NBIS Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pinning force toward $105-$108, but a strong structural bearish drift indicated by the falling max pain ladder. Confidence: 7/10. The regime is dominated by a powerful gamma pin (GEX +$6.6M) and bullish flow, but the spot is far from the nearest max pain and the long-term OI structure reveals massive, distant put positions.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.4% from MP. No override: mechanical score correctly captures the high-volatility, pinning vs. structural conflict.

Supports: GEX +$6.6M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$1.0M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.72 (call dominance).
Conflicts: Spot ($103.76) is 7.4% below nearest max pain ($112), and the MP ladder trends down to $50 by 2027. Massive OI in $10 and $85 puts suggests long-term hedging/positioning.

📌Strong gamma pin near spot, but watch $10 gamma flip

⚠️Structural put OI at $10/$85 creates a massive, distant anchor

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 88.9% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers but demanding defined risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$6.6M concentrated near spot creates a strong pinning force, but the gamma flip at ~$10 is a distant tail risk.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$1.0M with P/C vol 0.72 shows institutional call buying, supporting the bullish short-term flow regime.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is below all near-term max pain levels, creating a gravitational pull upward toward $105-$112 over the next week.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a consistent downward trend across 15 expirations ($112 → $50), and the structural put OI at $10/$85 is a persistent feature. The near-term pin is a tactical overlay on this structural drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$99.44$108.08

Gamma pin and bullish flow dominate; break below $99.44 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$93.09$114.44

Max pain gravity and 1w EM upper bound; failure below $93.09 signals structural bearishness taking over.

Next 2 weeks

$89.16$118.36

Range widens to $89-$118; the falling MP trend and distant put OI may cap sustained rallies.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $112 (2026-03-27); $102 (2026-04-02); $105 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $99.44/$108.08; 1w $93.09/$114.44

Support: $10.00 · $85.00 · $5.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $200.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,763

Structural: **Call OI walls** at $150 and $200 cap major upside. **Put floors** at $85 and, overwhelmingly, $10 represent massive structural hedging or legacy positions that anchor long-term sentiment.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+6.6M

DEX: +20.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$10 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,763)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$6.6M near spot means dealers are short gamma and will hedge by buying on dips and selling on rallies, reinforcing the pin. A move below the ~$10 gamma flip would trigger massive, destabilizing dealer buying to cover short puts.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 88.9% is extreme, indicating high single-stock risk. Premium selling is attractive but requires careful strike selection.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping near-term (65.4% 2d → 84.8% 31d), then flat. Kink at 5/08 expiry (82.6%) after 5/01 earnings (84.8%).

Skew: Near-term (2-10d) IV is 10-20 vol points lower than 30-45d IV. Supports selling near-term premium against longer-dated longs (reverse calendars).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$1.0M bullish; P/C vol 0.72, P/C OI 0.89.

Directional prints: $110C 5/01 vol 1,180 vs OI 118 (10x) at 84.5% IV — likely bullish opening. $88P 4/10 vol 451 vs OI 136 (3.3x) at 87.1% IV — could be protective put buying or speculative short put sales.

Unusual: Massive premium flow at $85: net -$4.3M (put-heavy) and $75: net -$3.7M, indicating significant put writing or buying at those levels, aligning with the structural OI.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin break**: A sustained move outside the 2-day EM ($99.44-$108.08) could accelerate as dealer hedging flips.

!**Earnings volatility (4/29)**: High implied vol (84.8% for 5/01) will crush post-event; long vol positions must be managed.

!**Structural put anchor**: The $10/$85 put OI, while distant, represents a massive, persistent bearish sentiment that could limit long-term upside.

!**IV crush on any resolution**: Extreme IV offers high premium but is vulnerable to any decrease in perceived risk.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Not recommended as primary. Use as hedge for short puts.	Structural bearish drift and high volatility.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid. Contradicts bullish flow and pinning regime.	Gamma pin forces rally; high borrow cost likely.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell 4/17 $115 Call (~$5.00 est premium).	Capped upside if pin breaks higher; stock decline risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 $95 Put (~$7.50 est) or $95/$90 put spread.	Break below 1w EM lower bound ($93.09).
Long calls	Moderate	Buy 4/17 $110 Call, sell 4/10 $108 Call to finance (diagonal).	IV crush and pinning eroding time value.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Only as hedge. Consider 5/15 $95/$90 put spread.	Contrarian to near-term bullish forces; expensive IV.
Iron condor	Moderate	4/17 $98/$93P x $113/$118C. GEX positive but VIX context N/A; IV extreme supports defined-risk short premium.	Move outside 1w EM bounds.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell 5/01 $110 Call (IV 84.8%), Buy 4/17 $110 Call (IV 80.9%).	Spot rallies past short strike quickly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/27 $60 Call, sell 4/17 $115 Call against it.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still high at 85.7%.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell 4/17 $95/$90 Bull Put Spread

Capitalizes on the bullish pinning regime and high IV to collect premium. The $95 short strike sits just above the 1w EM support ($93.09) and the major $85 OI floor, providing a buffer. Defined risk aligns with extreme volatility.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $93.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $95. Roll down/out if challenged.

Traders seeking high-probability, defined-risk income in a pinning market.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell 5/01 $110 Call, Buy 4/17 $110 Call

Exploits the ~4 vol-point differential in the term structure (84.8% vs 80.9%) while expressing a neutral-to-bullish view. Benefits from IV crush after 4/29 earnings on the short leg and from the pinning effect keeping spot below $110 through April expiry.

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

BE: Complex; ideal scenario: spot near $110 at 4/17 expiry with high IV on short leg.

Mgmt: Close for a profit if the IV spread widens post-4/17 expiry. Manage short leg risk if spot rallies sharply above $112.

Volatility traders looking to capitalize on term structure and an upcoming earnings catalyst.

Long-Dated Put Spread Hedge

Buy 6/18 $95/$90 Bear Put Spread

A 79 DTE hedge against the structural bearish drift indicated by the falling max pain ladder and massive $10/$85 put OI. The extra time allows the thesis to play out without the noise of the near-term pin. It's cheap relative to near-term vols and provides defined-risk downside exposure.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $3.00

BE: $93.00

Mgmt: Hold as a multi-week hedge. Consider taking profits if spot breaks below $90 or if the max pain ladder inflects upward.

Portfolio managers or directional traders with a bullish near-term view but concerns about the multi-month outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to test $108 (2d EM high) → Sell 4/10 $108/$113 call credit spread.

IFSpot dips to $100 and holds → Sell 4/17 $100/$95 put credit spread.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $93.09 (1w EM low) → Exit all short put positions and reassess.

EXITSpot closes above $114.44 (1w EM high) → Exit all short call positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A bullish gamma pin dominates the next week, pushing spot toward $105-$112, but this occurs within a longer-term, structurally bearish framework. The regime favors selling high IV premium with defined risk. Top Plays: 1) $95/$90 put spread (near-term income), 2) $110 reverse call calendar (volatility play), 3) $95/$90 long-dated put spread (structural hedge). Choose based on whether you're trading the pin, the vol, or the structure.

Read the Directional analysis for NBIS for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.