SE Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -0.5 mixed premium flow; -0.5 spot at max pain; +0.5 significant bearish prints

Watch next session: Spot reaction around $80 gamma flip level; Any follow-on volume in the Dec $70 puts; Net premium flow direction for the day

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$4.0M mixed

P/C volume ratio: 0.58 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.74 — moderate put lean in positioning

Volume shows call dominance, but net premium is negative and the largest single prints are bearish, long-dated puts. This creates a mixed picture where short-term traders are active in calls, but larger, more strategic positioning is defensive.

Notable Prints

SE 12/18/26 $70 Put

Vol: 5,003

OI: 179

Vol/OI: 27.9x

IV: 59.6%

Notional: ~$4.97M (based on ~$994 premium)

Intent: Strategic, long-dated downside protection or outright bearish bet.

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to close (bullish). The massive volume vs. OI and high IV environment strongly suggests new bearish positioning.

Read-through: This is a major, high-conviction bet for a move below $70 by December. It's not a near-term hedge; it's a 9-month view.

SE 4/2/26 $80 Put

Vol: 281

OI: 122

Vol/OI: 2.3x

IV: 48.6%

Notional: ~$140K (based on ~$0.50 premium)

Intent: Near-term hedge or speculative bet on a break below $80.

Dual read: Likely bought to open as a short-dated hedge given proximity to spot and the $80 gamma flip level.

Read-through: Supports the bearish thesis for a move to or below $80 in the immediate term, aligning with the gamma flip estimate.

SE 10/16/26 $115 Call

Vol: 200

OI: 111

Vol/OI: 1.8x

IV: 60.0%

Notional: ~$7.8K (based on ~$0.039 premium)

Intent: Lottery ticket long-dated call.

Dual read: Bought (bullish optimism) or sold (income generation). The low premium suggests this is a low-cost, high-risk bet.

Read-through: Noise in comparison to the large put prints. Represents a small, speculative bullish view far out of the money.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minor activity in OTM calls ($97.50, $145). The $97.50 call saw the highest net positive premium, but this is likely part of a spread or covered call.

Put additions: Significant long-dated put buying at $70 (Dec '26) and defensive flow in the $80 (Apr '26) strike. Top premium flow is negative for deep OTM puts ($120, $140, $150, etc.), indicating institutional selling of far OTM protection or closing of old positions.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially. Positive GEX (+$0.6M) suggests a pinning/pull-to-max-pain effect, which is consistent with spot at $82 (max pain). However, the large bearish put flow contradicts a purely bullish pinning thesis, suggesting some players are hedging against or betting on a breakdown.

OI clusters: Major call wall at $87.50 (6.6K OI), providing resistance. Major put support at $80 (2.8K OI) and $100 (4.9K OI). The $80 cluster is the near-term gamma flip and key support.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The 5,000-lot Dec $70 put is a clear, large-scale hedge or directional bet. The Apr $80 put flow is nearer-term hedging activity.

Max pain context: Spot ($82.81) is essentially at the immediate max pain ($82), reinforcing the pinning regime. The max pain trend rises to $100+ in later months, suggesting the market sees higher pain points further out, but near-term is trapped.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive net positive premium at the $97.50 call is likely a covered call write or part of a call spread, not outright bullish buying. The premium is high because the strike is near the edge of the expected move.

~Negative net premium in deep OTM puts ($120, $140, $150, $180) is likely institutional sellers closing out old, profitable long-put positions or selling far OTM protection for income, not new bearish bets.

~The $115 call volume is negligible in notional value and is typical lottery-ticket noise in a high-IV name.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Major bearish signal from 5,000-lot Dec $70 put purchase. This is a high-conviction, long-dated bet for significant downside.

📌Spot pinned at max pain ($82) with positive GEX, creating a near-term tug-of-war between pinning forces and bearish flow.

🛡️Institutions are adding near-term ($80) and long-term ($70) downside protection, indicating defensive positioning despite the pin.

🧱Key technical levels: $87.50 call wall (resistance), $80 put cluster/gamma flip (critical support). Break of $80 confirms bearish flow.

Read the Flow analysis for SE. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.