thetaOwl

PANW

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.Close $240.13EOD only
Max Pain
$217.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.00
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-22.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.10
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PANW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
PANW Flow Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Spot breaks below $157.50 (next max pain) on elevated put volume
Invalidation: Spot reclaims $165 with net premium flipping positive
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 strong net premium bearish; +1 P/C volume extreme; +1 GEX pinning at spot; -1 low absolute volume

Watch next session: $160 PUT OI reaction to spot move; Any call buying to defend $157.50 max pain

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$25.7M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 2.26 — extreme put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.05 — balanced with slight put lean

Aggressive put buying dominates flow, with net premium heavily negative. The extreme P/C volume ratio signals strong bearish conviction, while OI positioning suggests a magnet at $160 with a potential break lower toward $150.

Notable Prints

#1
PANW 6/18/26 $160 Put
Vol: 13,849
OI: 3,098
Vol/OI: 4.5x
IV: 42.2%
Notional: ~$22.2M
Intent: Fresh directional put buying or protective hedge
Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: Massive bearish bet for mid-June, targeting a break below $160. The 4.5x OI turnover suggests new positioning, not rolling.

#2
PANW 7/17/26 $125 Put
Vol: 1,213
OI: 540
Vol/OI: 2.2x
IV: 49.0%
Notional: ~$1.5M
Intent: Long-dated downside protection or speculative put
Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: Targets a ~22% decline from spot by mid-July. The elevated IV (49%) suggests this is likely a purchase for protection or a bearish bet, not a sale.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Top call OI at $180/$200, but no significant recent call flow.

Put additions: $160P (June), $170P, and far OTM puts ($230, $240, $280) showing heavy premium outflow.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$3.4M) indicates pinning pressure at current spot, aligning with max pain at $160. Flow is bearish, suggesting institutions are hedging or betting against the pin.

OI clusters: Major PUT walls at $150 (6,261 OI) and $140 (4,910 OI). Major CALL wall at $180 (5,436 OI). Creates a likely range of $140-$180 with a bearish skew.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence via large, long-dated put purchases ($160P June, $125P July) and premium outflow in far OTM puts.

Max pain context: Spot ($160.32) is pinned exactly at today's max pain ($160). Forward max pain trends lower ($157.5 next week, down to $140 by March 2027), suggesting structural bearish positioning.

Signal vs Noise

~$5.00 Call premium inflow ($2.2M net) is a synthetic long or financing leg, not a directional bullish bet.
~Low-volume OI changes at deep OTM strikes are likely noise, not meaningful flow.
~The $175 Call net premium (+$703K) is isolated and may be part of a spread or collar against put positions.

Key Conclusions

🐻Extreme put-dominant flow (-$25.7M net premium) signals strong bearish conviction.
📌Spot pinned at max pain ($160) with positive GEX, but flow bets on a breakdown.
🎯Key OI walls create a $140-$180 range, with $150 put cluster as next major target.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.