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PANW

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Close $240.13EOD only
Max Pain
$217.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.00
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-22.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.10
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PANW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
PANW Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around May 20 (implied by term structure). IV is elevated (49% vs typical ~35%), making IV crush plays attractive. However, bearish flow and a falling max pain trend suggest underlying weakness. Best strategy is a short straddle/strangle to capitalize on historical under-moves and IV crush, with defined-risk hedges.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated IV vs typical; -0.5 bearish flow regime
Most important: Historical pattern shows consistent EPS beats but stock tends to under-move vs. expected move. Current elevated IV and bearish flow create a high-premium, mean-reverting setup.
⚠️Earnings date is implied (May ~20). Confirm via company IR.
📉Heavy bearish premium flow (-$25.7M net) contradicts 100% EPS beat history. Watch guidance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 49%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$3.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem $-25.7M, P/C 2.26)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $160
Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Below $150, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (50 days)implied (term structure kink at 5/01, earnings estimate provided)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$14.40 (9.0%) [$145.92 - $174.72]
  • 5/08 (38d): ±$14.62 (9.1%) [$145.70 - $174.95]

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated and flat near-term, with a kink at 5/01 (47.6% vs ~40% in Apr). Confirms earnings priced for ~May 20.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~30-35% range

Skew: Strong put skew evidenced by P/C volume 2.26 and heavy put premium flow at $160.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price move data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive bias.

Directional bias: N/A - price history not provided, but 100% EPS beat rate is bullish.

Key Levels

1$150 gamma flip / major put OI
2$160 max pain / spot
3$170 call OI wall
4EM bounds: ~$146 - $175

Flow Highlights

Massive net put premium at $160 strike: $-16.1M (Call $795K / Put $16.9M)

Institutional hedging or bearish positioning for earnings/guidance.

Unusual $160 Put 6/18: Vol 13,849 vs OI 3,098 (4.5x)

Opening of longer-dated protective puts, possibly a hedge against an earnings drop.

Strategies

Short Straddle (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $160 straddle exp 5/01 (or first weekly post-earnings)
Credit: $14.00-$16.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $14.00
BE: 146.0 / 174.0 (approx, based on ~$14 credit)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV > 45%
Elevated IV (47.6% for 5/01) and historical EPS beat consistency support selling premium. Max pain at $160 and pinning gamma provide a magnet.
Outperforms: Stock stays within ~±9%, IV crushes >15 points
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >50% ($138 or $182+)
Iron Condor (Defined Risk)
Sell $150/$145 Put spread & Sell $170/$175 Call spread exp 5/01
Credit: $1.50-$2.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: 148.5 / 171.5 (approx, based on $2.50 credit)
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings
Defined risk alternative. Wings align with key OI levels ($150 PUT, $170 CALL) and are outside the 5.0% expected move for 4/10, providing a buffer for the 9% 31-day EM.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $150 and $170
Underperforms: Stock closes <$148.5 or >$171.5 at expiration
Put Calendar Spread (Bearish/Breakdown Hedge)
Buy $150 Put exp 5/01, Sell $150 Put exp 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Debit paid + (short put decay - long put depreciation)
BE: Complex - best on a drop to $150 with IV spike
Trigger: Enter if stock shows weakness into earnings
Hedges against bearish flow and the $150 gamma flip level. Profits from IV expansion on the long-dated put and decay of the short-dated put if stock drops to the strike.
Outperforms: Stock drops toward $150 post-earnings, IV spikes then crushes
Underperforms: Stock rallies or stays flat, suffering double time decay

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 9% expected move is significant. Bearish flow (P/C 2.26) increases downside tail risk.
!IV crush magnitude is key; if VIX is elevated broadly, crush may be less severe.
!Liquidity is adequate but not exceptional (441k OI). Sizing should be moderate.
!Max pain trend is falling ($160 → $140), indicating put accumulation and a bearish drift in dealer positioning.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May — will it spike further or start to deflate?
?Spot price vs. $160 max pain and $150 gamma flip.
?Any unusual call buying to counter the dominant bearish put flow.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.