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GOOG

Alphabet Inc.Close $384.90EOD only

Max Pain

$390.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.95

2.8% from close

Price Gap

+5.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

GOOG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish with high confidence, targeting a grind toward $295-$300. Confidence: 9/10. Spot is pinned with strong positive GEX, and the prior flow contradiction has resolved decisively bullish with net premium flipping to +$8.7M and P/C ratios below 0.75.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.7% from MP. No override: signals are coherent.

Supports: GEX +$33.5M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$8.7M (bullish), P/C Vol 0.73 (call dominance), Spot at MP.
Conflicts: None significant. The falling MP trend ($292 → $285) is the only minor counter-current.

📈Flow regime flipped from Mixed/Bearish to Bullish — net premium now +$8.7M.

📊GEX surged from +$7.1M to +$33.5M — pinning force intensified.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 38.1% is elevated; selling premium has edge on range-bound moves, but the bullish flow suggests buying dips is also viable.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$33.5M — dealers are strongly long gamma, suppressing volatility and reinforcing a pin near current levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$8.7M with P/C ratios ~0.73 — clear institutional call buying or put selling, confirming the bullish bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot ($294.46) is at the 4/2 max pain ($280) and near 4/10 ($290) — immediate pin pressure is mixed, but the upward drift to later MP levels ($295) is clear.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Positive GEX and bullish flow are consistent across expirations. Max pain ladder shows a clear upward trend from $280 (4/2) to $295 (4/17 onward), supporting a multi-week drift higher.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$285.01$303.91

Pinning GEX and bullish flow dominate; a break below $285.01 invalidates.

Next 2 weeks

$280.68$308.23

Flow supports continuation; watch for resistance at the $315-$320 call OI wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $292 (2026-03-27); $280 (2026-04-02); $290 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $285.01/$303.91

Support:

Resistance: $330.00 · $320.00 · $320.00

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $315-$340 cap explosive rallies. Distant put OI is negligible, removing a clear structural floor below $270.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+33.5M

DEX: +46.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated near spot. A move ±2% triggers dealer hedging to *counter* the move, reinforcing the range and making breakouts more difficult.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 38.1% is elevated (no VIX provided). Implication: selling premium has edge, but directional flow supports buying dips.

Term structure: Humped with a steep kink at 5/1 (37.0%), pricing the 4/23 earnings event. Front-week (4/10) IV at 27.7% is relatively cheap.

Skew: The 5/1 expiry is ~7-9 vol points richer than 4/10 — supports a reverse calendar (sell 5/1, buy 4/10) to harvest event vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$8.7M bullish; P/C vol 0.73, P/C OI 0.71.

Directional prints: 1) **$300C** net premium +$11.0M — massive bullish bet, likely bought calls. 2) **$302.50C 4/10** vol 6,846 vs OI 794 — fresh, high-volume call buying near the 1w EM high. 3) **$292.50P 4/10** vol 2,512 vs OI 791 — could be opening protective puts (bearish) or closing short puts (bullish); given net premium, closing shorts is more consistent.

Unusual: $335P 4/17 with IV 57.4% — likely an OTM protective put purchase, a tail hedge against the bullish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings vol kink (5/1) presents IV crush risk for long premium holders post-4/23.

!Call OI wall at $315-$340 presents stiff resistance, limiting upside momentum.

!A break below the 1w EM low ($285.01) could trigger a rapid unwind of bullish positioning.

!Positive GEX regime can flip if spot moves >±3%, potentially accelerating a breakout.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares with a stop below $285.	Range-bound chop within the pin; time cost of capital.
Short Stock	Weak	Avoid. Contradicts bullish flow and positive GEX.	Pinning action and upward drift create whipsaw.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Against existing shares, sell 4/17 $305C (near 2w EM high) for ~$4.00-$5.00.	Stock rallies through short call, capping upside.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 $285/$280 put spread (below 1w EM low). Credit ~$1.20-$1.50.	Break below $285 triggers max loss.
Long Calls	Moderate	Buy 4/17 $300C for directional exposure. Debit ~$6.00-$7.00.	Time decay and IV crush if spot stalls.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Weak	Avoid as primary. If hedging, use 4/17 $285P.	Pinning GEX and bullish flow stifle downward movement.
Iron Condor	Moderate	GEX positive AND IV high. $285/$280P x $305/$310C 4/17.	Bullish drift pushes spot toward upper wing.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Call Calendar: Sell 5/1 $295C (IV 37.0%), Buy 4/17 $295C (IV 29.7%). Credit ~$2.00-$2.50.	Directional move through strikes.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027 $250C (~$52.00), sell 4/17 $305C against for ~$4.50.	Spot drifts sideways, eroding theta on short leg.

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread (Multi-Week)

Sell 4/17 $285/$280 Put Spread.

Direct expression of the bullish, pinning regime. Collect premium with defined risk below the 1w EM low, aligning with the upward MP drift.

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $3.80

BE: $283.80

Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit on a daily close below $285.

Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure without owning shares.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell 5/1 $295 Call / Buy 4/17 $295 Call.

Capitalizes on the rich term structure (5/1 IV 37.0% vs. 4/17 29.7%) to harvest event premium. Profits from IV decay in the short leg post-earnings, with a neutral-to-bullish bias.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: Unlimited above strikes; limited below (width minus credit)

BE: Complex; primarily IV decay.

Mgmt: Close when short IV collapses post-4/23 earnings or if spot moves >$10 from $295. Target 50-70% of credit.

Volatility traders looking to exploit the earnings IV kink without a strong directional bet.

LEAPS Diagonal Call (Structural)

Buy 2027 $250 Call, Sell 4/17 $305 Call against it.

The 45+ DTE long leg captures the structural bullish thesis (rising MP, bullish flow) with low time decay. The short leg generates income against the expected multi-week drift toward $305. The extra time improves risk/reward by providing a deep ITM anchor that is largely immune to near-term chop.

Credit: $4.00-$5.00

Max loss: Limited to cost of LEAPS minus net credits received

BE: Complex; stock price must be above LEAPS strike + net debit at expiry.

Mgmt: Roll the short call up and out monthly for credits. Close the entire position if the bullish flow regime breaks (net premium turns negative >$20M).

Traders with larger capital seeking leveraged, long-term bullish exposure with monthly income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $290 (near 4/10 MP) and bounces on the 5-min chart → Enter Bull Put Spread: Sell 4/17 $285/$280 put spread.

IFSpot tags $300 (1w EM high) and stalls → Sell 4/17 $305/$310 call spread for a credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks and closes below $285 (1w EM low proxy) → Exit all short put positions (put spreads, condor put wings).

EXITNet premium flips to negative (> -$10M) → Reduce bullish exposure (take profits on call spreads, put spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bullish grind toward $295-$305, driven by strong pinning GEX and newly confirmed bullish flow. Invalidation is a close below the 1w EM low ($285). The regime favors bullish premium selling (put spreads, covered calls) and volatility arbitrage (reverse calendars). Top Play 1 (put spread) is for defined-risk bulls, Play 2 (reverse calendar) is for vol harvesters, and Play 3 (LEAPS diagonal) is for leveraged, long-term bullish positioning.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.