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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $152.46EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.90
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+17.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
0.97
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ORCL 75d from earnings, 80% beat rate, elevated IV. Flow shows bullish call buying but negative net premium. Confidence 6.5.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Aggressive call buying in 07/02 $160 calls despite negative net premium suggests positioning for upside.
📊80% beat rate; historical move smaller than implied.
⚠️Unusual 07/02 $160 call volume; may indicate bullish bet.
🛡️Heavy put OI $130-$150 acts as downside hedge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$130.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,858 (12.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-09-09 (75 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$7.97 (5.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$12.22 (8.2%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$14.97 (10.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (6d ±5.4%); backwardation implied by higher front-end vol.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings front-week IV likely drops from ~50% to ~20-25%.

Skew: Put skew elevated at lower strikes; $148 put unusual volume suggests hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate but average move slightly below implied.

Directional bias: Bullish bias from high beat rate.

Key Levels

1$130.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $140.55/$156.50
3Max pain pins: $160 (2026-06-26); $168 (2026-07-02); $180 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

High vol/oi ratio on 07/02 $160 calls (10.9) and 6/26 $152.5 calls (16.9).

Aggressive call buying for near-term upside; possibly anticipating positive catalyst.

Strategies

Call Calendar at $170
Sell 2026-07-10 $170.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $170.00 call
Debit: $4.25-$5.19
Max loss: $5.19
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close before front-month expiry to avoid gamma risk; roll if stock approaches $170.
Backwardation & elevated near-term IV make selling front-month and buying back-month profitable; bullish bias from high beat rate but capped by resistance.
Outperforms: Sells high IV front-month, buys lower IV back-month at same strike; benefits from IV crush and time decay while maintaining upside exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle $140/$170
Sell 2026-07-10 $140.00 put + sell $170.00 call
Credit: $3.17-$3.88
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.88
BE: 136.12 / 173.88
Trigger: Close before earnings to avoid gap risk; adjust strikes if support/resistance shifts.
Elevated near-term IV (~50-55%) offers premium; 80% beat rate supports range-bound move; heavy put OI at $130 provides floor.
Outperforms: Collects premium from high IV; profits if stock stays between $140 and $170 near earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long call
Buy 2026-09-18 $185.00 call
Debit: $5.96-$7.29
Max loss: $7.29
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $192.29
80% beat rate, aggressive call buying flow, bullish bias.
Outperforms: Buy OTM call to profit from earnings beat.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Elevated IV and short-dated premium; gamma risk near expiration.
!Heavy put OI at $130-$150 provides floor but also resistance.
!Negative net premium ($-113M) indicates institutional selling.

What to Watch

?Gamma flip near $130; call wall at $200-$220.
?Spot proximity to max pain $160 for 07/02.
?Volume in $160 calls for directional bias.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.