NBIS Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 strongly bullish net premium & flow; +1 GEX/flow alignment; -0 VIX high but priced in

Watch next session: $110C 5/1 unusual print for follow-through; Spot reaction to $105-$108 call OI cluster; Any defensive put flow near $85

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$1.0M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.72 — call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.89 — moderate put lean in positioning

Flow is decisively bullish with call-buying driving positive net premium, despite a high-volatility environment. The market is betting on a recovery from current levels toward the $110-$120 zone, though significant long-term put OI creates a structural headwind.

Notable Prints

NBIS 5/1/26 $110 Call

Vol: 1,180

OI: 118

Vol/OI: 10.0x

IV: 84.5%

Notional: ~$122k (est. mid ~$1.04)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying

Dual read: Bought to open (bullish) or sold/written (bearish/neutral)

Read-through: This is the most unusual print (10x OI). Given the bullish net premium flow and call dominance, this is a high-conviction bet for a move to $110+ by early May. The high IV suggests a volatility play as well.

NBIS 4/2/26 $108 Call

Vol: 1,484

OI: 791

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 72.7%

Notional: ~$89k (est. mid ~$0.06)

Intent: Short-dated directional bet or gamma scalp

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (bearish/neutral)

Read-through: High volume in a near-expiration, OTM call. Given the bullish flow context and spot below strike, this is likely a low-cost, high-leverage bet on an immediate pop above $108 before Friday. The high volume vs. OI suggests new positioning.

NBIS 4/2/26 $105 Call

Vol: 3,447

OI: 2,196

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 74.9%

Notional: ~$345k (est. mid ~$0.10)

Intent: Directional call buying near a key level

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance belief)

Read-through: This is the highest absolute volume print. $105 is a critical near-term level (max pain for 4/10 & 4/17, top premium flow strike). This volume, combined with the $857k net premium bullish flow at this strike, strongly indicates buyers targeting a move through this level.

NBIS 4/10/26 $88 Put

Vol: 451

OI: 136

Vol/OI: 3.3x

IV: 87.1%

Notional: ~$180k (est. mid ~$4.00)

Intent: Protective put or bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish/hedge) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: A meaningful, OTM put purchase. This could be a hedge for long stock or calls given the bullish flow elsewhere, defining a risk level ~15% below spot. The high notional suggests it's not noise.

NBIS 7/17/26 $120 Call

Vol: 577

OI: 320

Vol/OI: 1.8x

IV: 84.4%

Notional: ~$98k (est. mid ~$1.70)

Intent: Long-dated upside call buying

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: Adds to the longer-dated bullish positioning, targeting a ~16% move over ~3.5 months. Consistent with the $110-$120 call premium flow dominance.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $105-$120 calls across Apr-Jun expiries, with concentrated buying at $110 (5/1) and $105 (4/2).

Put additions: Defensive/hedging activity seen at $88 (4/10) and $101-$103 (4/2). Large legacy OI in deep OTM puts ($10, $50, $85).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$6.6M) aligns with bullish call flow, supporting a pinning/mean-reverting regime near current spot.

OI clusters: Major Call OI: $100 (6.6K), $80 (6.3K), $150 (6.6K), $200 (10.8K). Major Put OI: $10 (23.8K), $85 (8.4K), $5 (7.4K), $50 (7.1K). Creates a massive put skew with a long tail of OTM protection.

Hedging evidence: Yes, significant. The enormous OI in $10, $50, and $85 puts suggests large-scale, long-dated portfolio hedging or tail-risk protection, likely held by institutions or large shareholders.

Max pain context: Spot ($103.76) is significantly below near-term max pain ($112 for 3/27, $102-$108 for Apr). This creates a mild gravitational pull upward toward the $105-$108 cluster, but is overwhelmed by the longer-dated put OI skew.

Signal vs Noise

~High volume in 4/2 $101, $103 Puts and $109 Calls: Likely short-dated gamma trading, hedging, or closing of positions ahead of Friday's expiration. Not a primary directional signal.

~The $10 Put with 23,763 OI and minimal volume: This is legacy, deep OTM hedging (likely from a capital raise or structured product). Its volume is noise; its OI is a structural feature.

~The $200 Call OI (10.8K): Given the spot, this is likely from old, expired warrants or convertible hedges. High OI but low recent volume makes it a positioning artifact, not active flow.

Key Conclusions

🐂Flow is aggressively bullish: Net premium positive $1.0M, P/C ratio 0.72, and key unusual prints are calls targeting $105-$120.

⚖️Positioning is a tale of two markets: Active flow is buying calls, but legacy OI is massively skewed to OTM puts, indicating underlying hedging/concern.

🎯Key near-term battle at $105: High call volume & premium flow here makes it a breakout magnet. Hold above is needed to confirm the bullish flow thesis.

⚠️High volatility (IV ~89%) is priced in, making options expensive. This supports the flow as directional conviction, not just volatility selling.

Read the Flow analysis for NBIS. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.