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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $698.74EOD only
Max Pain
$700.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$58.15
8.3% from close
Price Gap
+1.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MU Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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Outlook

MU: high vol, dealers short gamma, long delta. Spot 16% above MP ($625). Weak tech (QQQ -1.5%). Pullback to support expected. Mildly bearish 1-2w.

Confidence:
3.5 / 10
Base 5, -1 GEX/flow, -1 spot dist, +0.5 VIX. Net 3.5 moderate bearish.
Supports: Dealers long delta (+99.4M) provide support.
Conflicts: Short gamma ($-17.8M) amplifies moves; mixed flow reduces clarity.
🟡Gamma flip near $620 critical; break triggers acceleration.
🔻Tech weakness (QQQ -1.5%) aligns bearish.
🟢Long delta dealers provide floor.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High; IV elevated relative to historical.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative GEX -$17.8M; dealers short gamma amplifying moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed; net premium unclear.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~16% above $625 MP; reversion pressure.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — 2w ranges, high vol, trending gamma sustain bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$646.96$802.36
Test lower support near $623; negative GEX and tech weakness favor downside.
Next 2 weeks
$623.21$826.11
Range $623-$826; bias toward support unless hedging reverses.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $625 (2026-05-15); $690 (2026-05-22); $640 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 1w $646.96/$802.36
Support: $623.21
Resistance: $826.11
Gamma flip: ~$620.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,343 (14.4% below spot)
Structural: Support: $623, $620. Resistance: $802, $826. MP: $625, $690, $640.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-17.8M

DEX: +99.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$620 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,343 (14.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma -$17.8M, long delta +99.4M. Gamma flip near $620.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV high vs VIX 18.43, reflecting event risk.

Term structure: Upward sloping with OPEX kinks; front-end vol elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated; sell puts below $620 or buy upside calls for squeeze.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $290M; P/C vol 1.15, OI 1.26, call buying dominant.

Directional prints: 35.9 call 740 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 13.6, IV 35.9%; large volume, likely call buying. 32.1 call 735 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 18, IV 32.1%; high volume, likely bought. 98.7 put 615 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 74.5, IV 98.7%; heavy put buying, possible hedge.

Unusual: 98.7 put 615 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 74.5, IV 98.7%; extreme put activity. 500 put 50 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 38.7, IV 500%; deep OTM tail hedge, tiny premium. 37.4 call 742.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 20.5, IV 37.4%; unusual call volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $620 triggers rapid selloff to $600.
!Rally above $802 forces short-hedging, squeeze to $826.
!Correlation to QQQ; further tech weakness reinforces bearish.
!Unexpected catalyst (upgrade) could reverse bias.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $735.00/$680.00 put spread
Why now: Dealers short gamma, long delta; put spread limits upfront cost and captures downside to $700.
If rally above short strike, max loss = premium paid. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $960.00/$1010.00 call spread
Why now: High IV (86-89%); sell OTM calls to capture rich premium; resistance near $740.
If spot rallies above upper strike, max loss = width minus credit.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $735.00/$680.00 put spread
Buy $735/$680 put spread to capture downside while capping risk.
Why this play: Directly profits from expected pullback to $700 support, with limited upfront cost.
Debit: $26.55-$32.45
Max loss: $32.45
BE: $702.55
Mgmt: Exit if MU rallies above $826; consider early close near $700. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders expecting MU to drop to $700 within 6 weeks.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $960.00/$1010.00 call spread
Sell $960/$1010 call spread to collect premium with wide safety buffer.
Why this play: Sells high IV OTM calls, profiting from time decay and capped upside.
Credit: $5.06-$6.19
Max loss: $43.81
BE: $966.19
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max gain or if MU breaks above $826.
Traders expecting MU to stay below $826, favoring low-delta income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFMU closes below $620 (gamma flip) → Buy 2026-06-26 $735/$680 put spread (bs1)
IFMU rallies above $802 (first resistance) → Sell 2026-06-26 $960/$1010 call spread (bs2)
Exit Triggers
EXITMU breaks above $826.11 → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

MU bearish thesis: dealers short gamma, high IV, weak tech. Key support $620. Potential entry: if MU closes below $620, buy $735/$680 put spread; if MU rallies to $802, sell $960/$1010 call spread. Invalidation above $826.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.