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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.83EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.19
0.2% from close
Price Gap
-0.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
3.84
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish thesis on HYG: risk-off macro (SPY -2.6%, QQQ -4.8%), heavily negative dealer gamma (-$3.0B GEX), bearish flow. Spot at $80 max pain, gamma flip at $79 opens downside. VIX >21 signals macro risk, but HYG IV low limits vol-driven moves.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 spot near MP +0.5 VIX 22 = 8.5. High confidence due to strong alignment across factors.
Supports: Negative GEX, bearish flow, risk-off macro, spot at max pain.
Conflicts: HYG IV low despite VIX>21, limiting vol-driven moves; max pain pin at $80 could hold.
📉Dealer short gamma amplifies downside moves.
💰Bearish flow confirms selling pressure.
📍Spot pinned at $80 max pain, but flip at $79.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
HYG IV is relatively low vs historical and vs VIX (21.5), as credit markets remain stable. Elevated VIX adds macro risk but not directly reflected in HYG vol.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$3.0B, strongly negative, gamma flip near $79. Dealers short gamma, amplifying moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net premium bearish; put/call ratio elevated, indicating protective buying.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $80 max pain for all expiries, creating pin action but gamma flip below.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow, negative gamma, and elevated VIX in risk-off environment support a multi-week bearish outlook.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$78.89$79.98
Range 78.89-79.98; bias lower toward support at 79.
Next 2 weeks
$78.70$80.17
Range 78.7-80.17; gamma flip and macro headwinds target 78-79.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-06-05); $80 (2026-06-12); $80 (2026-06-18)
EM guardrails: 1w $78.89/$79.98
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $79.50 · $80.17 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 565,101 (0.5% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pinned $80 across all expiries. Key support $79 (gamma flip), $78; resistance $79.5, $80.17. 1w EM guardrails $78.89/$79.98.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.0B

DEX: +196.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 565,101 (0.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$3.0B, DEX +196.9M shares. Gamma flip near $79; dealers heavily short gamma, amplifying downside moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV is low relative to VIX 21.5, making hedges cheap. Risk-off could spike IV.

Term structure: Term structure relatively flat with slight backwardation in front month given macro uncertainty.

Skew: Put skew elevated; low IV offers opportunity to buy puts for tail risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$20.8M (net sell), put/call volume ratio 4.15, strong bearish sentiment.

Directional prints: 17.2 put 70 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 10k vs OI 1.3k (7.7x); deep OTM put, likely bought as bearish bet. Could be sold for premium, but net flow suggests buying. 18.9 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180 (2.2x); ITM put with elevated volume, bearish positioning. Preferred read: bought puts.

Unusual: 9.7 call 79.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 7.7k vs OI 507 (15.2x); extremely high ratio. Could be bullish buy or short covering sell. Given bearish net, likely sold calls. 17.2 put 70 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 10k vs OI 1.3k (7.7x); deep OTM put, unusual size. Preferred read: bought puts, bearish. 13.8 call 75 ITM 2027-05-21 — Vol 273 vs OI 180 (1.5x); long-dated call, low ratio but notable duration. Could be bullish or hedging; unlikely significant.

Risks & Catalysts

!Short squeeze if risk-on reverses.
!Max pain pin at $80 could limit downside.
!Low vol may persist if credit markets stable.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00/$75.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish bias with multi-week horizon; spread lowers cost and risk vs. outright put.
Max loss if HYG rallies above $79; short put leg caps upside of long put.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-02 $78.50 put
Why now: Convex downside exposure with defined risk; aligns with bearish flow and dealer gamma.
Time decay if HYG remains above $79; full premium loss if spot stays above strike. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (87%). Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-02 $79.00 missing; used 2026-07-02 $78.50.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00/$75.00 put spread
Downside capture with defined risk and cost efficiency.
Why this play: Better risk/reward than long put; spread lowers cost and has liquidity pass.
Debit: $0.43-$0.52
Max loss: $0.52
BE: $78.48
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip at $79; exit if spot rises above 79.5.
Traders seeking bearish exposure with limited capital at risk.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-02 $78.50 put
Uncapped downside potential with defined upfront risk.
Why this play: Convex downside if sharp drop; but higher cost and lower liquidity.
Debit: $0.27-$0.33
Max loss: $0.33
BE: $78.17
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 79.5; consider rolling if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (87%). Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-02 $79.00 missing; used 2026-07-02 $78.50.
Traders with strong conviction of a large move lower.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFHYG breaks below $79 (gamma flip) with bearish flow confirmed. → Buy HYG-1 bear put spread (2026-07-17 $79/$75 put spread) at $0.43-$0.52.
Exit Triggers
EXITHYG closes above $79.5 (invalidation level) intraday. → Exit all bearish positions; reassess bias.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on HYG due to macro risk-off and negative dealer gamma. Key support at $79 (gamma flip), resistance at $79.5. Recommended bear put spread (HYG-1) to capture downside with defined risk. Monitor for break below $79 for entry; exit if $79.5 reclaimed.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.