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NBIS

Nebius Group N.V.Close $197.73EOD only

Max Pain

$210.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$19.95

10.1% from close

Price Gap

+12.27

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.07

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NBIS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

NBIS Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 strongly bullish net premium & flow; +1 GEX/flow alignment; -0 VIX high but priced in

Watch next session: $110C 5/1 unusual print for follow-through; Spot reaction to $105-$108 call OI cluster; Any defensive put flow near $85

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$1.0M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.72 — call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.89 — moderate put lean in positioning

Flow is decisively bullish with call-buying driving positive net premium, despite a high-volatility environment. The market is betting on a recovery from current levels toward the $110-$120 zone, though significant long-term put OI creates a structural headwind.

Notable Prints

NBIS 5/1/26 $110 Call

Vol: 1,180

OI: 118

Vol/OI: 10.0x

IV: 84.5%

Notional: ~$122k (est. mid ~$1.04)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying

Dual read: Bought to open (bullish) or sold/written (bearish/neutral)

Read-through: This is the most unusual print (10x OI). Given the bullish net premium flow and call dominance, this is a high-conviction bet for a move to $110+ by early May. The high IV suggests a volatility play as well.

NBIS 4/2/26 $108 Call

Vol: 1,484

OI: 791

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 72.7%

Notional: ~$89k (est. mid ~$0.06)

Intent: Short-dated directional bet or gamma scalp

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (bearish/neutral)

Read-through: High volume in a near-expiration, OTM call. Given the bullish flow context and spot below strike, this is likely a low-cost, high-leverage bet on an immediate pop above $108 before Friday. The high volume vs. OI suggests new positioning.

NBIS 4/2/26 $105 Call

Vol: 3,447

OI: 2,196

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 74.9%

Notional: ~$345k (est. mid ~$0.10)

Intent: Directional call buying near a key level

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance belief)

Read-through: This is the highest absolute volume print. $105 is a critical near-term level (max pain for 4/10 & 4/17, top premium flow strike). This volume, combined with the $857k net premium bullish flow at this strike, strongly indicates buyers targeting a move through this level.

NBIS 4/10/26 $88 Put

Vol: 451

OI: 136

Vol/OI: 3.3x

IV: 87.1%

Notional: ~$180k (est. mid ~$4.00)

Intent: Protective put or bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish/hedge) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: A meaningful, OTM put purchase. This could be a hedge for long stock or calls given the bullish flow elsewhere, defining a risk level ~15% below spot. The high notional suggests it's not noise.

NBIS 7/17/26 $120 Call

Vol: 577

OI: 320

Vol/OI: 1.8x

IV: 84.4%

Notional: ~$98k (est. mid ~$1.70)

Intent: Long-dated upside call buying

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: Adds to the longer-dated bullish positioning, targeting a ~16% move over ~3.5 months. Consistent with the $110-$120 call premium flow dominance.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $105-$120 calls across Apr-Jun expiries, with concentrated buying at $110 (5/1) and $105 (4/2).

Put additions: Defensive/hedging activity seen at $88 (4/10) and $101-$103 (4/2). Large legacy OI in deep OTM puts ($10, $50, $85).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$6.6M) aligns with bullish call flow, supporting a pinning/mean-reverting regime near current spot.

OI clusters: Major Call OI: $100 (6.6K), $80 (6.3K), $150 (6.6K), $200 (10.8K). Major Put OI: $10 (23.8K), $85 (8.4K), $5 (7.4K), $50 (7.1K). Creates a massive put skew with a long tail of OTM protection.

Hedging evidence: Yes, significant. The enormous OI in $10, $50, and $85 puts suggests large-scale, long-dated portfolio hedging or tail-risk protection, likely held by institutions or large shareholders.

Max pain context: Spot ($103.76) is significantly below near-term max pain ($112 for 3/27, $102-$108 for Apr). This creates a mild gravitational pull upward toward the $105-$108 cluster, but is overwhelmed by the longer-dated put OI skew.

Signal vs Noise

~High volume in 4/2 $101, $103 Puts and $109 Calls: Likely short-dated gamma trading, hedging, or closing of positions ahead of Friday's expiration. Not a primary directional signal.

~The $10 Put with 23,763 OI and minimal volume: This is legacy, deep OTM hedging (likely from a capital raise or structured product). Its volume is noise; its OI is a structural feature.

~The $200 Call OI (10.8K): Given the spot, this is likely from old, expired warrants or convertible hedges. High OI but low recent volume makes it a positioning artifact, not active flow.

Key Conclusions

🐂Flow is aggressively bullish: Net premium positive $1.0M, P/C ratio 0.72, and key unusual prints are calls targeting $105-$120.

⚖️Positioning is a tale of two markets: Active flow is buying calls, but legacy OI is massively skewed to OTM puts, indicating underlying hedging/concern.

🎯Key near-term battle at $105: High call volume & premium flow here makes it a breakout magnet. Hold above is needed to confirm the bullish flow thesis.

⚠️High volatility (IV ~89%) is priced in, making options expensive. This supports the flow as directional conviction, not just volatility selling.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.