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INTU

Intuit Inc.Close $399.71EOD only
Max Pain
$395.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$36.35
9.1% from close
Price Gap
-4.71
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
INTU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~May 21 (inferred from term structure). IV elevated at ~50%, offering premium selling opportunities. Strong historical beat rate and bullish bias suggest potential for upside surprise, but heavy put flow and bearish net premium create headwinds. Best strategy is a defined-risk short premium play.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 strong historical beat rate & directional bias; +0 elevated IV; -0 no explicit earnings date
Most important: No explicit earnings date; inferred from term structure kink and historical pattern. Must confirm date before deploying capital.
⚠️Earnings date 5/21 is ESTIMATED based on historical pattern. CONFIRM before trading.
📉Extreme bearish flow (-$61M net prem) contradicts strong historical beat rate. Who knows more?
🎯Spot $432.38 is below max pain $435, creating slight upward pinning pressure into near-term expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 55%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$4.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem $-61.3M, P/C 1.89)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain $435 (spot $432.38)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-21 (51 days)inferred (historical pattern + term structure)

Expected moves:

  • 5/15 (45d): ±$57.30 (13.2%)
  • 6/18 (79d): ±$78.40 (18.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated and flat (48.5% - 50.6% across 2d to 108d). No sharp kink, suggesting earnings date is beyond the front few expirations.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~35%

Skew: Heavy OTM put flow suggests tail risk hedging. Unusual activity in deep OTM puts (e.g., $280P, $310P) at high IV.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data not provided for historical price moves vs expected moves.

Directional bias: All 4 recent quarters had positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1Max Pain $435
2EM 45d: $375 - $490
3OI Walls: $490C, $530C, $480C
4Unusual Put Strikes: $280, $310

Flow Highlights

Massive net premium outflow (-$61.3M) driven by huge OTM put buying (e.g., $860P: $9.4M net outflow).

Institutional hedging against significant downside risk, possibly related to earnings or macro concerns.

Unusual volume in deep OTM puts ($280P 5/8, $310P 4/24) with IV >80%.

Speculative or protective bets on a large downside move, creating expensive tail-risk premium to sell.

Strategies

Short Put Spread (Defined Risk Premium Sell)
Sell $400P / Buy $370P exp 6/18
Credit: $5.50-$7.50
Max loss: $22.50
Max gain: $7.50
BE: $392.50
Trigger: Enter 30-45 days before confirmed earnings date if IV >45%.
Capitalizes on elevated IV and strong historical beat rate. Strike is ~7.5% below spot, outside the 45d EM low. Collects premium from bearish put flow.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $400, IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $370 on earnings.
Iron Condor (Range-Bound Play)
Sell $400P / Buy $370P & Sell $480C / Buy $510C exp 6/18
Credit: $8.00-$11.00
Max loss: $22.00
Max gain: $11.00
BE: P: 389.0 / C: 491.0
Trigger: Enter 30-45 days before earnings if IV term structure is elevated.
Sells elevated IV on both sides. Short call strike aligns with OI wall at $480. Wide wings provide buffer against the 13.2% 45d expected move.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $400 and $480 through expiration.
Underperforms: Stock moves beyond either short strike by more than the credit received.
Long Straddle (Volatility Bet)
Buy $430 straddle exp 6/18
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Lower: $430 - debit, Upper: $430 + debit
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before confirmed earnings if IV hasn't spiked >55%.
Pure play on a larger-than-expected move. Historical 100% beat rate suggests potential for surprise, but expensive IV and likely crush make timing and sizing critical.
Outperforms: Actual earnings move exceeds priced-in move (EM ±$78.40).
Underperforms: Stock pins, IV crushes significantly post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Date Risk: Earnings date is inferred, not confirmed. A mis-timed trade will suffer theta decay.
!Gap Risk: 45d EM is ±13.2%. Downside risk is amplified by heavy bearish flow and OTM put buying.
!IV Crush: IV ~50% is elevated; expect significant crush post-earnings, hurting long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: OI/Volume sufficient for analysis but not ultra-liquid. Use limit orders.
!Macro Overhang: Bearish net premium flow suggests broader concerns that could overshadow earnings.

What to Watch

?Official earnings date announcement (likely late April/early May).
?IV trajectory in the May and June expirations for confirmation of earnings timing.
?Spot price action relative to max pain ($435) for pinning clues.
?Any increase in unusual OTM put activity, which could signal known downside catalysts.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.