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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.62EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.34
0.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
3.72
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias: negative gamma and bearish flow pressure amid low vol, spot near gamma flip $79. Expect test of $79 support within 1-2 weeks, with potential break lower.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20.
Supports: Negative gamma amplification, bearish option flow, spot near gamma flip $79.
Conflicts: Low vol regime may cap downside momentum; spot at max pain $80 could pin.
🚩Negative gamma $2.2B: dealers amplify moves below $79.
📉Bearish flow: net put premium dominates.
🎯Max pain $80: key pin risk for June expiries.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low: IV below typical range for HYG, reflecting calm credit conditions.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending: large negative gamma ($2.2B) near gamma flip $79, hedging amplifies moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish: net put premium dominates, skew toward downside protection.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At: spot near $80 max pain across all expiries, pinning risk.
Thesis duration: Structural — Negative gamma and bearish flow are structural imbalances; low vol may give way to break below $79.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.29$79.96
Range bound near $80, negative gamma may push lower toward $79.
Next 1 week
$79.00$80.24
Expect test of support $79; gamma flip could trigger acceleration.
Next 2 weeks
$78.81$80.44
Break below $79 targets $78; structural risks weigh.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-06-12); $80 (2026-06-18); $80 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.29/$79.96; 1w $79.00/$80.24
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $80.44 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 511,815 (0.8% below spot)
Structural: Key structural support at $79 (gamma flip, put OI concentration). Resistance at $80.44 (1w high) and $81. Break below $79 opens path to $78.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.2B

DEX: +186.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 511,815 (0.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma ($2.2B negative), net long delta (+186M shares). Near $79 gamma flip, hedging amplifies downward moves if broken.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV is low vs VIX 20, suggesting cheap protection; low vol may indicate complacency.

Term structure: Term structure likely flat or contango; no event kinks noted; longer-dated vols slightly higher.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to bearish flow; consider put spreads as cheap downside hedges.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$3.73M (bearish); put/call vol ratio 3.45, OI ratio 3.72, strong put skew.

Directional prints: 33.8 put 45 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol 2000 vs OI 112 (ratio 17.9). Deep OTM put, likely bought for tail hedge or speculation. Bearish if bought, neutral if sold (unlikely given low OI and high vol). 19.7 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180 (ratio 2.2). OTM put, moderate activity. Bearish if bought; sold could be bearish premium collection. Net bearish bias. 10.7 put 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 300 vs OI 200 (ratio 1.5). Near ATM/ITM put, likely hedging or bearish positioning. Vol slightly elevated; bearish if bought.

Unusual: 33.8 put 45 OTM 2026-12-18 — Extreme vol/OI 17.9, deep OTM, high IV. Outlier print; possible tail hedge buy or speculative put. Unusual given low OI. 19.7 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 2.2, OTM put with elevated activity. Unusual relative to typical flow; suggests bearish sentiment. 10.7 put 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.5, near-term put with moderate unusual volume. ITM/ATM put activity stands out.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pin action at $80 (max pain) keeping price range-bound.
!Low vol regime persists if credit stays calm, limiting downside.
!Unexpected credit event could spike vol quickly.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $77.50/$77.00 put spread
Why now: High put OI and bearish flow align with defined-risk debit spread to capture downside.
Pin risk near $80 max pain; low vol regime may limit profit if move is slow. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (181%).
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $78.50 put
Why now: Low vol offers cheap premium for tail hedge; high put OI suggests continued pressure.
Time decay if move delayed; vol contraction can offset gamma gains. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-26 $80.50/$82.00 call spread
Why now: Low vol and pin at $80 favor selling overpriced out-of-the-money calls.
Unexpected credit rally could cause loss; low premium relative to max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Bearish risk reversalConditional
Buy 2026-06-26 $78.00 put / sell 2026-06-26 $81.00 call
Why now: Negative gamma and high put skew make bearish risk reversal attractive for potential vol expansion.
Unlimited upside risk from short call if rally; requires active management. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bearish risk reversal
Buy 2026-06-26 $78.00 put / sell 2026-06-26 $81.00 call
Buy put, sell call for net credit; benefits from downside move and vol rise.
Why this play: Aligns with negative gamma and high put skew, captures vol expansion.
Debit: $0.07-$0.09
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $81.00
Mgmt: Monitor gamma; adjust if spot stabilizes above $80. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Experienced traders comfortable with unlimited risk
#2
Long put
Buy 2026-06-26 $78.50 put
Outright put purchase as tail hedge or directional bet.
Why this play: Direct bearish play with cheap premium due to low vol.
Debit: $0.15-$0.19
Max loss: $0.19
BE: $78.31
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% premium decay; roll if vol spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure
#3
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $80.50/$82.00 call spread
Sell OTM call spread to collect premium; limited risk.
Why this play: High probability trade exploiting pin action at $80 and low vol.
Credit: $0.05-$0.07
Max loss: $1.43
BE: $80.57
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $80.44; hold to expiry if below. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Income-focused traders with neutral-bearish view

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $79.00 (gamma flip) → THEN enter bearish risk reversal: buy 2026-06-26 $78.00 put / sell 2026-06-26 $81.00 call
IFIF spot holds below $80.44 → THEN buy 2026-06-26 $78.50 put as tail hedge
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes above $80.44 → THEN exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with key support at $79 (gamma flip). Primary entry on break below $79 via bearish risk reversal. Secondary tail hedge via long put if spot holds below $80.44. Exit if spot reclaims $80.44.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.