base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Steep inversion near term due to event; back-end ~36-37%
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+39.1M)
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,138 (8.9% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put floor $330 26k OI; call wall $400-$415; max pain $335/$365/$370
#1Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $350.00 put + sell $385.00 call
Short OTM strangle exploits elevated IV and theta decay before earnings.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks guardrails $356.45/$367.75; target 50% profit.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $350.00/$340.00 put wing and $380.00/$385.00 call wing
Iron condor profits from expected IV drop and time decay post-earnings.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% profit or if spot nears short strikes.
!High front-week IV suggests binary event—confirm earnings or catalyst
!Spot 8.1% from max pain $335 can cause pinning pressure
!Dealer net long gamma but put/call oi ratio 0.82 indicates neutral positioning