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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $717.54EOD only

Max Pain

$712.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.45

1.0% from close

Price Gap

-5.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish bias with downside pressure toward the $572–$580 area; Confidence: 4.5/10. Strongest signals: large negative GEX (-$277.7M) implying trending dealers who will accelerate moves, concentrated put OI at $570/$580 and a near-term EM that places risk inside $578.63–$598.56. Conflicts: net premium inflow $178.2M and call-heavy premium at $585/$590 which muddy direction.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 4.5: model lowered for GEX/flow mismatch; no imminent catalyst found to override; negative GEX and large put OI lower confidence in range pinning.

Supports: GEX -$277.7M (trending dealers); heavy put OI at $570/$580 (max pain $580–$587); EM 2d $578.63/$598.56 supports downside pressure.
Conflicts: Net premium +$178.2M and call premium concentrated at $585/$590 oppose one-sided selling; P/C OI 1.43 (put skew) suggests protective buying.

📉Negative GEX (-$277.7M) favors continuation and amplified moves around ±2%

📌Max pain cluster at $580–$587 with EM 2d lower bound $578.63 is near-term gravity for dealers

🧭Gamma flip ~ $570 is the structural invalidation for bullish views; dealers become long gamma below it

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol = Normal; ATM avg IV 28.3% but near-term 1–3d spikes (48.8% → 38.3%) show event front-loading — short-dated IV rich, multi-week IV moderate (~27–30%).

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma = Trending; large negative GEX (-$277.7M) concentrated above spot (positive call GEX pockets at 590–605) means dealers are short gamma and will hedge directionally, amplifying moves; gamma flip at ~$570 matters for dealer behavior.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow = Mixed; net premium +$178.2M (buying), P/C vol 1.29 and OI 1.43 show protective put interest while significant call premium at 585/590 indicates two-way positioning — flow doesn't fully align with GEX trend.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $588.59 is above near-term max pain sequence ($580→$587) which creates mild downside magnet; spot sits ~1.5% above MP supporting mean pull toward $587.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and MP trend (rising MP over expirations) persist across multiple expiries (several expiries show MP $580–$600) and gamma flip sits ~3.2% below spot, so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$578.63$598.56

Dealers short gamma will amplify moves; failure below $578.63 ($578.63 is 2d lower bound) exposes $572–$570.

Next 1 week

$572.28$604.91

Max pain sequence $580→$587 and put OI at $570/$580 bias toward the $572–$587 corridor; break below $570 triggers stronger dealer buying (gamma flip).

Next 2 weeks

$566.26$610.92

Persistent negative GEX and put concentration make lower tail possible; decisive close below $570 flips dealer behavior and expands range to lower EM $566.26.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $580 (2026-04-07); $587 (2026-04-08); $582 (2026-04-09)

EM guardrails: 2d $578.63/$598.56; 1w $572.28/$604.91

Support: $580.00 · $572.28 · $570.00

Resistance: $598.00 · $600.00 · $605.00

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 108,381 (3.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $500–$550; heavy long-dated call OI around $600–$610 caps upside beyond short-term pinning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-277.7M

DEX: +199.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$570 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 108,381 (3.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net near-term gamma strongly negative; concentrated positive GEX pockets at $590/$598/$600 are local pin magnets but overall GEX -$277.7M means dealers short gamma and will sell into weakness; if spot falls 2% (~$577) dealers hedge by buying puts/stock (short-gamma buys), which can short-cover rally or accelerate a drop depending on flow; if spot rises 2% (~$600) dealers sell stock into strength to hedge calls, capping upside near $598–$600.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 28.3% (multi-week) vs spiky near-dated IV: 1d ATM 48.8% and 2d 46.9% — short-dated IV richly priced vs term.

Term structure: Front-loaded (1–3d IV 48.8%→38.3%), mid-term ATM settles ~27–31% across 2–6 weeks — steep short-end premium suggests event/weeklies expensive, >30 DTE cheaper.

Skew: Notable rich IV at 1–3d expiries (48.8%/46.9%/38.3%); calendar/diagonal selling near-term IV and buying 30–45 DTE provides vol edge (example: sell 4/08 ATM IV ~48.8%, buy 5/22 IV ~27.8% — ~21 pt differential).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$178.2M (institutional net buyers), call-heavy net at $585/$590 and large put buys concentrated at $573/$570 (mixed directional intent).

Directional prints: 32.5 put 573 OTM 2026-04-13 — Vol 118,008 vs OI 370 (318.9x) — large opening activity in 4/13 $573 puts; could be protective buys or leveraged directional sells of stock; given net premium and P/C skew, interpretation = bought puts (protective) is more consistent. 43.7 call 594 OTM 2026-04-08 — Vol 29,721 vs OI 448 (66.3x) — heavy 4/08 $594 calls concentrate short-dated upside; likely directional call buys or spreads; with call premium at 585/590, could be speculative upside hedges.

Unusual: 53.4 call 585 ITM 2026-04-08 — Vol 44,156 vs OI 1,164 (37.9x) — very large ITM call flow into 4/08 $585 suggests aggressive short-dated upside exposure or buy-write rolling; interpretable both ways, but paired with strong put OI favors hedging demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$570 — decisive break below turns dealers long-gamma and can produce rapid snap-backs or sustained selling depending on flow.

!Near-dated IV spike (1–3d ATM 48.8% → 38.3%) risks sharp vol crush if events fade, harming buyers of short-dated exposure.

!Concentrated put OI at $570/$580 and MP near $580–$587 could create pinch points; a violent move past $598/$605 (EM upper) will trigger call-hedging supply.

!Macro shock or market-wide dealer de-risking would amplify negative GEX impact and widen spreads rapidly.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy QQQ stock $588.59	Negative GEX and concentrated puts create substantial headwind; use only if directional longer-term bullish.
Short stock	Moderate	Short QQQ stock near $598–$600 (resistance pocket)	Dealer call-hedging could cap upside; macro squeezes risk sharp rebounds.
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock + sell 2026-04-30 600 call (sell higher-term call)	Short vol and negative GEX; limited upside with risk below $570.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-30 570/560 put spread	Gamma flip ~$570; if below, hedging cost increases sharply.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-08 594 call (short-dated) or 2026-04-13 590 call for tactical upside	Near-dated IV rich (48.8%); high cost and vol crush risk.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-13 573 put or sell 4/13 573/563 bear put spread	Event IV elevated; buying short-dated puts expensive — prefer defined-risk spreads.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-30 560/550 put x 600/610 call condor	Negative GEX could break wings quickly; keep width conservative and manage early.
Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV near, buy 30–45 DTE)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-08 ATM (588) high-IV, buy 2026-05-22 ATM (588) lower-IV — sell IV ~46–48%, buy IV ~27.8% (~18–21 vol-pt edge)	Front-loaded IV decay favors seller; gamma exposure on short leg if spot whipsaws.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-22 570 call, sell 2026-04-30 595 call (diagonal)	Time premium and vol term-structure favor selling short-dated calls; requires stock purchase or synthetic leg.
Protective collar	Moderate	Own stock + buy 2026-05-22 560 put + sell 2026-05-22 620 call	Cost of protection vs capped upside; suitable for long holders worried about gamma flip.

Top Plays

Sell 30–45 DTE Put Spread (Defined-risk)

Sell 2026-05-22 570/560 put spread

Negative GEX and concentrated put OI make short put spread attractive with premium and distance from gamma flip (~$570 is flip — keep size small).

Credit: $0.70-$1.20

Max loss: $9.30

BE: $569.30

Mgmt: Take 60% profit; cut if close below $570 on daily close or VIX spike >+6 pts.

Defined-risk premium collectors

Sell Calendar/Diagonal (Vol arbitrage)

Sell 2026-04-08 588 ATM call (high IV) and buy 2026-05-22 588 call

Front-loaded IV (1d ATM 48.8% vs 45d 27.8%) gives ~21 vol-pt edge; collects decay while maintaining longer exposure.

Credit: $0.90-$1.50

Max loss: Variable (defined by adjustment)

BE: Dependent on rollover; monitor short-leg early assignment risk

Mgmt: Close short leg at 50% profit or if spot moves ±2% from entry; roll short to next week or flip to a diagonal.

Traders who can manage short leg gamma; tactical volatility arbitrageurs

Iron Condor (30 DTE conservative)

Sell 2026-04-30 560/550 put x 600/610 call condor

Uses multi-week ATM term structure where IV is moderate and EM bounds give natural wings (EM 23d shows ±5.3% → ~557–619).

Credit: $0.85-$1.40

Max loss: $9.15

BE: Lower wing 560 - credit / Upper wing 610 + credit

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; narrow wings or buy back if spot breaches a wing and VIX rises >+5 pts.

Defined-risk traders seeking neutral-income

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $580 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-22 570/560 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $598–$600 and short-dated IV compressed <40% → Sell 2026-04-08 588 call (short leg of calendar) and buy 2026-05-22 588 call

IFIf spot remains between $572.28 and $598.56 into end-of-day → Initiate 2026-04-30 560/550 put x 600/610 iron condor

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade reaches 60% of max profit before expiry → Take profit and reduce size; for calendars, close short leg only

EXITIf spot breaches $598.56 (2d upper EM) with rising volume → Exit short-call exposures and hedge with 2026-05-22 600 calls

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: negative GEX + concentrated puts biases toward downside/pinned action near $580–$587; invalidation: sustained close above $598.56 (2d EM upper) or persistent net call buying. Regime favors defined short premium against rich near-term IV (use 30–45 DTE put spreads and calendars); Top plays are the 30–45 DTE 570/560 put spread (best defined-risk), a short-dated sell/buy calendar at 588 (vol arb), and a conservative 30d iron condor (560/550 x 600/610) for neutral income.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.