base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 101.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; override: High pin risk offsets IV richness
Term structure: Steep front-end (1d 75% to 9d 83%), then flattish at ~82-89%
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+87.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$105.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,210 (13.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put wall $70-$110 (25k OI); Call wall $130-$150
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $105.00/$97.50 put wing and $150.00/$165.00 call wing
Sell put wing 105/97.5 and call wing 150/165 on Jul 17 expiry; credit 3.18-3.88; max loss 11.12; liquidity pass
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears 100 or VIX above 22; close at 50% max gain or 3 days before earnings
#2Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $111.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $110.00 put
Sell Jul 10 111p, buy Aug 21 110p; credit 5.49-6.71; max loss 6.71; invalidation at 110
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches short strike; close before earnings if uncertain
#3Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $100.00 put + sell $155.00 call
Sell Jul 17 100p and 155c; credit 5.78-7.07; unlimited loss; high liquidity
Mgmt: Set stop loss at 2x credit; reduce size or hedge if spot moves towards strikes
!No earnings risk in 7-day window
!Potential IV crush if event passes
!Gamma flip at $105 could accelerate move