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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $738.31EOD only

Max Pain

$726.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.63

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-12.31

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.70

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-range with upside magnet to the 618-620 pin cluster; Confidence: 9.0/10 (base). Primary supports: very large positive GEX (+$951.9M) concentrated at 618/620 and heavy net premium inflow (+$1.1B) into near-ATM calls; conflict: P/C OI 1.49 and P/C vol 1.35 show skewed put interest below, and IV term shows higher mid-dated IV (20–24%) that can widen moves.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 9.0 driven by +$951.9M GEX pinning at 618/620, +202.8M DEX shares, net premium +$1.1B; little to override because no imminent exogenous catalyst is visible.

Supports: GEX concentrations at 618/615/613 (pin magnets), max pain cluster ~$609–605 across expirations, EM near-term lower guardrail $613.49
Conflicts: Put OI stack centered at $570–600 and P/C OI 1.49 (structural downside interest), elevated mid-term IV vs front-week (Apr20 ATM 19.6% -> May15 21.7%)

📌GEX pin strong at $618 (+$186.3M) and $620 (+$45.6M) creating a near-term magnet

🧭Max pain anchored ~$605–609 across expiries — favors range / short-premium around spot

⚠️Large unusual put prints at $614/$615 expiries (heavy vol) signal aggressive hedging around current spot

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV environment: Avg IV 24.3% with ATM front-week IVs low (Apr14/15 ATM ~11–17% intraday front-day distortions) but mid‑dated IV elevated (~21–24%) — encourages selling premium in front and watching mid-term jumps.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$951.9M) concentrated at 618/620/615 which creates mean-reverting dealer hedging and a local magnet around 617.39; gamma flip sits down near ~$570 so dealers become short-gamma materially only much lower.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: strong call-heavy premium into 611–616 strikes (top premium flows at 612/613/614/615) while P/C OI and net premium show asymmetric institutional put demand below; net premium +$1.1B leans bullish into tails of the pin.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $617.39 is above max pain (~$609–605) by ~1.4% but immediate magnet is at 618–620 due to GEX concentration; expect small mean-reversion to the pin unless put demand below triggers acceleration.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX pinning concentrated across the next two expiries and MP is flat (~$609) across many expirations indicating the pin/mean-reversion regime will likely persist 2–4 weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$613.49$621.30

If spot holds >$618 for 30–60 min, buying pressure and dealer gamma buying will push toward $620; sustained trade < $613.49 breaks the short-term pin.

Next 1 week

$605.36$629.43

Break above $629.43 or below $605.36 requires a catalyst (vol spike or macro reprice) — watch IV mid-dated jumps.

Next 2 weeks

$595.57$639.22

Put OI clusters at $570–600 provide structural support; a VIX move >24 would widen range toward the 2‑week bounds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $609 (2026-04-13); $600 (2026-04-14); $605 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $613.49/$621.30; 1w $605.36/$629.43

Support: $613.00 · $605.00 · $600.00

Resistance: $620.00 · $625.00 · $629.43

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,641 (7.7% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor between $500–$580 (big OI at $570/$580/$600) — use as long-dated protection reference and for LEAPS positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+951.9M

DEX: +202.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$570 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,641 (7.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large NTM positive gamma concentrated at $618 (+$186.3M), $620 (+$45.6M), $615 (+$40.6M) → dealers will buy dips and sell rallies within the pin; if spot moves +2% (~$629) dealers will reduce call-delta buying and gamma support fades; if spot moves -2% (~$605) dealer hedges increase put-delta buying (pin holds until nearer gamma flip ~$570).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 24.3% vs VIX 19.12 — IV rich relative to VIX but front-week IV depressed; mid‑dated (Apr20–May15) ATM IV ~19.6–23.3% shows higher term premium.

Term structure: Term structure is modestly upward-sloping into May/June (Apr20 19.6% → May15 21.7% → Jun30 21.4%) with front-week dislocation (very low same-day IVs) — favors selling near-term skew if you can manage gamma.

Skew: Skew: cheap OTM calls beyond 625 (IV 15–16%) vs richer near-ATM; mispriced opportunity: sell front-week calls around 612–616 (lower IV) while buying 30–45d calls or using call spreads in higher-IV mid-dates for defined risk calendar/diagonals.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $1.1B, heavy call-side premium concentrated at 610–616 strikes (top premium at 612/613/614/615)

Directional prints: 6.3 put 614 OTM 2026-04-13 — QQQ260413P00614000 huge vol 246,317 vs OI 1,102 — can be sold-to-open hedges or aggressive protective buys; consistent with short-premium pin if these are dealer-lifted sells, but if buys they signal front-week tail hedging. 10.8 put 615 OTM 2026-04-14 — QQQ260414P00615000 vol 42,375 vs OI 335 — buyer-initiated flow into Apr14 puts; could be institutional day-hedges ahead of expiry or delta buys if downside risk priced in. 23.5 call 614 ITM 2026-04-13 — QQQ260413C00614000 OTM/ITM call volume large (201k) into same-day expiry — consistent with short-term call buying that reinforces the pin toward 618 if closed/expired ITM.

Unusual: 2.9 put 616 OTM 2026-04-13 — QQQ260413P00616000 vol 45,850 vs OI 147 (311x) — extremely high print at-the-market; likely short-dated hedging or screener noise but watch close: payout will compress IV front-week.

Risks & Catalysts

!Front‑week expiry and concentrated same-day flows can create intraday squeezes around 612–618

!Gamma flip near ~$570 — a tail move below that removes dealer cushioning and accelerates downside

!VIX pick-up >24 would blow through EM guardrails and invalidate short-premium bias

!Heavy institutional put OI at $570–600 can anchor downside and cause asymmetric risk if macro weakens

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy QQQ 100 shares @ spot $617.39	Disfavored by GEX pinning dealers will sell into rallies; large put stacks below create gap risk
Short stock	Weak	Avoid (shorting into positive GEX and heavy dealer buying)	Dealers long-gamma will buy dips, making squeezes costly
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares, sell 620 call 2026-05-15	Caps upside near 620 pin; gap-to-gamma flip downside exposure
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell 605/595 put spread 2026-05-15 (preferred 32 DTE)	Break below $600/$605 and increasing volatility widens losses
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy May15 630 call (long-dated breakout exposure)	High cost vs mean-reversion; low edge unless catalyst
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 605/595 bear put spread 2026-05-15 (if bearish)	Expensive mid-dated IV; better as protection than directional profit
Iron condor	Strong	Sell 605/600 put and sell 620/625 call 2026-04-20 (week) — defined risk range trade	VIX spike or break through EM guardrails invalidates wings
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar here)	Moderate-Strong	Sell May15 615 call, buy Apr20 615 call (sell higher-IV longer leg) — reverse calendar around ATM	Requires decay and pin stability; roll risk into higher IV mid-dates if market moves
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy long-dated LEAP call (2026-06/07) and sell near-term calls (e.g., sell May15 620) — collect premium while keeping upside optionality	Requires careful management of assignment and IV term changes

Top Plays

Multi-week put-spread (primary)

Sell 605/595 put spread 2026-05-15

Defined‑risk short premium that leverages positive GEX pin near 618 and flat max pain ~605–609; mid-dated IV (May15 ATM 21.7%) offers attractive credit while gamma flip remains far below (~$570).

Credit: $1.80-$2.40

Max loss: $8.20

BE: $603.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $600 or VIX > 24 or daily close < $605

Accounts wanting defined-risk premium with 30–45 DTE

Near-term iron condor (tactical overlay)

Sell 605/600 put spread and 620/625 call spread 2026-04-20

Short-week iron condor captures front-week decay into the 618–620 pin; high positive GEX makes short premium favorable and front-week IV is relatively low so defined risk wings are efficient.

Credit: $0.90-$1.30

Max loss: $3.70

BE: 600.0–620.0 range (wings)

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at 30–40% of max loss; unwind if spot prints >$629.43 or <$605.36 or VIX spikes >22

Traders seeking quick theta with strict risk controls

Reverse calendar ATM call (vol play)

Sell May15 615 call, buy Apr20 615 call (reverse calendar)

Sell the higher-IV mid-date (May15 ATM 21.7%) and buy the cheaper front-week (Apr20 19.6%) to arbitrage term skew while riding the pin; benefits if pin holds and mid-dated IV compresses.

Credit: $0.30-$1.10

Max loss: Varies (manage by rolling)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close or roll if spot moves >$6 from 615 or if May15 IV rises >2 vol-pts; take profits on >50% of realized credit

Traders comfortable managing roll risk and short forward IV exposure

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $618.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 605/595 put spread 2026-05-15

IFIf spot prints $615.00 and intraday VWAP remains >$615 → Sell May15 615 call and buy Apr20 615 call (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot trades into $620.00 with <5% IV move → Sell 620/625 call spread 2026-04-20 as part of an iron condor

Exit Triggers

EXITIf the 605/595 put spread reaches 60–70% of max profit → Buy to close the 605/595 put spread

EXITIf spot prints <$600.00 or <$570.00 (gamma flip region) → Exit all short premium and take protective longs (buy 600/590 put spread)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short‑premium/range trades around the 618–620 pin with multi-week horizon; invalidation below $605 (1‑week EM) and structurally below ~$570 gamma flip. Top plays: May15 605/595 put spread (defined-risk primary), Apr20 iron condor (tactical weekly), and reverse calendar 615 call (vol-term arb). Regime favors selling premium and defined-risk spreads while avoiding naked directional shorts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.