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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $751.00EOD only

Max Pain

$690.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$65.55

8.7% from close

Price Gap

-61.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.31

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

MU Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to the $400 area; Confidence: 8.0/10. Strong supporting signals: large positive GEX +$30.3M concentrated at $400/$415 and heavy net premium flow into calls (e.g. $400 net $41.54M). Conflict: very high ATM IV (84.6% 3d) which raises cost of directional long vol but favors premium sellers collecting rich front IV.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8.0 from pre-computed: +30.3M GEX pinning, +$210.5M net premium into calls, MP trend rising; no imminent catalyst missing from base.

Supports: GEX concentration +$6.8M at $400 and +$2.7M at $380; max pain near-term $370 (4/10) and $360 (4/17) underneath spot supports mean reversion.
Conflicts: Avg IV 77.8% and ATM 84.6% (3d) makes buying vol expensive; EM guardrail downside to $354/$340 is wide which allows corrective drops.

📌Pinning to $400 area driven by concentrated call OI and GEX (+$6.8M at $400)

💸Heavy institutional call flow: $400 strike net premium +$41.54M YTD concentrated buying

⚠️ATM IV 84.6% (3d) — front-week vol rich, favorable to short premium if comfortable with gamma

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High — ATM IV 84.6% (3d) and Avg IV 77.8%; front-week IV elevated vs later-dated ~70% indicating rich short-term vol.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — Total GEX +$30.3M with strong concentrations at $400 (+$6.8M), $415 (+$3.8M), $380 (+$2.7M) creating an upside magnet and dealer selling into rallies.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish — Net premium +$210.5M with major call-centric flow at $400/$350/$370 consistent with directional buy-side positioning (P/C vol 0.57).

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $377.58 is above nearest MP $370 (4/10) and above multi-expiry trend which is rising toward $390 over time — implies mild upside gravity while short-term MP tension could pull toward $370-$400 band.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next few expirations (4/10, 4/17, 4/24) and MP trend is rising across 16 expirations, favoring 30–45 DTE setups with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$354.48$400.68

GEX pin at $400 and 2d EM bound $354.48/$400.68; hold above $370 keeps upside magnet active; break <$354 accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$340.53$414.63

1w EM $340.53/$414.63; sustained buying at $400/$415 is most likely breakout path; failure back under $370 shifts MP to $360.

Next 2 weeks

$331.05$424.10

2w EM $331.05/$424.10; structural call OI wall $400–$415 is the primary breakout cap — a clean push through $415 opens larger moves.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $370 (2026-04-10); $360 (2026-04-17); $400 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $354.48/$400.68; 1w $340.53/$414.63

Support: $370.00 · $360.00 · $354.48

Resistance: $400.00 · $415.00 · $424.10

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,545 (20.5% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $400–$415 caps upside into multi-week rallies; put floor $200–$350 provides long-tail protection and stops concentrated selling below $300 (gamma flip).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+30.3M

DEX: +65.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,545 (20.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net positive NTM gamma: large dealer short-call/long-hedge profile around $400; if spot +2% (~$384.13) dealers will sell stock to hedge calls (pressure vs. selling), if spot -2% (~$369.07) dealers will buy stock to hedge puts — net effect is mean-reversion into pinned levels while GEX positive reduces realized volatility.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 77.8% vs broad VIX (not provided) — front-week ATM 84.6% is rich relative to 30–90d ATM ~70–72%; favors selling front-dated vol.

Term structure: Steep front-end term premium: 3d ATM 84.6% > 10d 74.3% > 45d 70.5%; front-week IV priced for heavy event/capital flows.

Skew: Skew shows call-side concentration at $400/$415 with rich implieds; mispriced opportunity: sell front-week 4/10 ATM/near-ATM premium (e.g., 372.5–380 calls/puts) versus buy 30–45d (e.g., 5/22) to collect term premium — typical calendar edge of ~12–15 vol-pt between 3d and 45d.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strong bullish net premium into calls: $210.5M net premium; top strike $400 call net $41.54M, heavy flow at $350/$370/$380.

Directional prints: 84.9 put 372.5 OTM 4/10 — High print MU260410P00372500 vol 7,972 vs OI 833 (9.6x) — could be buyer of protection or sweep-lifted puts; given massive call flow overall this likely hedging vs large call buys (puts as protection). 86.5 call 375 ITM 4/10 — MU260410C00375000 vol 15,382 OI 2,179 (7.1x) — directional call accumulation supporting upside; likely buy-to-open aggressive flow.

Unusual: 87.1 call 372.5 ITM 4/10 — MU260410C00372500 ITM call vol 6,252 OI 737 (8.5x) — paired with large put prints at same strike indicating two-sided hedging around pin.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$300 would remove dealer pinning and steepen downside if breached.

!Front-week vol crush risk if call demand stops — IV could collapse quickly, hurting long vol buyers.

!Expiry pin risk 4/10 — large position flows at 372.5/375/400 create choppy intraday action; short-premium faces gamma pain intraday.

!Macro shock (broad tech sell-off) could overwhelm pin and push through $354 2d guardrail.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy MU stock at market	Expensive capital, carries gap-down risk below $360.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid aggressive short given positive GEX and call flow	GEX pin likely to induce mean reversion and short-squeeze risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + sell 5/22 415 call (sell higher IV leg)	Capped upside at $415; assignment into strong rally; front IV rich reduces call sale premium realization.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/22 360/350 put spread	Break below $354/$360 guardrails increases probability of larger loss into $340 region.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/24 400 call debit for directional upside	High front IV means expensive, needs decisive break >$400 to justify cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/10 372.5/365 put spread	IV may compress post-expiry; limited edge vs. selling premium due to rich front IV.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 355/350 put x 400/405 call iron condor	Gamma into expiry; large IV makes credit attractive but requires active management if spot approaches wings.
Calendar / diagonal (front sell)	Strong	Sell 4/10 ATM (372.5–380) / buy 5/22 same-strike calendar (sell higher-IV leg) — sell 4/10 375 call, buy 5/22 375 call	Front-week IV expensive and will tend to mean-revert; needs range-bound spot to collect theta while risking large move through $400/$354.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 400 call, buy 7/17 400 call (sell higher IV leg short-dated) paired with stock purchase (PMCC)	Assignment risk and front-week volatility; term-structure arbitrage but requires equity leg capital.
Short-dated short put (naked)	Moderate-Weak	Sell 4/10 370 put cash-secured	High gamma into expiry; risk if spot drops below 370 and IV spikes.

Top Plays

Front-week short premium iron condor (tactical)

Sell 4/10 355/350 put x 400/405 call iron condor

Collects elevated front-week IV while using GEX pinning and MP $370 as support; structure benefits if spot stays in $354–$400 band.

Credit: $1.00-$1.60

Max loss: ~$3,400

BE: Lower BE 354.40 / Upper BE 401.60

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit at 50% of max credit; hedge or close if spot tags $354 or $405 with increasing volume.

Traders comfortable managing gamma into expiry

30–45 DTE calendar (sell front, buy back month)

Sell 4/10 375 call, buy 5/22 375 call (regular calendar — sell higher IV leg)

Exploit ~14–15 vol-pt front-week vs 45d spread; benefits from pinning and positive GEX causing range-bound drift while capturing front theta.

Credit: $0.70-$1.40

Max loss: Debit of long leg minus credit (net debit typically < $2.50)

BE: Range-dependent; target calendar roll at 30–50% realized theta capture

Mgmt: Buy back short leg on break above $400 or below $360; take profits when calendar shows 40–60% decay of short leg.

Defined-risk traders wanting multi-week theta with lower capital than short stock

Sell 45d 360/350 put spread (defined-risk yield)

Sell 5/22 360/350 put spread

Multi-week credit capture aligned with dealer pin and MP $370/$360 support; front IV rich enables attractive credit vs. risk below $354 guardrail.

Credit: $0.80-$1.50

Max loss: $900.00

BE: $359.20

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at half the initial risk; cut at spot <$354 or IV spike >+8 vol points.

Accounts seeking defined-risk premium with multi-week horizon

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds >= $370 for 30 minutes → Sell 4/10 355/350 put x 400/405 call iron condor

IFIf spot retests $375 and IV(3d) >82% → Sell 4/10 375 call and buy 5/22 375 call (calendar)

IFIf spot pulls back to $360 and 45d mid IV >=70% → Sell 5/22 360/350 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIf calendar short-leg (4/10) decays to <25% of initial price and 45d shows stable IV → Close short leg; keep long leg to run or roll out to 7/17

EXITIf VIX analogue or sector vol jumps >+10 vol points intraday and spot <$370 → Exit all short-premium positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: mean-reversion toward the $400 pin while MP $370 provides near-term support; invalidation <$354 short-term or clean breakout above $415 for upside continuation. Regime favors selling front-week premium and calendar/diagonal structures (top plays: front-week iron condor, 30–45d calendar, 45d put spread).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.