base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Short-term elevated due to event risk, longer-term declining but still high; put skew extreme near-term
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+72.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,831 (24.0% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $125 near-term; Put floor $70-$100; Call wall $150-$170
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $119.00/$114.00 put spread
Sell put spread to capture elevated pre-earnings IV and benefit from IV contraction.
Mgmt: Exit if INTC breaks below $125 invalidation; close before earnings to avoid gap risk.
#2Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $119.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $125.00 put
Sell near-term put, buy back-month put for diagonal spread to capture term structure.
Mgmt: Monitor IV skew; adjust if spot approaches $125; exit after earnings IV crush.
!High put IV skew indicates tail risk
!Spot 5.3% from max pain may cause pinning
!Term structure not purely contango