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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $205.81EOD only
Max Pain
$207.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$25.80
12.5% from close
Price Gap
+1.69
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ORCL options show elevated IV with heavy put activity on low strikes, suggesting downside hedging. Net premium positive, put/call OI ratio 0.89, and strong call open interest at $230-$300 indicate bullish bias. Max pain pin at $208 for June 12 expiry.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP
Most important: Unusual put buying at $125-$165 strikes signals defensive positioning despite bullish flow. Spot at ~$201 is below max pain $208, implying potential pinning upward.
🛡️Heavy put buying at deep OTM strikes ($125, $165) suggests tail hedging for a >15% drop.
📈Call OI wall at $230-$300 indicates strong bullish conviction for a rally post-event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,098 (5.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (2d): ±$26.55 (13.2%)
  • 2026-06-18 (8d): ±$28.88 (14.3%)
  • 2026-06-26 (16d): ±$31.58 (15.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep; front-month June 12 IV at ~200%, back-month June 26 at ~76%.

Crush estimate: Moderate to high crush of 30-50% post-event given elevated front-month IV.

Skew: Put skew elevated on low strikes due to tail hedging; call skew moderate.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beat rate 80% (4/5 quarters), typical earnings moves near expected.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias based on flow and structural call walls.

Key Levels

1$190.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $174.71/$227.81; 1w $172.38/$230.13
3Max pain pins: $208 (2026-06-12); $190 (2026-06-18); $200 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Heavy put buying on low strikes (125, 165, 149, 148) with vol/OI ratios 5-15x, indicating defensive positioning.

Traders hedging against downside risk, possibly anticipating earnings miss or broader market weakness.

Unusual call activity at 202.5, 212.5, and 255 strikes with moderate volume.

Bullish bets at resistance levels, suggesting expectation of upside breakout.

Strategies

Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $207.50 call / buy 2026-07-10 $205.00 call
Debit: $3.62-$4.43
Max loss: $4.43
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor IV crush; roll if spot approaches short strike.
Steep term structure and expected IV crush favor diagonal.
Outperforms: Captures premium decay from front-month IV while maintaining upside exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Put calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $200.00 put / buy 2026-07-10 $200.00 put
Debit: $3.31-$4.04
Max loss: $4.04
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Watch $200 support; adjust if spot drops below.
Heavy put hedging suggests floor near $200; calendar benefits from time decay.
Outperforms: Profits from elevated front-month put premium decay if spot stays above $200.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV (VIX 22) amplifies premium cost; IV crush post-event can lead to losses for buyers.
!Gamma pinning near $190-$200 may limit moves; spot below max pain $208 could push upward.
!Heavy put OI at $190 creates strong floor; breakout above $207.5 resistance necessary for bullish continuation.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction to $200 support and $207.5 resistance.
?IV and gamma dynamics around max pain $208 for June 12 expiry.
?Unusual put activity unwinding or adding to positions.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.