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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $746.16EOD only

Max Pain

$740.00

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.77

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-6.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.68

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bullish with a short-term pin magnet between $610-$615; confidence: 8.0/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX (+$277.2M) concentrated at $610/$612/$615, net premium inflow +$67.8M and P/C volume 1.76 showing overweight put demand that reinforces dealer pinning to the $610-$615 corridor. Conflict: max pain sits below spot ($595→$600 short-term) which creates tail risk to the downside after expiries resolve.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8.0 (pre-computed); drivers: +277.2M GEX concentrated at $610-$615; net premium +$67.8M; IV term shows extremely low near-week ATM IV (14.7% 3d) which the market has priced for low realized move → keeps short-premium edge near-term.

Supports: GEX concentration +$11.4M at $610, +$5.6M at $612, +$5.7M at $615; put OI wall and max pain below spot create structural buying into $580-$600 if breakdown.
Conflicts: Max pain trend rising but still below spot ($595→$605), near-term low IV (3d ATM 14.7%) makes strong move more likely to produce vol spike; large put OI at $582 (~229,132) is a distant weak floor but also a crash accelerant if broken.

📌GEX pinning concentrated at $610/$612/$615 (total +$22.7M across those strikes) — dealers will hedge into moves around these levels.

💰Net premium +$67.8M and P/C vol 1.76 — institutional flow is net bullish into calls near spot ($611/$615).

⚠️Large put OI cluster at $582 (OI 229,132) sets gamma flip near $582; breach would accelerate downside hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol regime; avg IV 23.7% vs notably low near-week ATM IVs (3d 14.7%) — structurally normal but near-term front-week is suppressed.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX +$277.2M with concentrated NTM gamma at $610/$612/$615 causing mean-reversion hedging and a magnet effect.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium +$67.8M and P/C vol 1.76 supportive of bullish call buying, but significant put OI and periodic large put prints create two-way pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $611.07 sits above current max pain ($595→$600), implying dealers would prefer pinning down toward MP after expiries; currently spot is inside EM guardrails $607.93-$614.21 that align with pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across multiple expirations (NTM GEX at $610/$612/$615 and MP trend rising over >2 weeks), so prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$607.93$614.21

Dealer hedging (GEX +$11.4M at $610, +$5.6M at $612, +$5.7M at $615) will damp moves; break below $607.93 or above $614.21 will lift gamma hedging directionality.

Next 1 week

$606.66$615.49

Net premium inflow and call-heavy flow at $611/$615 support upside bias inside EM $606.66-$615.49; failure below $606.66 increases downside acceleration toward max pain $600.

Next 2 weeks

$592.50$629.64

Max pain trend rising and structural put floor $500-$580 keep downside support near $580-$590; a breakout above $629.64 requires sustained call buying and will flip dealer hedges.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $595 (2026-04-10); $600 (2026-04-13); $585 (2026-04-14)

EM guardrails: 2d $607.93/$614.21; 1w $606.66/$615.49

Support: $600.00 · $595.00 · $582.00

Resistance: $615.00 · $620.00 · $629.64

Gamma flip: ~$582.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 229,132 (4.8% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor between $500-$580 (large OI clusters at $582, $570, $540) — long-term downside protection sits ~$500-$580 and makes aggressive long gamma expensive inside that band.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+277.2M

DEX: +189.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$582 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 229,132 (4.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $610 (+$11.4M GEX), $612 (+$5.6M), $615 (+$5.7M) → dealers will sell into upticks and buy into downticks inside the pin; if spot moves -2% (~$599) dealer hedging flips to net buying of stock (supports) while a +2% move (~$623) increases call delta hedges (selling pressure) but net GEX still pins to nearby strikes.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 23.7% vs market VIX context (not provided) — near-week IV is extremely suppressed (3d ATM 14.7%) creating a short-premium edge front-week; longer-dated IV sits ~21-25% making 30-45 DTE sales reasonable.

Term structure: Front-week inverted: 3d 14.7% < 7d 19.4% < 14d 21.0% — steep rise after front-week signals event/expiry compression followed by higher mid-term vol.

Skew: Skew: cheap ATM calls in 3d-7d (14-19%); mispriced opportunity: sell short-dated ATM vol (4/13-4/17) vs buy 30-45d (sell 14.7% vs buy ~21.8% yields ~7-8 vol-pt edge for calendars).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $67.8M (net premium into calls) with P/C vol 1.76 — institutional buying of calls at spot strikes ($611/$615) dominates.

Directional prints: 14.7 call 611 ITM 2026-04-13 — QQQ260413C00611000 heavy print Vol 38,682 vs OI 914 (42.3x) — could be bought calls or spreads; consistent with call-heavy net premium. 16.2 put 608 OTM 2026-04-13 — QQQ260413P00608000 large vol 35,525 vs OI 707 (50.2x) — short-week hedges or protective puts; two-sided but overall flow favors calls.

Unusual: 14.7 call 612 OTM 2026-04-13 — QQQ260413C00612000 vol 41,209 vs OI 1,531 (26.9x) — heavy short-week call activity at $612 supporting pin near $610-$615.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $582; breach would trigger accelerated downside hedging and remove pinning support.

!Front-week IV compression: extremely low 3d ATM IV (14.7%) risks rapid vol repricing on any unexpected macro or sector shock.

!Max pain below spot (~$595-$600) across multiple expiries: expiration flows could push spot down after front-week pins unwind.

!Concentration risk: large GEX at $610-$615 amplifies mean-reversion but creates crowded short-premium exposure if delta moves >2%.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy QQQ stock at $611.07	Gamma pin could leave you long into a post-expiry drift toward max pain $595.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short QQQ at market or on rally to $615	Large dealer GEX near $610-$615 will produce mean-reverting bounces; risk of sharp gap up.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + Sell 2026-05-15 615 call (sell higher-IV leg)	Capped upside; front-week pin might hold and limit call premium collected.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 $600 put	Close below $595/EM increases assignment risk; front-week IV low reduces premium.
Put spread (bear-protective short premium)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 $600 / Buy 2026-04-20 $590 put spread	Break below $590 accelerates losses toward $590; gamma flip at $582 is structural stop area.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 $625 call	Low theta; requires break above EM $615 and sustained flow; expensive versus front-week.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 $590 / Sell $580 put spread	Costs moderate IV; better if you expect multi-week slide toward $582 gamma flip.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 605/595 put fly? (prefer defined) — recommend structured IC: Sell 2026-04-20 $605/$595 put side × $625/$635 call side	Tail gap beyond wings (below $595 or above $635) will blow out P/L.
Calendar / diagonal (sell near vol)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-13 (higher IV?) 612 call, buy 2026-05-15 612 call — sell short-dated low-IV vs buy mid-term higher-IV	Front-week vega reversal if realized vol spikes; requires pin hold until near-term expiry.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 610 call, Sell 2026-04-20 615 call (collect front-week premium, longer-term directional exposure)	Assignment/early exercise and front-week pin dynamics; requires monitoring of IV term spread.

Top Plays

NTM Put Spread (defined short premium)

Sell 2026-04-20 $600 / Buy $590 put spread

Leverages positive GEX pin at $610-$615 and low front-week IV to collect premium with dealers hedging into small moves; structure sits above max pain but within EM guardrails.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: $10.00

BE: $599.40

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit at 30% of width filled; cut at spot <$595 or IV spike >+6 vol-pts.

Defined-risk premium sellers wanting a multi-week hold

30-45 DTE Calendar (vol arbitrage)

Sell 2026-04-13 612 call, Buy 2026-05-15 612 call (sell lower IV, buy higher IV)

Front-week IV 14.7% sold vs 35d IV ~21.4% bought — captures ~6.7-7 vol-pt edge and benefits if pin holds; less theta bleed than straight short premium.

Credit: $0.40-$1.10

Max loss: N/A

BE: Requires monitoring of calendar mid-price; manage if near-term IV > long-term IV

Mgmt: Take 50% profit if near-term leg decays 70%; roll long leg up if spot >$615.

Traders wanting VIX/term-structure edge with defined risk on calendar decay

Long-dated LEAPS diagonal (directional with decay)

Buy 2026-07-17 610 call, Sell 2026-04-20 615 call (collect front-week IV)

Gives directional long exposure while monetizing short-term elevated call demand; extra time >30d reduces gamma and cost vs buying short-dated calls.

Debit: $3.50-$8.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: $619.50

Mgmt: Take 40-60% profit on 2x move up; cut if spot < $595 or if front-week IV spikes >+8 vol-pts.

Traders wanting directional upside exposure with defined roll mechanics

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds $610 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-20 $600 / Buy $590 put spread

IFIf spot tags $612 and front-week ask IV ≤15% → Sell 2026-04-13 612 call and buy 2026-05-15 612 call (calendar)

IFIf spot dips to $599 and holds 15 minutes → Buy 2026-07-17 610 call, Sell 2026-04-20 615 call (LEAPS diagonal)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $615 with sellers filling at $620 → Roll sold short-week call up one strike (e.g., sell 615 → 620) or buy back and re-sell out to 625 for credit

ADJIf IV front-week rises +6 vol-pts from current (e.g., 3d ATM >20%) → Close all short front-week premium positions and convert to calendar or buy protection (buy 1-2x out-of-the-money puts)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot <$595 → Close short premium trades and trim long-dated calls; consider flipping to defined long protection

EXITIf calendar shows near-term leg <25% of original debit within 48 hours of expiry → Buy back the sold near-term leg to lock profit and avoid pin-release gamma

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer-driven pin around $610-$615 favors shorting near-week volatility and defined short-premium spread trades (e.g., 4/20 600/590 put spread) while using 30-45 DTE calendars/diagonals to harvest term-structure edge; invalidate bullish short-premium setups on sustained break below $595 or front-week IV jump >+6 vol-pts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.