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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.94EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.32
0.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
3.84
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

HYG exhibits bearish flow and strongly negative dealer gamma, suggesting downside drift. Low vol and spot at max pain ($80) reinforce cautious bearish bias, with key support at $79 gamma flip.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 from regime alignment; +2 GEX/flow bearish alignment; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18 supporting low vol.
Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, spot near max pain $80, support at $79 gamma flip.
Conflicts: Positive DEX (+182.7M shares) offers potential buying support; low vol may slow momentum.
🔻Dealers short gamma with -$917.7M GEX, amplifying downside momentum.
📊Max pain pinned at $80 across expirations, acting as magnet.
⚠️Gamma flip at $79 critical; below could accelerate selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
IV low relative to history, VIX 17.68, suggesting complacency. Low vol supports gradual trending.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with -$917.7M net GEX. Dealers short gamma, hedging fades; trending indicates momentum may override.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net premium bearish with put dominance, aligning with negative GEX.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot near max pain $80 for multiple expirations, increasing pin action likelihood.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pin at $80 for 6/12 expiry and 1w range, low vol and trending gamma favor short-term drift toward support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$79.62$80.26
Range 79.62-80.26; downside toward gamma flip $79 if support breaks.
Next 2 weeks
$79.44$80.44
Range 79.44-80.44; trend likely to test lower bound with resistance at 80.44.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-06-12); $80 (2026-06-18); $80 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $79.62/$80.26
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $80.44 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 455,226 (1.2% below spot)
Structural: Key support at $79 (gamma flip), resistance $80.44-$81. Max pain pinned at $80 across expiries.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-917.7M

DEX: +182.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 455,226 (1.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma -$917.7M NTM, flip at ~$79. Positive delta +182.7M shares provides long bias, but short gamma dominance amplifies moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV low vs history, in line with VIX 17.68, not overpriced. Low vol supports selling strategies.

Term structure: Flat to slight contango, no major event kinks. Focus near-term expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to bearish flow; low vol makes put selling attractive if bullish, but with bearish bias consider buying puts for protection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -10.7M with put/call vol ratio 2.52 and OI ratio 3.84, indicating strong bearish flow.

Directional prints: 14 put 70 OTM 2027-01-15 — 50k vol vs 9.6k OI (5.2x) suggests opening OTM puts, likely bought. Bearish. 12.5 put 75 OTM 2027-01-15 — 50k vol vs 13.3k OI (3.8x), similar OTM put buying, reinforces bearish view.

Unusual: 10.8 put 79 OTM 2027-01-15 — 21k vol vs 3.7k OI (5.8x). ITM put buying unusual, likely protective or directional. 14 put 70 OTM 2027-01-15 — Extreme vol/OI ratio (5.2x) unusual for OTM put. 12.5 put 75 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 3.8x also unusual, heavy put accumulation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Positive dealer delta could support on dips.
!Low vol may cap sharp moves.
!Break above $81 invalidates bearish thesis.
!Unexpected macro event spikes vol.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.50/$79.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from continued decline with limited capital at risk.
If price rises above short strike, potential loss limited to debit paid. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (135%).
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.50 put
Why now: Unlimited profit potential if HYG declines further; limited loss to premium.
Time decay works against; low vol may limit profit. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (135%).

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.50/$79.00 put spread
Buy $79.50/$79.00 put spread expiring 2026-06-26: capitalizes on bearish flow and negative gamma.
Why this play: Defined-risk debit spread profits from continued decline with limited capital at risk.
Debit: $0.10-$0.13
Max loss: $0.13
BE: $79.37
Mgmt: Close if HYG breaks above $80.44 invalidation level. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (135%).
Conservative traders wanting capped risk and defined reward.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.50 put
Buy $79.50 put expiring 2026-06-26: expresses strong directional bearish view.
Why this play: Unlimited profit potential if HYG declines further; limited loss to premium.
Debit: $0.19-$0.24
Max loss: $0.24
BE: $79.26
Mgmt: Manage with stop loss at premium loss; take profits on sharp moves. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (135%).
Aggressive traders seeking max leverage on downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFHYG price breaks below $79.50 → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-06-26 $79.50/$79.00 put spread
IFHYG price drops below $79.00 → Enter long put: buy 2026-06-26 $79.50 put
Exit Triggers
EXITHYG price breaches above $80.44 → Close all bearish positions (bear put spread and long put)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias from negative dealer gamma and put flow. Max pain at $80, support at $79 gamma flip. Trade downside via bear put spread at $79.50 break or long put below $79. Invalidate above $80.44.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.