GS Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; +1 for large bearish premium prints; -1 for mixed flow regime; -0.5 for spot above max pain with pinning gamma

Watch next session: $830 Put (4/2) OI and flow; Spot reaction near $855-$860 level (major put premium zone); Any large call buying to offset the bearish put flow

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$42.9M (Bullish on surface, but misleading)

P/C volume ratio: 1.02 — Perfectly balanced volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.93 — Slight call lean in positioning

The headline net premium is bullish, but this is driven by massive, deep OTM call purchases (likely speculative or hedging). The actionable, near-spot flow shows significant bearish put premium dominance at key resistance levels ($855, $970, $1100), indicating institutional hedging against a pullback. Volume is balanced, but money is moving in opposite directions: speculation far OTM vs. protection near-term.

Notable Prints

GS 260402P00830000 ($830 Put, 4/2)

Vol: 1,883

OI: 152

Vol/OI: 12.4x

IV: 40.0%

Notional: ~$1.56M (1883 * $830 * 100)

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or protective hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) as a short-term hedge against a drop below $830.

Read-through: Most significant near-term bearish signal. Establishes $830 as a key support level to watch, just below the expected move low of $824.79.

GS 260417C00925000 ($925 Call, 4/17)

Vol: 1,331

OI: 217

Vol/OI: 6.1x

IV: 40.1%

Notional: ~$1.23M (1331 * $925 * 100)

Intent: OTM call buying for leveraged upside speculation

Dual read: Bought to open (bullish bet) or part of a complex spread (e.g., call diagonal).

Read-through: Represents bullish speculation, but target is 9.3% above spot. This is a low-delta, high-risk bet, contrasting with the more defensive near-term put flow.

GS 270115P00290000 ($290 Put, 1/15/27)

Vol: 709

OI: 130

Vol/OI: 5.5x

IV: 62.9%

Notional: ~$205,610 (709 * $290 * 100)

Intent: Tail-risk hedge or part of a leveraged capital structure trade

Dual read: Extreme OTM put purchase for catastrophic hedge, likely paired with short stock or calls.

Read-through: Not a near-term directional signal. The elevated IV suggests this is an expensive, long-dated disaster hedge, not a tactical bearish bet.

GS 260402P00860000 ($860 Put, 4/2)

Vol: 248

OI: 106

Vol/OI: 2.3x

IV: 40.6%

Notional: ~$213,280 (248 * $860 * 100)

Intent: Near-dated protective put purchase

Dual read: Bought to hedge a long position against a move below $860.

Read-through: Supports the bearish near-term flow theme, adding protection just above spot. Combined with the $830 and $840 puts, it builds a defensive wall for the 4/2 expiry.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Deep OTM calls ($320, $350, $480 strikes) show massive premium inflow, but these are likely speculative or part of leveraged strategies, not near-term directional bets.

Put additions: Significant protective put buying at near-spot strikes: $855, $970, $1020, $1100. This is where the 'smart money' hedging is concentrated, creating strong resistance zones.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially consistent. Positive GEX (+$6.1M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces, which aligns with spot being above max pain. However, the heavy put premium flow suggests some players are hedging against a break of that pin.

OI clusters: Major OI clusters are far OTM: $1360/$1280/$1390 Calls and $800/$740 Puts. These create distant magnets/walls but don't impact near-term price action. The $800 Put OI (2,038) is notable as a potential gamma flip level.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of hedging in the top premium flow: $2.66M put premium at $855, $2.15M at $970, $1.90M at $1100. These are large, single-strike protective positions.

Max pain context: Spot ($845.99) is 3.8% above nearest max pain ($815). The pinning gamma regime and positive GEX support a drift lower toward max pain, which aligns with the bearish near-term put flow.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep OTM call premium ($320, $350, $480) is massive noise for directional analysis. These are likely low-delta lottery tickets or part of complex, multi-leg positions (e.g., call spreads, ratio trades).

~Extreme OTM long-dated puts ($290 Jan'27, $370 Sep'26) are tail-risk hedges, not tactical bearish bets. Their high IV and far OTM nature make them poor directional indicators.

~The $1300 Call (5/15) activity, while unusual, is also a low-delta, far OTM speculative play and should be discounted for near-term direction.

~The headline Net Premium of +$42.9M is misleading signal; it's overwhelmingly driven by the deep OTM call speculation. The actionable signal is in the near-spot put premium dominance.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Mixed signals: Bullish speculation far OTM vs. bearish hedging near-spot.

🛡️Institutions are heavily hedging near-term downside at $855, $970, and $1100.

📌Gamma pinning regime + spot above max pain supports a drift lower toward $815-$830.

🎯Watch $830 (4/2 Put OI) as key near-term support. A break targets max pain at $815.

Read the Flow analysis for GS for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.