Term structure: Steep near-term contango, front-month IV 71% decaying to 89% at 9 days; elevated skew
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Trending ($-3.3M)
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,751 (8.0% below spot)
OI concentrations: Concentrated put OI at $800 (7K) and call wall at $1000-$1020; max pain pins at $800, $890, $940
#1Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $900.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $950.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later call to capture theta decay and IV drop post-earnings.
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $850 invalidation. Consider rolling if IV collapses.
#2Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $790.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $900.00 put
Sell front-month put, buy later put to benefit from put skew normalization.
Mgmt: Manage delta exposure; exit if spot rises above $850. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
!Negative dealer gamma ($-3.3M) amplifies spot moves
!High IV (avg ~110%) with looming max-pain expiry
!Put/Call OI ratio 1.31 suggests bearish skew
!Spot 8% above max pain, vulnerable to pinning