base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Premium selling not favorable due to elevated IV; shift to non-premium strategies
Term structure: Front-week IV 99.5%, declining to 94.6% at 17d; slight backwardation
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-2.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,312 (3.4% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI at $800 (gamma flip); call wall $900-$1000; max pain $868 Jun26
#1Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $745.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $780.00 put
Short near-term put, long back-month put to profit from elevated IV and potential drop after earnings
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $745 to avoid assignment; monitor earnings Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.
#2Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $1000.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $830.00 call
Short near-term call, long back-month call to capture premium and gamma if spot stays below $1000
Mgmt: Roll short leg if spot nears $1000; watch for IV spike into earnings Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
!High IV and trending gamma increase move risk
!Negative dealer gamma ($-2.7M) amplifies spot swings
!Spot below max pain; potential drift but call OI caps upside