Earnings Verdict
Earnings on 2026-04-29 (23 days out). IV elevated at 46.8% for post-earnings expiration (2026-05-01), suggesting crush play viable. Historical EPS beat rate 75% but recent miss introduces uncertainty. Key risk: IV crush may be less severe if VIX stays elevated.
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict
Most important: IV term structure shows sharp kink at 2026-05-01 (46.8% vs 37.7% pre), confirming earnings premium.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-04-29, EPS est $6.76
Regime Classification
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$36.9M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$117.1M, P/C 0.84)
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Below $500, dealers amplify moves; far from spot at $573.02
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (23 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-01 (25d): ±$54.95 (9.6%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 2026-05-01 (46.8% vs 37.7% pre-earnings)
Crush estimate: ~10 vol pts, back to ~37%
Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls based on P/C OI ratio 0.48
Historical Context
Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs expected
Directional bias: 3/4 gap up post-earnings
Key Levels
1$595.00 (GEX +$373K, call OI cluster)
2$585.00 (GEX +$288K)
3$575.00 (GEX +$146K)
4$550.00 (put OI cluster)
5$542.50 (put OI cluster)
6$525.00 (put OI cluster)
Flow Highlights
Heavy $575P 2026-04-08 buying (7,119 vol vs 120 OI, 59.3x)
Near-term downside protection or earnings hedge
Large net premium outflow -$117.1M with P/C volume ratio 0.84
Mixed flow, more call selling or put buying overall
Strategies
Iron condor
Sell $518.07/$512.80P x $627.97/$633.25C 2026-05-01
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings
Elevated IV at 46.8% supports premium sale; historical beat rate suggests contained moves
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds $518.07-$627.97
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >20%
Long straddle
Buy $572.5 straddle 2026-05-01
Trigger: Enter if IV hasn't spiked >50% from current levels
Historical directional bias (3/4 gap up) and elevated IV could lead to larger-than-expected move
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30%
Underperforms: Stock pins near max pain $562-$572, IV crushes ~10 pts
Put credit spread
Sell $550/$545P 2026-05-01
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings
Put OI clusters at $550 and below provide support; historical beat rate favors upside
Outperforms: Stock stays above $550
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $545
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 9.6% EM but could exceed on guidance change given recent EPS miss in 2025-09-30
!IV crush may disappoint if overall market vol (VIX) stays elevated, reducing crush magnitude
!Liquidity: High with 2.4M OI and 268K volume, but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to 23 days to earnings and potential early theta decay
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into earnings, especially 2026-05-01 expiration
?Unusual OTM put activity below $550
?Max pain pinning near $562-$572