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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $716.38EOD only

Max Pain

$723.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.01

1.4% from close

Price Gap

+6.62

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.49

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

QQQ is bearish into June op-ex with spot below max pain ($718) and negative gamma (-$1.0B GEX). High put OI and trending regime favor further downside toward $675.23 support over 2 weeks, though near-term range-bound.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; GEX/flow aligned +2; spot 1.6% from MP +0.5; VIX 18 +0.5

Supports: Negative GEX, spot below max pain, trending gamma, heavy put OI
Conflicts: Mixed flow, normal vol, proximity to support levels

🐻Spot below max pain ($718) with trending gamma signals bearish pin pressure

⚡Gamma flip at $660 could accelerate selloff if support breaks

⚖️Mixed flow keeps bias tentative; avoid aggressive shorts near support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal; VIX at 18.4 above median but not extreme, QQQ IV in typical range

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending negative (-$1.0B GEX) with flip near $660 (put concentration 195,483)

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed; no strong directional bias, put/call activity balanced

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below max pain ($718/$723/$709), near lower guardrail $695.82

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near monthly op-ex (June 26) with concentrated put OI and negative gamma, suggesting directional risk into expiry

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$695.82$717.23

Test $695.82 support; expiry pin action

Next 1 week

$697.48$715.57

Post-op-ex selling continued to $700/$680

Next 2 weeks

$675.23$737.81

Breakdown to $675.23 if gamma persists; upside capped at $718

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $718 (2026-06-26); $723 (2026-06-29); $709 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $695.82/$717.23; 1w $697.48/$715.57

Support: $700.00 · $680.00 · $675.23

Resistance: $718.00 · $737.81

Gamma flip: ~$660.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 195,483 (6.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: $700, $680, $675.23; Resistance: $718 (max pain), $737.81; Gamma flip $660; Guardrails: 2d $695.82-$717.23, 1w $697.48-$715.57

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.0B

DEX: +256.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$660 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 195,483 (6.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma -$1.0B GEX, long delta +256.4M shares; gamma flip ~$660 from put concentration (195,483 OI). Dealers sell into weakness, amplifying downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: QQQ IV rich vs VIX given negative gamma positioning, inflating option prices near expiry

Term structure: Steep front-month due to op-ex uncertainty; normalizes after

Skew: Put skew elevated from heavy put OI; put spreads attractive vs outright longs

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$1.09B; P/C vol ratio 1.19, OI ratio 1.48.

Directional prints: 28.2 put 712 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 265k vs OI 3k (85.8x). Likely bought to open; bearish buy. 25.4 put 711 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 253k vs OI 3.2k (78.3x). Likely bought to open; bearish.

Unusual: 6.4 call 712 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 257k vs OI 873 (295.2x). Extreme unusual activity; likely sold to open; bearish. 7.6 call 713 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 260k vs OI 1.4k (187.4x). Unusually high vol/OI; likely sold to open; bearish. 8.6 call 714 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 246k vs OI 1.9k (130.4x). Unusually high vol/OI; likely sold to open; bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $660 may trigger accelerated selling if broken

!Mixed flow can cause volatility whipsaws

!Post-op-ex volatility compression reduces move potential

!Broader market weakness (SPY -0.72%) could exacerbate losses

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $709.00/$699.00 put spread Why now: Negative gamma, high put OI, flow bearish; spread caps upside risk.	Rally above short strike or time decay if sideways.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-10 $709.00 put Why now: High put volume and negative gamma support acceleration; limited cost.	Time decay if move delayed; needs significant drop to profit.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $709.00/$699.00 put spread

Buy $709 put, sell $699 put to cap cost and define reward.

Why this play: Negative gamma and high put OI favor downside; spread limits risk while targeting $675 support.

Debit: $3.57-$4.36

Max loss: $4.36

BE: $704.64

Mgmt: Exit near target or if QQQ rallies above $718 invalidation.

Traders seeking bearish exposure with defined risk.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-10 $709.00 put

Buy $709 put for direct bearish exposure.

Why this play: High put volume and negative gamma support acceleration; unlimited upside potential but higher cost.

Debit: $14.31-$17.48

Max loss: $17.48

BE: $691.52

Mgmt: Set stop above $718; profit take at $690 or lower.

Aggressive traders expecting sharp decline.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF QQQ breaks below $700 support → Enter bear put spread: buy $709 put, sell $699 put for net debit 3.57-4.36, target $680.

IFIF QQQ breaks below $700 support → Enter long put: buy $709 put for debit 14.31-17.48, target $690.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF QQQ reaches $680 support or lower → Take profit on bear put spread and long put positions.

EXITIF QQQ rallies above $718 invalidation → Close all bearish positions.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias into June op-ex with negative gamma, high put OI, spot below max pain ($718). Targets $675.23 support. Use bear put spread (rank 1) for defined risk or long put (rank 2) for aggressive. Invalidation above $718. Gamma flip at $660 if broken accelerates selling.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.