75 put spread (4/17 or 4/24). Benefits from pinning, high IV, and aligns with rising MP trend. Defined risk below key $80 support.	Spot breaks below $80, triggering gamma flip and put wall breach.
Covered call	Strong	Own stock, sell the $87.50 or $90 call (4/17 or 4/24). Ideal for harvesting extreme IV while participating in bullish MP drift. Strike targets OI wall/resistance.	Capped upside if stock rallies sharply through resistance.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buying premium in 65% IV is expensive. Only consider if playing for a breakout above $88. Prefer call spreads to reduce cost.	Vol crush and time decay are severe headwinds.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Contrarian to regime (GEX+, rising MP). Only for hedging. If needed, buy $80/$75 put spread.	Pinning and positive drift work against it.
Calendar/diagonal spread	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell the rich 5/15 $85 Call (IV ~62%), buy the 4/24 $85 Call (IV ~52%). Bets on vol differential compression post-earnings or as pin holds. ~10 vol pts edge.	Directional move through strike hurts; pin break.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $70 Call (IV ~62%), finance by selling monthly calls (e.g., 4/24 $87.50). Leverages long-dated bullish MP trend and high IV for premium. DTE aligns with structural thesis.	Capital intensive; high LEAPS IV; sideways action hurts.
Short stock	Weak	Against positive GEX, rising MP, and pinning. High borrow cost likely in high-IV name.	Squeeze risk into pinning gravity upward.
Long stock	Moderate	With a covered call overlay. Direct exposure to bullish MP drift, but high volatility makes for a bumpy ride.	Stock-specific downside unrelated to pin.

Top Plays

Covered Call (Stock + Call Sale)

Buy SE at market (~$82.81), sell the $87.50 Call exp 4/24.

**Why it has edge**: Perfectly expresses the multi-week regime: long delta for the rising max pain drift, short premium to harvest extreme 65% IV, and strike targets the key $87.50 OI wall/resistance. It's a high-probability income play in a pinning environment.

Credit: $2.50-$3.00

Max loss: $82.81

BE: $80.31

Mgmt: Take profit: Buy back call at 50% of credit received. Adjust/roll: If stock approaches $87.50, roll up and out for more credit. Exit: If stock closes below $80 (gamma flip).

Investors already bullish on SE or willing to establish a position; aims to reduce cost basis and generate yield in a high-vol name.

Bull Put Spread

Sell $80 / Buy $75 Put Spread exp 4/24.

**Why it has edge**: Defined-risk premium sale that benefits from all key regime features: positive GEX (pinning), high IV (credit rich), and placement just above the critical $80 gamma flip and support level. It's a bet the pin holds and drifts higher, not that it rockets up.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $78.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 70% of max credit. Exit immediately if spot closes below $80. Do not roll for a credit if breached.

Traders who want defined risk, high IV premium capture, and a bullish-to-neutral bias without owning stock.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Vol Convergence)

Sell 5/15 $85 Call (IV ~62%), Buy 4/24 $85 Call (IV ~52%).

**Why it has edge**: A 30+ DTE trade targeting the **8-10 vol point differential** in the term structure. It bets the elevated May IV (pricing earnings) will fall relative to April IV as we approach the pin expiry or if earnings fear subsides. It's a non-directional vol trade that benefits from the pinning regime suppressing near-term vol.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: Debit Paid

BE: Complex — depends on vol change and spot at short expiry.

Mgmt: Close for profit if the IV differential halves (~4-5 pts). Manage before May earnings. Exit if spot makes a sustained move beyond $75 or $90.

Advanced traders comfortable with calendar spreads; those who want to trade the rich earnings vol without a directional view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot bounces off $80.50 support and holds for 1 hour → Enter Bull Put Spread: Sell $80/Buy $75 Put, exp 4/24.

IFIf spot breaks above $85.50 (through 2d EM high) on increasing volume → Consider a Call Debit Spread: Buy $87.50 / Sell $92.50 Call, exp 4/24, targeting OI wall at $87.50.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $80.00 (gamma flip & key support) → Exit ALL short premium positions (put spreads, covered calls, condors).

EXITIf you hold a bull put spread and it reaches 70% of max profit → Close the position to lock in gains.

Tactical Summary

Thesis: SE is pinned near $82 with a structural, multi-week bullish drift guided by a rising max pain ladder toward $100. The regime favors selling premium (high IV) and long delta with a call cap (covered calls). Invalidation is a close below $80. Top Plays: 1) Covered Call ($87.50 strike) for stock owners, 2) Bull Put Spread ($80/$75) for defined-risk premium sellers, 3) Reverse Calendar to trade the rich May volatility kink.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.