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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $740.62EOD only

Max Pain

$732.00

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.89

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-8.62

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.59

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

QQQ at Max Pain $738 with negative gamma -$182.5M and mixed flow. Trending regime favors downside; breakdown below $730 likely targets $718.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5 -1 GEX +1 MP +1 VIX =6. No override.

Supports: Spot at MP $738; VIX 17; within 2d range.
Conflicts: Negative gamma -$182.5M; trending regime; mixed flow.

📌Spot pinned at $738 Max Pain expiry.

📉Short gamma $182.5M; breakdown below $738 accelerates selling.

⚖️VIX 17 offers moderate hedge costs.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal: IV near typical; VIX 17 moderate.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$182.5M; trending bias; gamma flip ~$660.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: net premium uncertain; dealer long delta, short gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

At $738 Max Pain; pin potential near expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiry proximity and MP pin encourage short-term rangebound.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$730.56$745.35

Target $718 below $730.

Next 1 week

$718.57$757.34

Downside toward $718.57.

Next 2 weeks

$705.69$770.21

Potential to $705.69 if selling continues.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $738 (2026-06-22); $735 (2026-06-23); $732 (2026-06-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $730.56/$745.35; 1w $718.57/$757.34

Support: $705.69 · $700.00 · $680.00

Resistance: $738.00 · $770.21 · $800.00

Gamma flip: ~$660.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 194,804 (10.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: 718, 705.69, 680; Resistance: 738 (MP), 770.21, 800; Gamma flip ~660.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-182.5M

DEX: +235.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$660 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 194,804 (10.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma -$182.5M, long delta +235.7M; trending risk below $660.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: QQQ IV moderate vs VIX 17; fairly priced.

Term structure: Contango; near-term premium from event risk.

Skew: Mild put skew; sell puts below support if bullish.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $18M with 1.54 put/call OI ratio, suggesting aggressive call buying despite put-heavy open interest.

Directional prints: 2.7 call 737 ITM 6/22 — 507k vs 2.7k OI (187x vol/OI), likely new call buying for upside; risk of close if short, but low OI suggests opening. 1.6 call 738 OTM 6/22 — 347k vs 1.8k OI (193x vol/OI), massive OTM call volume, aggressive bullish bet; high chance of directional. 2.9 put 736 OTM 6/22 — 343k vs 3.4k OI (100x), heavy put volume near zero premium; likely sold puts (bearish hedging) or bought as cheap lotto.

Unusual: 1.6 call 738 OTM 6/22 — Extreme vol/OI 193x, highly unusual OTM call activity; indicates strong directional speculation. 2.7 call 737 ITM 6/22 — Vol/OI 187x, second highest; consistent with bullish flow. 4.9 call 736 ITM 6/22 — 262k vs 2k OI (134x), large ATM/OTM call volume; likely part of same bullish wave.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above $745 could short squeeze.

!Sustained selling below $730 targets $718.

!Macro tech weakness reinforces bearish momentum.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $725.00/$724.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk bearish debit spread captures downside with limited cost; 18 DTE aligns with near-term bearish bias.	Break above $745 could invalidate bearish thesis; max loss is net debit paid.
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $719.00 put Why now: Direct bearish convexity for breakdown; limited downside risk (premium only).	Time decay and upward reversal if $745 breached; theta negative.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $765.00/$775.00 call spread Why now: Bearish-neutral defined-risk call sale with high probability of profit if QQQ stays below $745.	Short squeeze above $745 could cause max loss; theta works for seller.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $725.00/$724.00 put spread

Debit spread capturing downside with limited cost and max loss of 0.31.

Why this play: Best defined-risk bearish play targeting breakdown below $730.

Debit: $0.26-$0.31

Max loss: $0.31

BE: $724.69

Mgmt: Exit if QQQ rises above $738; take profit on breakdown below $724.

Traders seeking direct bearish exposure with capped risk.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-10 $719.00 put

Direct put purchase for maximum downside gain if QQQ breaks below $719.

Why this play: Highest convexity for aggressive bearish bet.

Debit: $8.19-$10.01

Max loss: $10.01

BE: $708.99

Mgmt: Set stop loss if QQQ rebounds above $738; consider scaling out below $719.

Aggressive traders expecting sharp decline.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $765.00/$775.00 call spread

Selling call spread profits from stagnation or decline below $745.

Why this play: Bearish-neutral high probability play with defined risk.

Credit: $2.04-$2.49

Max loss: $7.51

BE: $767.49

Mgmt: Close if QQQ approaches $765; watch for volatility expansion.

Traders preferring higher probability, limited reward.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF QQQ breaks below $730, THEN → Buy 2026-07-10 $725/$724 bear put spread at 0.26-0.31

IFIF QQQ breaks below $730, THEN → Buy 2026-07-10 $719 put at 8.19-10.01

Exit Triggers

EXITIF QQQ rises above $738, THEN → Exit bear put spread and long put; consider closing call credit spread if held

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias: breakdown below $730 targets $718. Key support 718, resistance 738 (Max Pain). Top plays: bear put spread, long put, call credit spread. Invalidation above $738.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.