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PANW

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Close $240.13EOD only

Max Pain

$217.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.00

4.2% from close

Price Gap

-22.63

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.10

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PANW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

PANW Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong pinning force at $160, but underlying flow and a falling max pain trend suggest a multi-week drift lower. Confidence: 6/10. The regime is conflicted: positive GEX and spot at max pain argue for stability, but heavy put premium flow and a high P/C ratio signal institutional bearishness.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict (bearish flow vs. pinning GEX).

Supports: GEX +$3.4M (pinning), spot at $160 max pain, deep put OI floors at $150/$140.
Conflicts: Net premium -$25.7M bearish, P/C vol 2.26 (extreme put skew), falling MP trend to $140.

⚖️GEX pinning vs. Bearish flow creates a standoff.

📉Max pain ladder trends down to $140 by 2027-03 — a structural bearish signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 49.3% is elevated, offering edge to premium sellers, but term structure is flat near-term.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.4M indicates pinning near $160; dealer hedging will resist moves away from spot.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow is Bearish: net premium -$25.7M and P/C vol 2.26 show overwhelming put buying dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot is At max pain ($160), reinforcing the pinning regime for the near term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — The falling max pain trend across expirations ($160 → $140) and consistent bearish flow signal a persistent, slow-drift bearish bias beyond the immediate pin. GEX pinning is event-specific to the 3/27 expiry, but the flow regime supports a longer-term view.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$156.94$163.71

GEX pinning dominates; break below $156.94 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$152.32$168.32

Pin releases post-3/27; flow and next MP ($157.5) pull lower.

Next 2 weeks

$149.65$171.00

Driven by falling MP trend and put OI gravity; $149.65 (2w EM low) is key.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $160 (2026-03-27); $158 (2026-04-02); $158 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $156.94/$163.71; 1w $152.32/$168.32

Support: $150.00 · $140.00 · $150.00

Resistance: $180.00 · $200.00 · $180.00

Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,261

Structural: Call OI walls at $180/$200 cap rallies; put floors at $150/$140/$130 provide major support. The $150 level is critical as both a gamma flip and major OI strike.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.4M

DEX: +13.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$150 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,261)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX near spot creates a magnet. A move below the ~$150 gamma flip would accelerate dealer selling, while a move above $165 would see dealer buying slow the ascent.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 49.3% is very high (no VIX provided for direct comp). Implies expensive options — selling premium has edge.

Term structure: Mostly flat near-term (39-41%), with a significant kink to 47.6% for the 5/01 expiry (earnings anticipation).

Skew: Extreme put skew (P/C vol 2.26) makes OTM puts expensive. Selling far OTM puts (e.g., $130) against longer-dated longs could capture skew decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$25.7M bearish; P/C vol 2.26, P/C OI 1.05.

Directional prints: $160P 6/18 vol 13,849 vs OI 3,098 — large block likely bought for protection or directional bearish bet. $170P 3/27 vol 3,615 vs OI 4,198 — could be closing or rolling, but high volume near spot is notable.

Unusual: $5C saw $2.2M in premium — a clear financing/fee trade, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$150: break below accelerates selling via dealer hedging.

!High IV (49.3%): long premium strategies face significant theta/vega decay.

!Earnings kink in 5/01 expiry: vol crush post-earnings (5/20) is a risk for long vol positions.

!Contradictory regime (Pinning GEX vs. Bearish Flow): unclear which force wins near-term.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Bearish flow and falling MP trend oppose entry.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning provides near-term headwind; better expressed via options.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $165C 4/17 (~$0.30 est.)	Stock drifts lower; call premium is low due to high IV skew favoring puts.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $150/$145 put spread 4/17 (targeting put floor & below MP).	Break below $150 gamma flip.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV, bearish flow, and pinning make long calls low-probability.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $155/$150 bear put spread 4/17 (betting on drift to next MP).	Pinning holds spot; time decay in high IV.
Iron condor	Moderate	$150/$145P x $170/$175C 4/17 (within 1w EM bounds).	GEX positive but IV >28, and flow is directional, not range-bound.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Reverse Calendar: Sell $150P 5/01 (IV 47.6%), Buy $150P 4/17 (IV 40.7%).	Earnings date mismatch; pin may hold.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Buy $140C 1/27, sell $165C 4/17 against it.	Structural bearish trend pressures long LEAPS.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Multi-Week Drift)

Buy $155 Put / Sell $150 Put, exp 4/17

Expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis toward $150 (next key support & gamma flip), aligning with bearish flow and falling MP. Defined risk is crucial in high IV.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $153.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($0.90-$1.26 debit). Exit if spot closes above $160 (pin holds). Roll down if $150 is breached early.

Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk, avoiding the theta decay of long puts alone.

Short Put Spread (Premium Sell into Support)

Sell $150 Put / Buy $145 Put, exp 4/17

Capitalizes on high IV by selling premium at the major $150 put OI floor, with a bullish-to-neutral assumption that this support holds. Benefits from pinning GEX and time decay.

Credit: $0.90-$1.20

Max loss: $4.10

BE: $149.10

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Exit on a close below $149 (breach of put floor).

Premium sellers comfortable owning stock at $150, or those betting the bearish flow is overdone near-term.

Long-Dated Put Diagonal (Structural Hedge)

Buy $140 Put 1/27 / Sell $150 Put 4/17

A longer-dated expression of the bearish structural trend (MP to $140). The long $140P provides cheap, long-term downside exposure, financed by selling nearer-term premium at the $150 support. The extra time improves R:R by reducing the cost basis of the long hedge versus a near-term vertical spread.

Debit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $136.50

Mgmt: Manage short leg at expiry; roll down/out for credit if $150 is threatened. Long leg is the structural hedge.

Portfolio managers or longer-term bears seeking a cost-effective hedge against a gradual decline, willing to manage short leg rolls.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot breaks and closes below $156.94 (2d EM low) → Enter $155/$150 bear put spread 4/17.

IFIf spot rallies to $163.71 (2d EM high) and shows rejection → Sell $165/$170 call credit spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $162.50 → Exit all bearish positions (put spreads, short calls).

EXITIf P/C volume ratio drops below 1.0 for two consecutive days → Re-evaluate bearish thesis; consider taking profits on put spreads.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A multi-week bearish drift toward $150, conflicted by near-term pinning at $160. Invalidation: a sustained move above $162.50. The regime favors defined-risk bearish spreads (put spreads) and selling premium at key support levels. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for tactical downside; 2) Short put spread for premium sell into support; 3) Long-dated put diagonal for a structural hedge.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.