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QCOM

QUALCOMM IncorporatedClose $195.61EOD only

Max Pain

$195.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$12.40

6.3% from close

Price Gap

-0.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QCOM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

QCOM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a strong pinning magnet to $130 (max pain) but underlying bearish flow. Confidence: 6/10. Spot is pinned near max pain with positive GEX, but heavy put premium flow and a high P/C ratio signal institutional hedging or bearish bets.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.9% from MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict (bearish flow vs. pinning GEX).

Supports: GEX +$2.2M (pinning), spot at $128.78 (0.9% below $130 MP), DEX +12.8M shares (dealer long).
Conflicts: Net premium -$85.1M (bearish), P/C Volume Ratio 1.95 (heavy put volume), IV 44.7% (elevated).

📌Strong multi-expiry pin at $130.

⚠️Massive bearish premium flow at deep OTM puts ($150-$200).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 44.7% — elevated, favoring premium sellers if pin holds.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.2M — pinning regime, strongest near $130, with a critical gamma flip at ~$125.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net prem -$85.1M with P/C vol 1.95 — clear institutional put buying/hedging dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $128.78, 0.9% below MP $130 — pinning gravity is active.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pin at $130 persists across April expiries; GEX sign remains positive; bearish flow is structural (deep OTM puts). This suggests a range-bound, pin-dominated regime for the next 2-4 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$126.28$131.27

Pinning dominates; break below $126.28 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$122.91$134.65

Pin likely holds through 4/10 expiry; downside limited by $125 put OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$120.81$136.75

Max pain rises to $140 by 4/17; flow conflict caps aggressive upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $130 (2026-03-27); $130 (2026-04-02); $130 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $126.28/$131.27; 1w $122.91/$134.65

Support: $125.00

Resistance: $260.00 · $140.00 · $300.00

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,269

Structural: Call OI walls at $140 and $260-$300 are distant caps. The $125 put OI (5,269 contracts) is the near-term floor and gamma flip level.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.2M

DEX: +12.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,269)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated near $130. A move below $125 flips gamma negative, accelerating selling. A move above $132.5 reduces pinning pressure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 44.7% — elevated, offering attractive premium for sellers.

Term structure: Humped with kinks: 5/08 expiry IV 47.4% (peak), then 5/01 at 41.9%. Steep drop from 5/08 to 5/15 (47.4% -> 40.4%) presents calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: Extreme put skew in April expiries (e.g., 4/17 $150P IV 60.2%). Selling OTM puts is rich, but deep OTM ($150+) flow suggests tail hedging.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$85.1M bearish; P/C vol 1.95, P/C OI 0.86.

Directional prints: $150P 4/17 vol 2,810 vs OI 280 (10x) at IV 60.2% — likely bought as tail hedge or bearish bet. $122P 4/10 vol 910 vs OI 181 (5x) — nearer-term protective put.

Unusual: Massive premium flow at deep OTM puts ($150-$200), netting tens of millions negative. This is either extreme hedging or speculative downside bets.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $125 gamma flip triggers dealer selling acceleration.

!Elevated IV (44.7%) can expand further on spot movement, hurting short premium.

!Structural bearish flow (deep OTM puts) indicates underlying negative sentiment that could manifest.

!Earnings expected ~4/29, with IV already elevated for May expiries.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Trapped in $125-$140 range; bearish flow overhead.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Strong pinning GEX and positive DEX oppose downside.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $135C or $140C 4/17 or 4/24.	Capped upside if pin breaks higher.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $125/$120 put spread 4/17 (below pin, above gamma flip).	Break below $125.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $130C or $135C 4/17 if pin holds.	IV high (39.2%), pin crushes theta.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $125/$120 put spread 4/10 as pin break hedge.	Pinning GEX resists downside.
Iron condor	Moderate	$125/$122P x $135/$138C 4/17 (within 1w EM bounds).	GEX positive but VIX contextually high; pin break either way.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/08 $130P (IV 47.4%), buy 5/15 $130P (IV 40.4%) — reverse put calendar.	Requires pin stability; earnings date proximity.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/27 $110 LEAPS, sell 4/17 $135C.	Capital intensive; range-bound pin crushes short call.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $125/$120 put spread, exp 4/17.

Collects premium below the pin but above the critical gamma flip. Benefits from pinning GEX and elevated IV, with defined risk.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $123.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $125.

Traders seeking defined-risk income, bullish on pin holding.

Reverse Put Calendar

Sell 5/08 $130P, Buy 5/15 $130P.

Capitalizes on the steep 7 vol-point drop in IV between 5/08 (47.4%) and 5/15 (40.4%). Profits from IV crush and pin stability at $130 over a multi-week horizon.

Credit: $0.60-$0.80

Max loss: $4.40

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit or 1 week to May expiry. Exit if spot moves >$5 from $130.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin thesis; better theta decay than a weekly.

Covered Call Overlay

Own stock, sell $135C exp 4/24.

Generates income from elevated IV and the pin-bound range. The $135 strike is above the near-term EM high and below the $140 call OI wall.

Credit: $2.50-$3.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $135. Close if pin breaks below $125.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield in a range.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot bounces from $126.28 (2d EM low) and holds above $127.50 → Enter $125/$120 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot tags $130 (max pain) with IV >45% on 5/08 expiry → Enter reverse put calendar: sell 5/08 $130P, buy 5/15 $130P.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $125 (gamma flip) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITVIX drops below 20 and IV term structure flattens → Take profits on all volatility-selling trades.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: QCOM is pinned at $130 with positive GEX, but bearish flow creates a conflicted, range-bound environment. Favor selling premium around the pin with defined risk. Invalidation is a close below $125. Top plays: 1) $125/$120 put spread for defined-risk income; 2) Reverse put calendar for vol differential play; 3) Covered call for shareholders. The 30+ DTE calendar improves risk/reward by capturing the steep IV drop while giving the pin time to play out.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.