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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $118.96EOD only

Max Pain

$109.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.97

6.7% from close

Price Gap

-9.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

INTC Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 30, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $45 max pain, but facing significant structural headwinds. Confidence: 3/10. The regime is contradictory: bullish flow and pinning target conflict with negative GEX and a spot price far below the pin, suggesting a painful squeeze higher is needed to resolve.

Confidence:

3 / 10

base 3; +1 for strong bullish flow and consistent pin target; -1 for negative GEX (trending) opposing pin; -1 for spot 8.5% below max pain requiring a large move; +1 for high IV offering premium-selling edge.

Supports: Net premium +$15.1M bullish, P/C vol 0.39 (extreme call dominance), max pain consistently $45 across near-term expirations.
Conflicts: GEX -$9.0M (negative/de-hedging), spot at $41.17 is 8.5% below $45 max pain, MP trend falls to $40 over time.

⚡Extreme call flow (P/C vol 0.39) targets $45, but GEX negative suggests path will be volatile.

🎯Max pain $45 is a magnet across 6 consecutive weekly expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 72.2% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers and defined-risk strategies.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$9.0M — negative/de-hedging regime; dealer hedging amplifies spot moves, supporting trends over pinning.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$15.1M with P/C vol 0.39 — overwhelmingly bullish institutional flow targeting upside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $41.17 is 8.5% below $45 max pain — strong upward pinning gravity, but a large gap to close.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pin at $45 persists across 6 weekly expirations (through 4/24), and bullish flow/GEX conflict suggests a multi-week resolution. The MP trend eventually falls, indicating the pin is not permanent.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$37.42$44.92

Driven by pin gravity and call flow; failure below $41 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $45 (2026-03-27); $45 (2026-04-02); $45 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails:

Support: $15.00 · $20.00 · $30.00

Resistance: $50.00 · $70.00 · $50.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 55,406

Structural: Call OI walls at $50 and $70 cap major rallies; put floors at $30 and $20 provide distant but massive support. The $45 level is the near-term nexus.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-9.0M

DEX: +139.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 55,406)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$15 is far below spot, irrelevant for near-term hedging. Negative GEX means dealers are net short gamma; their hedging (buying high, selling low) will amplify spot moves in either direction.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 72.2% — extremely elevated, offering rich premium for sellers. Implied move for 12 days is ±9.1%.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 4-day IV 70.7% > 12-day IV 63.1%. Hump at 4/24 (70.4%) likely pricing an event. Longer-dated IV ~61-65%.

Skew: High near-term IV vs. lower 30-45 DTE IV creates a ~7 vol-pt differential, favoring calendar spreads selling the front week.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$15.1M bullish; P/C vol 0.39 (extreme call skew), P/C OI 0.88.

Directional prints: $42C 4/24 vol 10,469 vs OI 39 (268x) — large, likely bought call flow targeting post-event move. $42C 4/2 vol 2,073 vs OI 256 — near-term bullish bet. Interpretation: Consistent with bullish flow regime, these are likely long calls or call spreads.

Unusual: $36C 5/8 vol 178 vs OI 1 at IV 88.8% — deep OTM call sweep, possibly a cheap lottery ticket or part of a complex spread.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative GEX: Dealers amplify moves, increasing volatility and breaking supposed ranges.

!Pin failure: A failure to rally toward $45 could trigger accelerated selling as call hedges unwind.

!IV crush: Steep near-term IV inversion poses risk to long premium positions after 4/2 expiry.

!Structural OI: $50 call wall (75,729 OI) is a major supply zone if $45 breaks.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $41.17	Negative GEX and distance to pin increase drawdown risk before any squeeze.
Short stock	Weak	Sell shares at $41.17	Strong bullish flow and max pain gravity create potent squeeze risk.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock, sell $45C 4/10 or 4/17 (~$1.00-1.50 credit)	Stock rallies past $45, shares called away; negative GEX increases volatility.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $38/$35 put spread 4/17 (EM low bound vs. put floor)	Negative GEX accelerates breakdown below support.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $42C 4/17	High IV and negative GEX make timing difficult; pin may take weeks to resolve.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Weak	Avoid — contradicts strong bullish flow and pin.	Squeeze risk.
Iron condor	Moderate	$38P/$35P x $45C/$48C 4/17 (bounds: EM low & max pain/EM high)	Negative GEX (trending) violates range-bound assumptions; VIX context unknown but high IV helps.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $45C 4/2 (IV 70.7%), buy $45C 4/17 (IV 64.6%) — reverse calendar (sell near, buy far).	Spot moves sharply away from $45, eroding long leg value.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $35C Jan 2027, sell $45C 4/17 or 5/1 against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin may not materialize, decaying short leg.

Top Plays

Covered Call at Max Pain

Buy stock at ~$41.17, sell the $45 Call expiring 4/17.

Captures the bullish pin drift toward $45 while collecting rich premium (~$1.30) from elevated IV. Defined upside to $46.30. Best if you are willing to own INTC at a net cost of ~$39.87.

Credit: $1.20-$1.40

Max loss: $39.87

BE: $39.87

Mgmt: Take profit: Buy back call at <$0.20 if pin holds mid-week. Adjust: If stock surges past $45, consider rolling up and out. Exit: Close entire position on a decisive break below $38.

Investors comfortable owning INTC, seeking to lower cost basis with a high-probability income trade.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell the $45 Call expiring 4/2, buy the $45 Call expiring 4/17.

Exploits the steep IV inversion (70.7% vs 64.6%) by selling expensive near-term vol and buying cheaper longer-dated vol. Profits if spot stays near $45 through next Friday, as the short leg decays rapidly. The 30+ DTE long leg provides room for the multi-week pin thesis to play out.

Debit: $-0.65-$-0.50

Max loss: $0.65

BE: Complex; max profit near $45 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close for profit after 4/2 expiry if pin holds. If spot moves far from $45 before 4/2, consider adjusting the long leg into a diagonal. Exit if the IV inversion flattens.

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias who believe the $45 pin will hold through next week.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell the $38 Put, buy the $35 Put expiring 4/17.

A bullish-to-neutral trade that collects premium while defining risk well below the 12-day expected move low ($37.42). The $38 strike aligns with a key premium flow support level. High IV provides an attractive credit for a spread that benefits from pin drift, time decay, and any stability above $38.

Credit: $0.85-$1.05

Max loss: $2.15

BE: $37.15

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Roll down/out if spot threatens $38. Exit on a close below $37.42 (EM low).

Traders with a defined-risk appetite who believe the downside is contained by the EM and flow support.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to test $43.60 (4-day EM high) and stalls → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $44C 4/2, buy $44C 4/17.

IFSpot pulls back to $40.00 (major OI strike) and holds → Sell the $38/$35 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $46.00 (above 12-day EM high) → Take profits on all short premium positions (covered calls, put spreads).

EXITSpot closes below $37.42 (12-day EM low) → Exit all bullish/non-hedged positions; pin thesis is broken.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A volatile, multi-week grind higher toward the $45 max pain magnet, fueled by extreme call flow but opposed by negative GEX. Favor selling rich premium with a bullish skew (covered calls, put spreads) or playing the pin with calendars. Invalidation is a close below $37.42. Top plays: 1) Covered Call for stock owners, 2) Reverse Calendar for volatility arbitrage, 3) Put Spread for defined-risk premium capture.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 30, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.