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QCOM

QUALCOMM IncorporatedClose $195.61EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.40
6.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
55
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QCOM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
QCOM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in ~29 days (Apr 29). IV for the May 1 expiration is elevated at 41.9% vs. surrounding tenors, indicating a crush play is viable. Historical data shows a consistent pattern of beating EPS estimates and positive post-earnings moves, supporting a directional long bias. However, bearish options flow and pinning near max pain add complexity.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat bias; +0.5 elevated IV for earnings expiration; -0.5 bearish flow regime
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at the May 1 (31 DTE) expiration, confirming the earnings date and elevated premium to sell.
📅Earnings estimated for Apr 29 (AMC likely). Key expiration is 5/01 (31 DTE).
⚠️Severe bearish premium flow conflict with historical beat bias. This divergence is the core trade tension.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 45%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$2.2M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem $-85.1M, P/C 1.95)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain $130 (spot $128.78)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Gamma flip estimated at $125 based on put OI concentration. Below this, dealers may amplify downward moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$12.43 (9.7%) [$116.35 - $141.20]

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 5/01 (31d) expiration at 41.9% IV, elevated vs. 35.5% (4/24) and 40.4% (5/15).

Crush estimate: ~6-8 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~35% range.

Skew: Flow is heavily bearish (P/C 1.95, net prem -$85M), but OI ratio is call-leaning (0.86). Unusual put buying in April expirations ($150, $155) suggests hedging or bearish bets.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price move data provided, but 100% EPS beat rate suggests positive directional bias.

Directional bias: Positive (based on consistent EPS beats)

Key Levels

1$125 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$130 max pain
3$140 call OI wall
4EM: $116 - $141

Flow Highlights

Massive bearish premium flow in OTM puts ($150-$200 strikes), netting -$44M at $195 put alone.

Institutional hedging or strong directional bearish bets far OTM, creating a long volatility tail risk.

Unusual volume in 4/17 $150 & $155 Puts (10x and 5.8x OI, IV 60-70%).

Traders buying expensive downside protection ahead of earnings, possibly hedging long stock or betting on a sharp drop.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $116/$110P x $141/$147C 5/01
Credit: $2.50-$3.00
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: $2.75
BE: 113.50 / 143.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (Apr 22-24)
Capitalizes on elevated IV at the May 1 expiration. Strikes calibrated to the expected move boundaries with a buffer. Historical beat bias suggests a contained, positive move is more likely than a collapse.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 9.7% expected move and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the short strikes ($110 or $147).
Bull Put Spread (Directional Bias)
Sell $120P / Buy $115P 5/01
Credit: $1.40-$1.70
Max loss: $3.60
Max gain: $1.55
BE: $118.60
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $125-$127 support before earnings.
Leverages the historical EPS beat bias and positive flow. Defines risk below the $125 gamma flip level. Collects premium from bearish put flow.
Outperforms: Stock is flat or rises post-earnings, in line with historical beat tendency.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $118.60, breaking below the gamma flip and key put OI level.
Long Straddle (Volatility Expansion)
Buy $130 straddle 5/01
Max loss: Debit paid (~$12.43 estimated)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 117.57 / 142.43
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips below 40% before earnings, or if unusual OTM put activity intensifies.
A contrarian play against the crush setup. Justified by the extreme bearish OTM put flow, which could signal a volatile move. High breakeven requires a larger-than-expected move.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 9.7% expected move significantly (>30%).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $130 and IV crushes post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 9.7% expected move is significant. A break below $125 (gamma flip) or above $140 (call OI wall) could trigger accelerated moves.
!IV Crush: The primary risk for long premium strategies. Estimated crush of 6-8 vol points will rapidly decay long straddle value.
!Liquidity: Excellent, with high total OI and many active strikes. Top OI strikes provide natural liquidity points.
!Sizing: Size condors and spreads conservatively (1-2% risk). The bearish flow indicates latent downside pressure that could overwhelm the historical beat bias.

What to Watch

?Spot price action relative to $125 gamma flip and $130 max pain.
?Whether the unusual OTM put buying spreads to nearer-dated or ATM options.
?IV trajectory for the May 1 expiration as earnings approach.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.