Earnings Verdict
ORCL 84 days out; high near-term put skew suggests hedging; volatility elevated.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Watch for volume in deep OTM puts; any unwinding signals sentiment shift.
🔴Put-heavy flow suggests bearish bias despite high confidence.
🚨Historic 80% beat rate provides comfort, but current positioning defensive.
Regime Classification
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-09-09 (84 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$4.91 (2.7%)
- 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$11.97 (6.5%)
- 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$15.60 (8.5%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Near-term inverted; deep OTM puts >150% IV, front-month skew elevated.
Crush estimate: N/A (event distant)
Skew: Extreme put skew; massive prints in 6/18 $240 and $220 puts.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Last 5 moves: +3.9%, -4.1%, +3.2%, -2.8%, +4.5% vs ~±4.5% expected.
Directional bias: Mixed, no persistent direction post-earnings.
Key Levels
1EM guardrails: 2d $178.61/$188.44; 1w $171.55/$195.50
2Max pain pins: $185 (2026-06-18); $192 (2026-06-26); $190 (2026-07-02)
Flow Highlights
Aggressive put buying in 6/18 $240 and $220 strikes, vol/OI >8.
Large protective or speculative bearish bets; downside hedging.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Bearish put skew could intensify if broader market drops.
!Long duration to earnings leaves event risk open; negative news could trigger large move.
What to Watch
?Unusual put volume; unwinding indicates sentiment shift.
?Spot at $185 resistance and $178 support; breakouts confirm bias.