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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $717.54EOD only

Max Pain

$712.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.45

1.0% from close

Price Gap

-5.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term magnet to the 605–615 range (current spot $610.19). Confidence: 7.5/10 (use pre-computed). Primary supports: large positive GEX +$448.8M pinning at 608/610/613 and concentrated net premium inflow +$211.2M; primary conflict: max pain cluster ~ $583–596 below spot (puts-heavy) and IV term showing front-week compression (1d ATM 18.8%).

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5/10 per input (base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX pinning; -0.5 spot 4.7% above MP); I accept this — no imminent macro or earnings data absent to override.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $608/$610/$613 (+$38.7M,+$32.8M,+$20.0M) plus net premium +$211.2M
Conflicts: Max pain trend lower ($583→$600 across expiries) and ATM IV depressed front-week (1d 18.8%)

📌Pinning: concentrated dealer gamma at $608/$610/$613 is the dominant short-term magnet

📈Net premium inflow +$211.2M and P/C OI 1.53 — institutional skew toward puts but active call buying at 605/606/607

⚖️Gamma flip near $582 is the structural invalidation point for the pin

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — Avg IV 24.0% with front-week ATM IV suppressed (1d 18.8%), favors premium selling on near-term expiries.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — large positive GEX +$448.8M with concentrated NTM gamma at 608/610/613 creates a volatility leash and mean-reversion forces near current spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — net premium +$211.2M and P/C vol 1.42 show active call buying at 605–620 but structural put OI concentrated at 582/570 supports downside protection flows.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP — spot 4.7% above nearest MPs (583–596) which creates asymmetric downside structural layers but currently dominated by dealer pinning above MP.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across multiple near expirations (608/610/613 across the next two expiries) and MP trend is rising over 2–4 weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$605.48$614.91

Break above $614.91 with sustained flow/IV lift would open 1–2% extension to $620; failure below $605.48 would accelerate move toward gamma flip $582.

Next 1 week

$605.43$614.95

Expiry pinning + positive GEX likely to keep price inside guardrails; breakout needs >1.8% expected move (>$621) or print <$599 to shift regime.

Next 2 weeks

$590.99$629.40

Sustained call buying at 605–620 and rising MP to $600 supports upside; a drop below $582 gamma flip removes pin and favors heavier downside to $565–575 structural floor.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $583 (2026-04-09); $595 (2026-04-10); $596 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $605.48/$614.91; 1w $605.43/$614.95

Support: $605.00 · $600.00 · $582.00

Resistance: $615.00 · $620.00 · $630.00

Gamma flip: ~$582.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 228,957 (4.6% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $500–$575; heavy long-term call OI >$650 caps upside beyond $650; $582 gamma flip is the main structural pivot for directional repositioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+448.8M

DEX: +201.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$582 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 228,957 (4.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $608 (+$38.7M), $610 (+$32.8M) and $613 (+$20.0M) — dealers will buy dips and sell into rallies inside 605–615; if spot moves down ~2% (~$598) and through 582 dealers' hedges flip, accelerating delta selling toward the put floor.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 24.0% with ATM front-week compressed (1d 18.8%), implying near-term options cheap relative to term and favoring selling premium into pin.

Term structure: Term structure: front-week IV suppressed 16–19% while 30–45 DTE sits ~20.5%–22.1%, creating a modest carry to sell longer-dated IV vs buy front-week (but per rule sell higher-IV leg).

Skew: Notable cheapness at 1–8d ATM vs 21–50d (18.8% vs ~20.5%); constructing a reverse calendar (sell 30–45D, buy front-week) captures ~+4.1 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $211.2M bullish net premium (call-heavy at 605/606/607/620)

Directional prints: 19.8 call 609 ITM 2026-04-10 — Large call flow at $609 (exp 4/10) — could be bought calls or call spreads; aligns with pin magnet at 610 and short-term dealer hedging (interpretation: buy calls is consistent with net premium). 20 put 610 OTM 2026-04-10 — Heavy put prints at $610 (exp 4/10) — could be protective puts or sell-to-open; given net premium positive and P/C >1, protective buying is plausible.

Unusual: 21 put 608 OTM 2026-04-10 — Very high relative volume at QQQ260410P00608000 (Vol 48,201 vs OI 885) — short-term put demand centered at dealer pin; likely protective or pin-exploit buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $582 — a move below accelerates dealer selling and removes pin support

!Max pain cluster $583–596 sits well below spot and could attract concentrated put pinning into expiries

!Front-week IV compression (1d ATM 18.8%) risks sharp vol spikes on surprise macro data causing rapid repricing

!Concentrated call buying around 605–620 could create crowded long-gamma exits if market gaps lower

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at spot $610.19	Gamma flip <$582; requires capital, adverse if vol spike.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares against pin — tactical only	Dealer pin and positive GEX create mean-reversion; high risk if pin holds.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 615 call	Capped upside at 615; loses if spot <582 or large gap down.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 605 put or sell 2026-05-15 600/590 put spread	Pin fail below 582 accelerates losses; assignment risk into MP.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 615 call (directional)	Front-week IV low; calls inexpensive but need breakout >615 quickly.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 582/572 put spread	Gamma pin likely prevents immediate downside; costly if no sustained move.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 600/590 put x 615/620 call condor	Vol spike or break outside 605–615 guardrails will blow wings; good theta inside pin range.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 610 call, buy 2026-04-13 610 call (reverse calendar) — sell 20.5% IV buy 16.4% IV = +4.1 vol-pt edge	Shorter calendar sold longer-dated leg is gamma-exposed if pin holds; needs careful management if spot diverges from 610.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 615 call; buy 2026-12-18 615 call for diagonal if raising covered upside	Term structure carry but exposed to large gap below 582; requires capital and roll plan.

Top Plays

Reverse calendar (sell longer-dated, buy front-week) — income with vol edge

Sell 2026-05-15 610 call, buy 2026-04-13 610 call (reverse calendar)

Sell higher-IV 36d 610 call (≈20.5%) and buy lower-IV 4d 610 call (≈16.4%) capturing ~+4.1 vol-pt edge while pinning keeps spot near 608–613; benefits from theta and falling front-week IV into expiry.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: Loss if spot moves strongly away from 610 while curve re-prices (theoretical loss limited by hedges)

BE: Dynamic (requires monitoring short leg mark vs front-week decay)

Mgmt: Close short 5/15 leg if spot moves outside 605–618 or IV differential compresses below +1.5 pts; take profits at 50–70% of target.

Traders who can manage short longer-dated exposure and monitor pin risk

Sell 600/590 put spread (defined-risk short premium)

Sell 2026-04-20 600/590 put spread

Collect premium inside EM guardrail lower bound $605 and dealer pin at 608/610; defined risk if pin holds and front-week IV low.

Credit: $0.40-$0.85

Max loss: $10.00

BE: $599.60

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit if spread trades at 30% of max loss; cut at spot <$595 or IV>+3 pts.

Small accounts wanting defined risk premium collection

Iron condor across 600–620 (short premium into pin)

Sell 2026-04-20 600/590 put x 615/620 call iron condor

Theta-rich trade that leverages positive GEX pinning between 605–615; both wings map to EM guardrails and call OI clusters.

Credit: $0.60-$1.50

Max loss: $9.40

BE: ~lower wing + credit / upper wing - credit (dynamic)

Mgmt: Close at 50–70% of max profit or if spot breaches $605 or $615 on volume; reduce size if net premium reverses.

Experienced traders wanting neutral income with defined risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $608 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-15 610 call and buy 2026-04-13 610 call (reverse calendar) as per Top Play 1.

IFIf spot drifts to $605 and VIX/IV remains <= current levels → Sell 2026-04-20 600/590 put spread (Top Play 2).

IFIf spot rallies >$618 on sustained volume and call OI buildup at 620 increases → Avoid short premium; buy 2026-04-20 620 call or buy 2026-05-15 620/630 call spread.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $605 with increasing put flow and IV +3 pts → Close/smallen short longer-dated legs (reverse calendars) and roll short to 600 or buy back and redeploy as put spreads.

ADJIf spot moves above $615 with call-heavy net premium at 620 → Widen/roll up iron condor call wing (move 615/620 to 620/625) or buy protective calls on short calls.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot drops below $582 (gamma flip) → Exit all short premium, buy protective long puts 582/572 or convert to long put spreads.

EXITIf any top play reaches 60–70% of targeted max profit → Take profits and scale out per management rules.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning at 608–613 favors selling longer-dated premium vs buying near-term (reverse calendar) and defined-risk put spreads; invalidation is a clean break below $582 (gamma flip) which flips dealers to sell-gamma and removes pin; top plays: reverse calendar (sell 5/15, buy 4/13) for income, sell 600/590 put spread for defined risk, and 600/590 x 615/620 iron condor for neutral income.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.