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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $118.96EOD only

Max Pain

$109.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.97

6.7% from close

Price Gap

-9.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

INTC Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning magnet to $45 (max pain). Confidence: 8.5/10. The regime has flipped from conflicted to strongly aligned: spot has rallied 7.2% into the pin, GEX is now massively positive, and bullish flow intensified.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5 stands. GEX flipped from -$9M to +$75.4M, confirming pinning regime. Spot now only 1.9% below MP, making the target easily achievable. Bullish flow ($80.6M net prem) remains extreme.

Supports: GEX +$75.4M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$80.6M (bullish), P/C vol 0.64 (call dominance), Spot proximity to MP.
Conflicts: IV remains extremely high at 70%, suggesting underlying volatility risk. Distant MP trend falls to $35-$40.

🎯GEX regime flipped from negative to massively positive — dealers now pinning spot near $45.

💰Net premium flow surged to +$80.6M, the highest bullish conviction signal in the data.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 70% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers and defined-risk strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$75.4M — strong positive/pinning regime; dealer hedging suppresses volatility and gravitates spot toward max pain.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$80.6M with P/C vol 0.64 — overwhelmingly bullish institutional flow, now aligned with GEX.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $44.13 is 1.9% below $45 max pain — strong upward pinning gravity with minimal gap.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins at $44-$45 persist across the next 8 weekly expirations (through May). GEX sign is stable positive, and bullish flow is structural. The regime supports a multi-week pinning/grind scenario.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$40.11$48.16

Pinning dominates; break below $42.50 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$39.08$49.19

Pin to $45, then test of weekly EM high at $49.19.

Next 2 weeks

$38.21$50.06

Flow supports continued grind; $50 call wall (75,932 OI) is major resistance.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $45 (2026-03-27); $44 (2026-04-02); $44 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $40.11/$48.16; 1w $39.08/$49.19

Support: $15.00 · $30.00 · $20.00

Resistance: $70.00 · $50.00 · $50.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 55,406

Structural: Call OI walls at $50 and $70 cap major rallies; massive put floors at $15-$30 are irrelevant for trading but indicate long-term shareholder hedging.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+75.4M

DEX: +145.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 55,406)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$15 is far below spot — irrelevant. Positive GEX means dealers are net long gamma, hedging to suppress volatility and pin spot near high-OI strikes (like $45).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 70% — extremely elevated, offering rich premium for sellers. No VIX provided for comparison, but level is stratospheric.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 4/2 IV 73.0% > 4/10 IV 63.8%. Hump at 4/24 (73.2%) likely pricing the 4/23 earnings event. Longer-dated IV ~61-66%.

Skew: ~9 vol-pt differential between 4/2 (73%) and 4/17 (63.1%) — strong edge for reverse calendars selling the front week.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$80.6M bullish; P/C vol 0.64, P/C OI 0.86.

Directional prints: $50C: $18.4M net premium, OI 75,932 — massive bullish positioning. $45C: $7.9M net premium — direct bet on max pain. Interpretation: Consistent with bullish flow regime, these are likely long calls or call spreads (bought).

Unusual: Cluster of high-volume puts at $46-$48 for 4/2 & 4/10 (e.g., $48P 4/2 vol 13,219 vs OI 396). Could be protective puts for long stock or bullish put sales; the latter aligns with the bullish regime.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings on 4/23: IV hump at 4/24 expiry (73.2%) prices a major event; pin could break.

!IV crush: Steep inversion poses severe risk to long premium in near-term expirations after 4/2.

!$50 call wall (75,932 OI): Major supply zone that could halt the bullish grind.

!Distant MP trend falls to $35-$40, suggesting the long-term structural bias is lower.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares at $44	High IV and pinning reduce volatility, but thesis is aligned.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — contradicts strong pinning and bullish flow.	Squeeze risk into $45 pin.
Covered call	Strong	Buy stock, sell $45C or $46C 4/10 or 4/17.	Stock rallies past short strike; shares called away.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $42/$40 put spread 4/17 (above 2-week EM low of $38).	Break below $42 triggers loss.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $45C 4/17 or 5/1.	High IV crush risk if pin holds and spot doesn't move.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Weak	Avoid — contradicts regime.	Squeeze risk.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	$42P/$40P x $48C/$50C 4/17 (bounds: above EM low & below OI wall).	Earnings volatility after 4/17 expiry.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell $45C 4/2 (IV 73%), buy $45C 4/17 (IV 63.1%) — reverse calendar.	Spot moves sharply away from $45 before 4/2.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $35C Jan 2027 (IV ~62%), sell $45C 4/17 or 5/1 against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin may not materialize quickly.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $45 Call 4/2, Buy $45 Call 4/17.

Exploits the steep 9+ vol-pt inversion by selling expensive front-week IV and buying cheaper multi-week IV. Profits if the pin holds through Friday as the short leg decays rapidly. The 30+ DTE long leg provides room for the multi-week pin thesis.

Debit: $-0.55-$-0.40

Max loss: $0.55

BE: Complex; max profit near $45 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close for profit after 4/2 expiry if pin holds. If spot moves >$1 away from $45 before 4/2, consider adjusting long leg into a diagonal. Exit if IV inversion flattens prematurely.

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias who believe the $45 pin will hold through this week.

Covered Call at Max Pain

Buy stock at ~$44, sell the $45 Call expiring 4/10.

Captures the bullish pin drift to $45 while collecting rich premium (~$1.00-1.30) from elevated IV. Defined upside to ~$46.30. The multi-week thesis supports rolling the call if pin holds.

Credit: $1.00-$1.30

Max loss: $42.70

BE: $42.70

Mgmt: Take profit: Buy back call at <$0.20 if pin holds mid-week. Adjust: If stock surges past $45, roll up and out for a credit. Exit on a decisive break below $42.

Investors willing to own INTC, seeking to lower cost basis with high-probability income.

Bull Put Spread

Sell $42 Put, Buy $40 Put expiring 4/17.

A bullish/neutral premium collection trade with strikes above the 2-week EM low ($38). High IV provides an attractive credit for a spread that benefits from pin drift, time decay, and stability. Defined risk aligns with the pinning regime.

Credit: $0.75-$0.95

Max loss: $1.25

BE: $41.25

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Roll down/out if spot threatens $42. Exit on a close below $41.

Defined-risk traders who believe the downside is contained by the EM and pinning gravity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot pulls back to $43.00 (near 4/10 max pain) and holds → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $43C 4/2, Buy $43C 4/17.

IFSpot tags $45.00 (max pain) and stalls → Sell the $45/$48 call credit spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $42.00 (below key OI strike) → Exit all bullish/non-hedged positions; pin thesis is breaking.

EXITIV term structure flattens (4/2 IV < 65%) → Take profits on all calendar/diagonal spreads.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A multi-week pinning grind toward and around $45 max pain, driven by massively positive GEX and extreme bullish flow. Favor selling rich premium with a bullish skew (covered calls, put spreads) or exploiting the IV inversion with calendars. Invalidation is a close below $42. Top plays: 1) Reverse Calendar for vol arb, 2) Covered Call for stock owners, 3) Bull Put Spread for defined-risk traders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.