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INTU

Intuit Inc.Close $399.71EOD only

Max Pain

$395.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$36.35

9.1% from close

Price Gap

-4.71

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

INTU Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a weak pinning force near $432. Confidence: 6/10. The regime is conflicted: positive GEX suggests pinning, but heavy bearish premium flow and a high P/C ratio signal underlying selling pressure. Expect choppy, range-bound action with a slight downward drift.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot at MP; -1 GEX/flow contradiction (bearish flow vs. pinning). Data quality caps confidence at 6.

Supports: GEX +$4.6M (pinning), spot at max pain ($435), DEX +3.5M shares (dealer long delta).
Conflicts: Net premium -$61.3M (bearish), P/C vol 1.89 (put-heavy), max pain trend falling.

⚠️High IV (54.6%) makes premium selling attractive, but flow is bearish.

📉Net premium -$61.3M is a strong institutional bearish signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 54.6% is extremely high, offering rich premium for sellers but reflecting significant uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$4.6M indicates dealer pinning pressure, but with thin OI, the force is weaker than in liquid names.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium -$61.3M with P/C vol 1.89 shows clear institutional put buying/hedging dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $432.38 vs. nearest MP $435 — essentially at max pain, supporting near-term pinning thesis.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow regime is consistent across expirations (negative net premium), and max pain shows a falling trend from $435 to $415-$430 over the next month. GEX positive but flow negative suggests a persistent tug-of-war.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$419.21$445.56

GEX pinning dominates; break below $419.21 (2d EM low) signals bearish follow-through.

Next 1 week

$406.23$458.53

Falling max pain ladder and bearish flow exert downward pressure; resistance at $458.53 (1w EM high).

Next 2 weeks

$397.23$467.53

Flow regime and max pain trend point lower; a break above $458.53 invalidates the bearish drift.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $435 (2026-03-27); $415 (2026-04-02); $430 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $419.21/$445.56; 1w $406.23/$458.53

Support:

Resistance: $490.00 · $530.00 · $480.00

Structural: Distant call OI walls at $480, $490, $530, and $700 cap long-term upside. No significant near-term put OI floors identified, leaving downside open.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.6M

DEX: +3.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Positive GEX suggests dealers are net long gamma, adding to pinning behavior. A move ±2% (~$424-$441) would see dealers buying dips and selling rips to hedge, reinforcing the range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 54.6% is extremely elevated (no VIX provided for direct comp), implying expensive options — edge to premium sellers.

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly upward sloping near-term (48.5% to 50.5% over 31 days), then flat out to 353 days. No major kinks, but all tenors are rich.

Skew: Extreme put skew visible in unusual activity: $280P (5/8) and $310P (4/24) traded at IVs >80%. This presents a potential skew sale opportunity for defined-risk put spreads closer to spot.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$61.3M bearish; P/C vol 1.89 (put-heavy), P/C OI 0.74.

Directional prints: 1) $430P saw net premium -$2.6M (likely bought puts for protection or directional bearish bet). 2) Far OTM puts ($280-$860) dominated top premium flow, totaling tens of millions in net negative premium — structural hedging or tail-risk protection. One line for all structural/hedging flow: Massive net put premium across deep OTM strikes indicates institutional portfolio hedging or fear of a major downside move.

Unusual: $280P 5/8 vol 290 vs OI 145 at IV 83.3% — either a cheap tail hedge purchase or an expensive premium sale; given overall flow, purchase is more consistent.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin breaks on a close outside $419-$446 (2d EM), leading to a directional move.

!High IV (54.6%) presents vol crush risk for long premium positions post-earnings (5/21).

!Persistent bearish flow could overwhelm the weak GEX pin, leading to a breakdown.

!Thin OI reduces precision of GEX/max pain signals versus mega-caps.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Bearish flow and high IV suggest better risk/reward elsewhere.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning creates headwinds for straight downside.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $445C (2d EM high) or $450C 4/10	Stock called away if pin breaks upside; opportunity cost.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $415/$410 put spread (targeting 4/10 MP) 4/10 expiry	Break below $410; high IV provides cushion.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV, bearish flow, and pinning are strong headwinds.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $430P / sell $415P 4/10, targeting drift to $415 MP	Pinning and positive GEX cause theta decay; defined risk via spread.
Iron condor	Moderate	$420P/$415P x $445C/$450C 4/10 (using 1w EM bounds)	GEX positive but VIX equivalent >28 (IV 54.6%) adds tail risk per threshold.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 4/10 $435C (IV 48.8%), buy 5/1 $435C (IV 50.5%) — reverse calendar for theta/vol harvest.	Requires pin at strike; small IV differential.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $420C, sell monthly $445C against it (e.g., 4/10).	Capital intensive; high LEAPS IV.

Top Plays

Bullish Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $415/$410 put spread, expiry 4/10

Capitalizes on high IV for premium sale, targets the multi-week max pain level at $415, and benefits from the GEX pinning effect. Defined risk below the 1w expected move low.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $413.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $415 (target MP level).

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias looking to collect rich premium with defined risk.

Covered Call Overlay

Own shares, sell the $445 Call, expiry 4/10

Generates income from extremely high IV while participating in any pinning drift upward. The $445 strike is at the 1-week expected move high, a logical resistance.

Credit: $8.50-$10.50

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if spot approaches $445. Close if pin breaks bearishly (spot < $420).

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield and reduce cost basis in a choppy, high-vol environment.

Long-Dated PMCC Diagonal

Buy Jan 2027 $420 Call, sell Apr 2027 $445 Call (approx 30 DTE short leg)

The 45+ DTE structure captures the structural high IV and allows repeated premium sales against a long-dated, lower-IV LEAPS. The extra time improves risk/reward by providing a long delta anchor that decays slower than the short call, and offers multiple cycles of income generation in a likely range-bound, high-vol regime.

Debit: $65.00-$75.00

Max loss: Cost of LEAPS minus net credits received

BE: LEAPS breakeven at expiry minus net credits

Mgmt: Manage the short leg: roll at 21 DTE or if tested. Close entire position if long-term thesis breaks (spot below $400).

Traders with a multi-month bullish outlook and sufficient capital, seeking to synthetically replicate a stock position with lower capital outlay and positive theta.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot dips to $425 (within pinning range) and holds for 1 hour → Enter $415/$410 put spread 4/10.

IFIf spot rallies to $445 (1w EM high) and shows rejection → Sell the $445/$450 call spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $415 (key max pain level) → Exit all short put positions and reconsider bearish strategies.

EXITIf net premium flow flips to positive (> +$20M) for a session → Take profits on bearish put spreads and reassess regime.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-vol, range-bound pinning with a bearish flow undercurrent favoring premium sales. Invalidation is a close below $415. The regime favors selling puts toward max pain ($415) or calls toward EM highs ($445). Top plays: 1) $415/$410 put spread for defined-risk premium, 2) Covered call at $445 for shareholders, 3) PMCC diagonal for a longer-term, income-oriented bullish stance.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.