Term structure: Humped at 5/08 (47.4%), elevated in May expirations
Spot vs MP: At $130 max pain (spot $128.78, 0.9% below)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$2.2M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Below $125, negative gamma could accelerate selling
OI concentrations: Put wall $125 (5,269 OI), Call wall $140 (5,128 OI), $130 is key level
#1put spread
Sell $125/$120 put spread 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Sells into the largest put OI wall ($125) for support. 31 DTE captures elevated IV (41.9%) while staying outside earnings. Credit of ~$1.00 on $5.00 width is a 20% ROI.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit (~$0.65 credit remaining). Exit if QCOM closes below $125 (short strike). Roll only if credit >$1.50 for same width. Assume 10-15% slippage on multi-leg fill.
#2iron condor
Sell $125/$120P x $140/$145C iron condor 2026-05-08 (38 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between major OI strikes ($125P, $140C). Sells peak IV (47.4% at 38 DTE) for maximum theta decay. Wide $5 wings provide buffer. Expected move is ±$5.97, short strikes are outside.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side for credit if possible. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike. High bid-ask spreads expected; use limit orders.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $120 put 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
For those willing to own stock. Strike is below the gamma flip ($125) and key OI support, providing a 6.8% buffer from spot. Collects decent premium in normal IV with defined risk.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested (price <$122). Close at 80% profit. Be prepared for assignment below $120.
#4call spread
Sell $140/$145 call spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish hedge against the dominant put flow. Targets the major call OI wall at $140. Spot needs to rally 8.7% to hit short strike, above the expected move.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if QCOM closes above $138. Do not hold through earnings (4/29).
!Earnings on 4/29 — CLOSE ALL APRIL & MAY POSITIONS BEFORE THIS DATE. Never sell naked through earnings.
!Bearish Flow Alert: Net premium -$85.1M with P/C 1.95 indicates strong institutional put buying. This is a headwind.
!Gamma Flip at ~$125 — A break below could lead to accelerated selling. Exit all put credit spreads below this level.
!Moderate Liquidity: Total OI 445k is moderate. Expect wider bid-ask spreads, especially on iron condors. Use limit orders.
!Unusual Put Activity: Large blocks in $150 & $155 puts for April (IV 60-70%) suggest some are buying far OTM protection.
!Max Pain Rising: MP trends from $130 to $140+ in later expirations, indicating higher expected price range over time.