base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 bullish flow; -2 low liquidity/wide spreads
Term structure: Steeply upward sloping from 65% (2 DTE) to ~85% (30+ DTE). Peak IV around 31-45 DTE (May 1 & May 15).
Spot vs MP: Spot $103.76 is 7.4% below near-term max pain of $112 (3/27). Aligns with bullish flow.
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$6.6M). Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and promoting mean reversion.
Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Estimated very low at ~$10 due to massive $10 Put OI. Current price is well above, solidly in the pinning regime.
OI concentrations: Major Put Walls: $10 (23.8K OI), $85 (8.4K OI). Major Call Walls: $200 (10.8K OI), $100 (6.6K OI). Spot is between the $85 put and $100/$110 call clusters.
#1put credit spread
Sell $95 / Buy $90 Put Spread, Exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Sells into peak IV (~86%). Strike is $8.76 below spot, outside the 10-day expected move low ($93.09). Defended by the massive $85 put wall (8.4K OI). High credit ($1.60 est.) provides a 33% return on risk with a wide 5-point spread to mitigate pin risk.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit (~$1.04 credit retained). Roll up/out if $95 put tested. Exit entire position if stock closes below $88 (below the 4/10 expected move low).
#2iron condor
Sell $95/$90 Put Spread & Sell $115/$120 Call Spread, Exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on the pinning regime between major OI levels ($85P / $100-110C). The short call strike ($115) is above the 31-day expected move high ($124.09) and the max pain for that expiry ($109). Collects high premium from both sides with defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out in time. Exit if spot breaches either short strike by more than $0.50.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $85 Put, Exp 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)
For accounts willing to take assignment. Targets the largest near-term OI support wall (8.4K OI at $85). Collects enormous premium (~$10.50 est.) for 11% downside protection and a 12.4% yield on capital secured. 79 DTE allows time for management.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if ITM to avoid assignment, targeting a credit. Be prepared to accept assignment at $85 if rolled to no longer be profitable.
#4call credit spread
Sell $110 / Buy $115 Call Spread, Exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Targets the $110 call wall (notable bullish flow: +$3.1M net premium). Strike is above max pain for 4/17 ($105) and just above the 17-day expected move high ($118.36). Quicker theta decay in the 17 DTE window with high IV (~81%).
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit due to shorter DTE. Exit if stock closes above $108 (testing the 4/10 expected move high).
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-29 (~4 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions well before this date to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Extremely low estimated Gamma Flip (~$10). A catastrophic drop below this level could trigger unchecked selling pressure from dealers. Use the $85 OI wall as a practical risk level.
!Low liquidity relative to mega-caps (78K volume). Expect wide bid/ask spreads. Use limit orders and defined-risk spreads exclusively.
!Falling max pain trend ($112 → $50 long-term) suggests structural bearish pressure over long horizons. Favor shorter-term (30-45 DTE) trades.
!Unusual activity in weekly $101-$103 puts (4/02 expiry). Monitor for any pinning or increased volatility around these strikes this week.